4 ways Trump is already winning in 2025

The political world is in an odd state of confusion. After nine years of non-stop panic and rage at Donald Trump, Democrats have temporarily given up — or, more likely, are taking a long breath before starting up again. One benefit of this pause in the outrage machine is the opportunity to take a more measured view of the president-elect and his actions.

While all the heat and light are on Trump’s immigration policy, Elon Musk and Pete Hegseth, Trump has made four smart below-the-radar moves that could yield significant political and policy dividends in the future.

First, isolationist conservatives may not like it, but his designation of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of State may be Trump’s sharpest transition move. While some in the MAGA world are unhappy with Rubio’s position on Russia and Ukraine, he likely won’t be driving the bus on that issue – it’s just too high-profile for a secretary of State to dominate.

It is the mounting crises in Latin America where Rubio will be most useful. While President Biden and his incompetent national security team were sleeping, important Caribbean basin states were falling deeper into authoritarianism and dysfunction. Haiti is a flat-out failed state (no thanks to the grifting Bill Clinton and his fumbling foundation). Venezuela and Nicaragua became practically dictatorships under Biden’s watch.

But, worst of all, Cuba is collapsing. Millions have fled, the electric grid is collapsing regularly and the economy is in free-fall. It is not out of the question that Cuba's government could degrade into “Lord of the Flies” chaos. Would Ortega (Nicaragua) or Maduro (Venezuela) land troops to prop up the Marxist dictatorship, creating a de facto puppet state?

A Biden or even Harris administration would likely be flummoxed by internal collapse or external aggression. They certainly had no solutions for the last four years. But Rubio has held an intense interest in the region and is likely much more attuned. Expect a better prepared Trump administration for trouble in the Caribbean with Rubio at State.

The second point of interest is Trump’s tariff game, which is dangerous. If rising tariffs lead to inflation, he will pay a severe political price. Since raising the price of goods is the whole point of tariffs, prices do have to rise, or else, what’s the point?

But Trump is right to make his threats now, particularly when it comes to Mexico and Canada.

Both of America’s neighbors are problematic. Drug smuggling is rampant, and Mexico’s crime problem is growing, not shrinking. As for Canada, despite leftist fetishizing of the country, it has been freeloading off American defense for decades, spending far below the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP. In addition, its military is in atrocious condition.

By throwing down the gauntlet now, Trump can start the negotiating process and potentially avoid a regrettable tariff hike. Only a fool (or Joe Biden) thinks playing nice results in deals over contentious issues like migration, drugs and defense spending. Trump is playing the initial game right: make people know you mean business now rather than later.

Third comes the recess appointment. Soon after winning, Trump started pressing Senate Republicans to allow him to short-circuit the Senate confirmation process for his appointments. Of course, he undermined his credibility on the matter by proposing the odious and extraordinarily unqualified Matt Gaetz for attorney general. Regardless, Trump is on to something pushing for more recess appointments.

The confirmation process is supposed to simply vet the president’s appointees and ensure they qualify for the office. Confirmation is not intended to be a re-run of the previous election. The nation elected a president, and he should be able to staff his administration. If Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wants to staff the federal government, then she needs to figure out a way to win the presidency.

Unfortunately, over the last 30 years, the confirmation process has devolved into a partisan contest — not just at the Cabinet level, but all the way down to undersecretaries, directors and anything other office stuck wending through the Senate. Woe be to the Democrat who votes for a Trump nominee. That senator is sure to be subject to the wrath of the permanent partisan outrage machine and the various PACs targeting any apostate with destruction.

Thumbing his nose at the entire process might bring needed reform to a broken system. The number of nominees subject to confirmation should shrink and the process needs to be streamlined. Presidents need to have a government — that’s what the people voted for.

Finally, Trump has avoided being consumed by fraught and emotional social issues. So far he has avoided trouble by leaning in to what’s popular and avoiding what is not.

Popular? Ending DEI and stopping transgender surgeries on children. Unpopular? Restrictions on abortion.

For Trump, abortion always seemed a transactional issue. In 2016 he went all in, as he needed to get the hard-core pro-life vote for the Republican nomination and keep evangelicals in his camp through the general election.

And then the dog caught the car.

This was always a nagging concern with some pro-life activists. What if Roe is overturned? Then what? Well, now they know. The result has been a massive backlash, with pro-choice constitutional amendments passing throughout the country, even in conservative states such as Missouri and Montana. Among the few “victories” was a referendum in Florida failing to get the required supermajority — but still getting more than 57 percent of the vote.

Trump has agonized over this issue, spinning around like a weathervane, trying to placate pro-life voters while not completely alienating pro-choice voters. He likely would prefer this whole issue to go away so he can focus on the issues he really cares about: immigration, trade, the economy and national security (coincidentally, issues most voters care about).

So far, Trump has wisely avoided talking abortion policy or making any firm commitments, as it is all cost and no reward. He probably cannot keep this up forever. The pro-life lobby will surely make attempts to push bits and pieces of their agenda at the federal level, whether restricting contraception access or regulated abortion at the federal level.

Trump would be wise to call their bluff.

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.

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