Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Trump’s mixed signals for gas market

Incoming administration’s policies might eventually lead to decrease in US LNG exports to EU

World - Financial Times - November 13

Election Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Prediction markets, which surged to prominence during the presidential campaign, started reflecting a likely Trump win several weeks ago, even as opinion polls showed a tight race.

Business - The New York Times - November 6

Why Trump’s Victory Is Fueling a Market Frenzy

Investors have been comforted by a clear election result and are anticipating tax cuts and deregulation from a second Trump administration.

Business - The New York Times - November 12

Stock market opens with record highs after Trump’s 2024 victory

The Dow Jones opened with record highs Wednesday after Donald Trump won back the White House. NBC’s Christine Romans joins TODAY to discuss how Trump’s stance on the economy and support from Tesla ...

DJT stock soars amid Donald Trump's rise in the betting markets

Trump Media's shares have soared with the former President Donald Trump's rise in the betting markets.

Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds

Top platforms had placed Republican ahead but Democrat is catching up and even leads on one app. US election 2024 live: latest polls, results and updates Betting markets have narrowed ...

World - The Guardian - November 4

Wall Street and bitcoin soar to record highs as Trump wins US election

Dollar up and renewable energy stocks down, while shares in president-elect’s media business rise by more than a third. Analysis: Trump policies mean higher prices Business live – latest ...

World - The Guardian - November 6

Mixed reactions to Trump's Cabinet picks

Trump is favored to win, despite his campaign

If Kamala Harris and the Democrats were ever thinking beating Trump would be easy, they were gaslighting themselves.

Politics - The Hill - October 31

Nate Silver: Don't trust the Trump swing in 2024 presidential election polls, betting markets data

Nate Silver is on record saying the presidential election momentum is with Donald Trump, but it's not because polling or markets data has him 100% convinced.

Business - CNBC - October 31

Why ‘Trump trades’ and ‘Harris trades’ could be just regular stock-market bets

Here’s what the S&P 500 sectors are really saying about their presidential election preference.

Business - MarketWatch - November 2

Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead

Harris is now the favorite on betting site Predictit.

Business - MarketWatch - November 3

Bitcoin surges 10% to a record above $76,000 as Trump victory heralds wider crypto adoption and weaker regulation

Crypto assets rose as investors bet that a second Trump administration will widen fiscal deficits and boost bitcoin as a hedge against higher inflation.

Business - CNBC - November 6

Who's in mix for key open Trump Cabinet spot

Welcome to The Hill's Business & Economy newsletter {beacon} Business & Economy Business & Economy The Big Story Trump Treasury pick in limbo A final decision in President-elect Trump's hunt ...

Politics - The Hill - Yesterday

Trump trades take off as voting results tilt in former president’s favor

Traders across an array of asset classes in financial markets were positioning in a way that made it clear they had come to the same assumption long before Tuesday evening’s election results are ...

Business - MarketWatch - November 6

Trump Is Expected to Upend Biden Labor Policies Favoring Unions

After gains by organized labor under President Biden, a second Trump administration is likely to change course on regulation and enforcement.

Business - The New York Times - November 10

Gaetz among least favored Trump Cabinet nominees in new survey

President-elect Trump’s attorney general nominee, former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), is among the least favored of his Cabinet nominees, according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released ...

Politics - The Hill - 5 days ago

H2O.ai improves AI agent accuracy with predictive models

AI agents need to consistent, and H2O.ai believes a mix of generative and predictive AI models is the answer.

Tech - VentureBeat - 3 days ago

Trump’s Energy Policies May Be a Mixed Bag for Oil Companies

The president-elect has promised to make it easier to build energy infrastructure and secure drilling leases. But higher production could hurt prices and profits.

Business - The New York Times - November 7

'Reckless pick': Lawmakers express doubts that Gaetz can get confirmed as attorney general

“I think he has a zero percent shot of getting through the Senate," said Donald Trump ally Rep. Max Miller.

Politics - Politico - November 13

Former Utah Rep. Chris Stewart in the mix for top Trump intel job

Politics - Politico - November 12

Presidential Betting Markets Are a Real-Time Experiment for Regulators—and It Could End Poorly

Billions have been wagered on the presidential election on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The bets are comically bullish on Trump. Are gamblers about to lose a bunch of money?

Business - Inc. - October 30

Investors step up bets that US election will trigger market volatility

Jitters sweep through bond and currency markets before presidential vote

World - Financial Times - November 1

Don’t take the betting market odds on Tuesday’s U.S. election too seriously

This year’s U.S. presidential election has suddenly made betting on politics a topic of mainstream conversation.

Business - MarketWatch - November 4

Gambling on 'vibes' — why the betting markets are getting the election all wrong

The betting markets currently have Donald Trump at a 62% chance of winning Tuesday's election, but this is based on the bettors' models that rely on social media engagement, which may not ...

Politics - The Hill - November 3

Here’s how much money was bet on the 2024 presidential election

Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election; here’s how much people wagered on the race

Business - MarketWatch - November 7

Billions were bet on election odds using online markets

Election betting platforms brought in billions of dollars as users wagered on who would win Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.

The Other Trump Trade That Worries Markets

Robert Lighthizer, who was a huge influence on Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policy, is again a candidate for a top role if the Republican wins next week.

Business - The New York Times - October 31

From 'brilliant' to 'dangerous': Mixed reactions roll in after Trump picks RFK Jr. for top health post

In the hours after President-elect Donald Trump announced that vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was his pick for secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, mixed reactions began ...

Politics - NBC News - November 15

Some exult, others worry: Reactions to Trump's victory are mixed on NATO's eastern flank

Conservative lawmakers in the Polish parliament exulted at Donald Trump’s victory

World - ABC News - November 16

Trump's mass deportations could split 4 million families. How one is getting ready.

Migrant families and immigration advocacy groups are preparing for millions of families to potentially be separated from each other during the mass deportations planned by President-elect Donald ...

Here's why Eli Lilly bounced back, plus mega-caps lag while staples stocks rise

Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.

Business - CNBC - November 8

U.S. stock market hits record highs with boost from election results and Fed announcement

The Dow and S&P 500 have set new records as post-election optimism and a major Fed announcement drive a market surge. CBS News MoneyWatch's Kelly O'Grady explains what's behind the rise.

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