What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025 | Timothy Garton Ash

Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation

There are human activities in which both sides can win. War is not one of them. Either Ukraine wins this war or Russia does. Ukraine’s former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba says bluntly that unless the current trajectory is changed, “we will lose this war”.

To be clear: this is still avoidable. Suppose the roughly four-fifths of Ukrainian territory still controlled by Kyiv gets military commitments from the west strong enough to deter any further Russian advances, secure large-scale investment in economic reconstruction, encourage Ukrainians to return from abroad to rebuild their country, and allow for stable, pro-European politics and reform. In five years, the country joins the EU, and then, under a new US administration, starts the process of entering Nato. Most of Ukraine becomes a sovereign, independent, free country, firmly anchored in the west.

Timothy Garton Ash is a Guardian columnist

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

Topics

Meme stocks were fueled by Roaring Kitty and ‘Trump trades’ this year. What can we expect in 2025?

The return to social media of Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, thrust original meme stocks AMC and GameStop back into the spotlight in 2024.
MarketWatch - 1d
What we know about the death of Russia's chemical weapons head

Ukraine is claiming responsibility for a Tuesday explosion that killed top Russian military general and chemical weapons expert Igor Kirillov. CBS News international reporter Haley Ott has the ...
CBS News - 4d
Did 'What We Do in the Shadows' create a 'perfect' finale? We discuss

Times staff writer Tracy Brown and television editor Maira Garcia discuss the finale of FX's vampire comedy, favorite moments and what made the series so special.
Los Angeles Times - 4d
What we know about Russia's attack on Ukraine's power grid

Russia is aiming to impact Ukraine's people during the harsh winter months by attacking the power grid. CBS News' Ellee Watson reports on Russia's latest attack.
CBS News - Dec. 13
What we know about Russia's major aerial attack on Ukraine

We're learning more about a large-scale aerial attack Russia launched on Ukraine overnight, targeting the country's energy facilities. CBS News foreign correspondent Chris Livesay and CBS News ...
CBS News - Dec. 13
4 ways Trump is already winning in 2025

While all the heat and light are on Trump’s immigration policy, Elon Musk and Pete Hegseth, Trump has made four smart below-the-radar moves that could yield significant political and policy ...
The Hill - Dec. 12
Ukraine faces a cold, dark winter after Russia’s energy strikes

Russia’s targeted strikes on civilian infrastructure have left us in a perilous situation that cannot be remedied without outside help.
The Hill - Dec. 11
Russia sees 'no grounds for negotiations' with Ukraine, Putin spokesperson says

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the Izvestia newspaper in an interview published Wednesday that Russia sees "no grounds for negotiations yet" to end Moscow's war.
ABC News - Dec. 4
‘It’s about consequences’: what can we expect from Wicked: Part Two?

The much-anticipated first part of the blockbuster musical adaptation has bewitched audiences worldwide, but there are dark times ahead in the sequel. Spoilers ahead Despite more than a year ...
The Guardian - Dec. 2