Women’s March Madness bracket prep: Strengths, weaknesses for all 68 teams, outlooks and more
So, you want to be a No. 1 seed, do you?
For only the sixth time, four teams ranked No. 1 throughout the regular season (South Carolina, UCLA, Notre Dame, and Texas). Any game. Any night. An upset could happen.
And what a perfect way to usher in March Madness for what is poised to be another fantastic few weeks of basketball to put a cap on a season filled with storylines and moments. Unlike last season, when South Carolina entered the NCAA Tournament at 32-0, there are a number of teams who could leave Tampa as the NCAA champions.
Texas? Heck yes. UConn? What an ending for Paige Bueckers. South Carolina? Never bet against Dawn Staley. UCLA? Lauren Betts is HER. Notre Dame? How will teams stop Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron? Will JuJu Watkins and USC put on a show? Then there’s NC State, LSU, Baylor, North Carolina and so on.
It’s March Madness, and it’s setting up to be yet another eventful NCAA Tournament.
Like every year, seeding and injuries will play a big part in tournament success as well as teams who are playing at another level right now. This season, that could be Duke, as the Blue Devils took out Notre Dame and NC State en route to the ACC tournament title.
There will be a lot of attention on players like Bueckers, Miles, Citron, Te-Hina Paopao, and Kiki Iriafen as they play in what could be their last college games before declaring for the WNBA Draft. But we’ll also have a young crop of freshmen and sophomores to keep an eye on. Hidalgo, Texas’ Madison Booker and USC’s Watkins have followed up their respective freshmen seasons with standout sophomore efforts. Freshmen Sarah Strong (UConn), Mikayla Blakes (Vanderbilt), Syla Swords (Michigan) and Joyce Edwards (South Carolina) will all be making their tournament debuts as well.
Study up with our guide on all 68 teams below. Fill out your bracket. Set up your casting devices. Block off time on your calendar.
It’s time to get ready for March Madness.
UCLA
Strengths: Lauren Betts gets the rightful attention, but UCLA has a plethora of talent that gets the job done on both ends of the court. The Bruins’ only regular-season Big Ten losses came to USC. Kiki Rice is a great second option to Betts, averaging 12.8 points and 4.8 assists per game to go with Betts’ 19.6 points and 9.7 rebounds. The Bruins rank 19th nationally in points per game (78.8) and 31st in scoring defense (57.2). They get it done on both ends.
Weaknesses: How picky do we want to be? Do we want to look at the Bruins’ free-throw rate sitting at 15.3 percent? That the Bruins are only middle of the road at getting to the line? That it apparently only loses to USC? Fair, since many tournament games come down to foul shots. But UCLA truly doesn’t have a major weakness. The biggest concern is that UCLA won two of its final five regular-season games by six and two points, respectively, over Michigan State and Iowa. But again, we’re being picky here.
Outlook: UCLA is set to make a deep tournament run. It rebounds well, finds the efficient shot inside of the arc and executes. Unless UCLA runs into a team that is clicking on all cylinders (or USC), or it’s forced to get into a shootout (26.5 percent of its points come from behind the arc), look for UCLA in Tampa.
Strengths: Lauren Betts gets the rightful attention, but UCLA has a plethora of talent that gets the job done on both ends of the court. The Bruins’ only regular-season Big Ten losses came to USC. Kiki Rice is a great second option to Betts, averaging 12.8 points and 4.8 assists per game to go with Betts’ 19.6 points and 9.7 rebounds. The Bruins rank 19th nationally in points per game (78.8) and 31st in scoring defense (57.2). They get it done on both ends.
Weaknesses: How picky do we want to be? Do we want to look at the Bruins’ free-throw rate sitting at 15.3 percent? That the Bruins are only middle of the road at getting to the line? That it apparently only loses to USC? Fair, since many tournament games come down to foul shots. But UCLA truly doesn’t have a major weakness. The biggest concern is that UCLA won two of its final five regular-season games by six and two points, respectively, over Michigan State and Iowa. But again, we’re being picky here.
Outlook: UCLA is set to make a deep tournament run. It rebounds well, finds the efficient shot inside of the arc and executes. Unless UCLA runs into a team that is clicking on all cylinders (or USC), or it’s forced to get into a shootout (26.5 percent of its points come from behind the arc), look for UCLA in Tampa.
Strengths: Lauren Betts gets the rightful attention, but UCLA has a plethora of talent that gets the job done on both ends of the court. The Bruins’ only regular-season Big Ten losses came to USC. Kiki Rice is a great second option to Betts, averaging 12.8 points and 4.8 assists per game to go with Betts’ 19.6 points and 9.7 rebounds. The Bruins rank 19th nationally in points per game (78.8) and 31st in scoring defense (57.2). They get it done on both ends.
Weaknesses: How picky do we want to be? Do we want to look at the Bruins’ free-throw rate sitting at 15.3 percent? That the Bruins are only middle of the road at getting to the line? That it apparently only loses to USC? Fair, since many tournament games come down to foul shots. But UCLA truly doesn’t have a major weakness. The biggest concern is that UCLA won two of its final five regular-season games by six and two points, respectively, over Michigan State and Iowa. But again, we’re being picky here.
Outlook: UCLA is set to make a deep tournament run. It rebounds well, finds the efficient shot inside of the arc and executes. Unless UCLA runs into a team that is clicking on all cylinders (or USC), or it’s forced to get into a shootout (26.5 percent of its points come from behind the arc), look for UCLA in Tampa.
What to know: Regular-season Big Ten dominance, with only three wins decided by single digits.
Coach: Cori Close, five Sweet 16s, one Elite Eight
Player to watch: Lauren Betts
South Carolina
Strengths: Don’t get it twisted. Even with the three losses, South Carolina is still the nation’s premiere basketball program, and it should be a Final Four favorite until it shows us differently. Just look at its dominating showing in the SEC tournament, winning each game by at least 18 points. Dawn Staley is exceptional at getting the most out of her players, and she’s mastered the rotation this year. Eight Gamecocks players log at least 19.1 minutes per game, which allows her to mix and match players based on the flow of the game and the opponent. South Carolina’s leading scorers actually come off of the bench, as freshman Joyce Edwards (13.2) and sophomore MiLaysia Fulwiley (12) bring a spark off the bench.
Weaknesses: South Carolina hasn’t played cupcakes this season. Its three losses came to UCLA, Texas and UConn. But against UCLA (15 points) and UConn (29), it was blown out. The UConn loss is the second-largest for a Dawn Staley-coached South Carolina team at home in her career. In all three losses, the Gamecocks shot below 38 percent. They have only five such games this year shooting below that mark – and three of them resulted in losses.
Outlook: Reggie Jackson in October. Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Shawn Michaels at Wreslemania. Bet against them at your own risk. South Carolina is in that conversation, as well. It has the depth, the discipline and the talent to go back-to-back.
Strengths: Don’t get it twisted. Even with the three losses, South Carolina is still the nation’s premiere basketball program, and it should be a Final Four favorite until it shows us differently. Just look at its dominating showing in the SEC tournament, winning each game by at least 18 points. Dawn Staley is exceptional at getting the most out of her players, and she’s mastered the rotation this year. Eight Gamecocks players log at least 19.1 minutes per game, which allows her to mix and match players based on the flow of the game and the opponent. South Carolina’s leading scorers actually come off of the bench, as freshman Joyce Edwards (13.2) and sophomore MiLaysia Fulwiley (12) bring a spark off the bench.
Weaknesses: South Carolina hasn’t played cupcakes this season. Its three losses came to UCLA, Texas and UConn. But against UCLA (15 points) and UConn (29), it was blown out. The UConn loss is the second-largest for a Dawn Staley-coached South Carolina team at home in her career. In all three losses, the Gamecocks shot below 38 percent. They have only five such games this year shooting below that mark – and three of them resulted in losses.
Outlook: Reggie Jackson in October. Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Shawn Michaels at Wreslemania. Bet against them at your own risk. South Carolina is in that conversation, as well. It has the depth, the discipline and the talent to go back-to-back.
Strengths: Don’t get it twisted. Even with the three losses, South Carolina is still the nation’s premiere basketball program, and it should be a Final Four favorite until it shows us differently. Just look at its dominating showing in the SEC tournament, winning each game by at least 18 points. Dawn Staley is exceptional at getting the most out of her players, and she’s mastered the rotation this year. Eight Gamecocks players log at least 19.1 minutes per game, which allows her to mix and match players based on the flow of the game and the opponent. South Carolina’s leading scorers actually come off of the bench, as freshman Joyce Edwards (13.2) and sophomore MiLaysia Fulwiley (12) bring a spark off the bench.
Weaknesses: South Carolina hasn’t played cupcakes this season. Its three losses came to UCLA, Texas and UConn. But against UCLA (15 points) and UConn (29), it was blown out. The UConn loss is the second-largest for a Dawn Staley-coached South Carolina team at home in her career. In all three losses, the Gamecocks shot below 38 percent. They have only five such games this year shooting below that mark – and three of them resulted in losses.
Outlook: Reggie Jackson in October. Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Shawn Michaels at Wreslemania. Bet against them at your own risk. South Carolina is in that conversation, as well. It has the depth, the discipline and the talent to go back-to-back.
What to know: South Carolina’s three losses this season are as many games as the program lost from 2021-2024.
Coach: Dawn Staley, four Sweet 16s, one Elite Eight, three championships
Player to watch: Chloe Kitts
Texas
Strengths: Texas is as well-balanced of a team as you can find. Sophomore Madison Booker is having another standout season, and with Rori Harmon healthy, it’s making all of the difference. Texas thrives at creating second chances off of offensive rebounds, as it is No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebound rate and is eighth in offensive rebounds per game.
Weaknesses: It’s not a stretch to say that Texas is the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. No, really. It ranks No. 361 out of 362 teams in points from three (12.3 percent) and dead last in three-point rate (14.6 percent), and as a team, it’s shooting just 29.6 percent from behind the arc. Outside of the propensity to commit fouls that the Longhorns have, the 3-ball is the only weakness they have as a unit.
Outlook: The SEC regular season wasn’t a challenge for Texas, as its 23 average margin of victory provided a soft cushion in most games. But this is the NCAA Tournament, baby. It is deep, with the three-headed team of Booker, Harmon and Taylor Jones. But if Texas gets into a shootout, it could struggle, as only Booker and Jordan Lee are consistent threats from behind the arc. If its shooters can knock down shots, Texas should make a nice run.
Strengths: Texas is as well-balanced of a team as you can find. Sophomore Madison Booker is having another standout season, and with Rori Harmon healthy, it’s making all of the difference. Texas thrives at creating second chances off of offensive rebounds, as it is No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebound rate and is eighth in offensive rebounds per game.
Weaknesses: It’s not a stretch to say that Texas is the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. No, really. It ranks No. 361 out of 362 teams in points from three (12.3 percent) and dead last in three-point rate (14.6 percent), and as a team, it’s shooting just 29.6 percent from behind the arc. Outside of the propensity to commit fouls that the Longhorns have, the 3-ball is the only weakness they have as a unit.
Outlook: The SEC regular season wasn’t a challenge for Texas, as its 23 average margin of victory provided a soft cushion in most games. But this is the NCAA Tournament, baby. It is deep, with the three-headed team of Booker, Harmon and Taylor Jones. But if Texas gets into a shootout, it could struggle, as only Booker and Jordan Lee are consistent threats from behind the arc. If its shooters can knock down shots, Texas should make a nice run.
Strengths: Texas is as well-balanced of a team as you can find. Sophomore Madison Booker is having another standout season, and with Rori Harmon healthy, it’s making all of the difference. Texas thrives at creating second chances off of offensive rebounds, as it is No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebound rate and is eighth in offensive rebounds per game.
Weaknesses: It’s not a stretch to say that Texas is the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. No, really. It ranks No. 361 out of 362 teams in points from three (12.3 percent) and dead last in three-point rate (14.6 percent), and as a team, it’s shooting just 29.6 percent from behind the arc. Outside of the propensity to commit fouls that the Longhorns have, the 3-ball is the only weakness they have as a unit.
Outlook: The SEC regular season wasn’t a challenge for Texas, as its 23 average margin of victory provided a soft cushion in most games. But this is the NCAA Tournament, baby. It is deep, with the three-headed team of Booker, Harmon and Taylor Jones. But if Texas gets into a shootout, it could struggle, as only Booker and Jordan Lee are consistent threats from behind the arc. If its shooters can knock down shots, Texas should make a nice run.
What to know: The Longhorns proved up to the SEC challenge in their first year, leading the nation in NET rating.
Coach: Vic Schaefer, one Sweet 16, four Elite Eights, two Final Fours
Player to watch: Madison Booker
USC
Strengths: The biggest plus is that USC has JuJu Watkins. The sophomore is one of — if not the — best players in the nation. Watkins is averaging 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 combined steals and blocks per game. The biggest difference from last year to this year is the defensive step up USC has taken. This season, its defensive rating is 78.9 percent, which is in the 98th percentile and about 10 percent more than last season. Much of that can be attributed to Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen, a likely first-round pick in the WNBA Draft, who leads all starters with an 82.5 defensive rating.
Weaknesses: USC can win it all, so there’s not really a glaring issue. The only thing one can point out, perhaps, is that it isn’t an elite 3-point shooting team. The Trojans shot 32.4 percent from downtown this year, with just 25.4 percent of its overall points coming from behind the arc. In its two regular-season losses (to Notre Dame and Iowa), USC shot 7.7 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively.
Outlook: Watkins alone is enough reason to project USC can make a Final Four. When she’s locked in, there’s no better player. If she imagines each opponent is UCLA, there’s not a team that can contain her and her teammates.
Strengths: The biggest plus is that USC has JuJu Watkins. The sophomore is one of — if not the — best players in the nation. Watkins is averaging 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 combined steals and blocks per game. The biggest difference from last year to this year is the defensive step up USC has taken. This season, its defensive rating is 78.9 percent, which is in the 98th percentile and about 10 percent more than last season. Much of that can be attributed to Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen, a likely first-round pick in the WNBA Draft, who leads all starters with an 82.5 defensive rating.
Weaknesses: USC can win it all, so there’s not really a glaring issue. The only thing one can point out, perhaps, is that it isn’t an elite 3-point shooting team. The Trojans shot 32.4 percent from downtown this year, with just 25.4 percent of its overall points coming from behind the arc. In its two regular-season losses (to Notre Dame and Iowa), USC shot 7.7 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively.
Outlook: Watkins alone is enough reason to project USC can make a Final Four. When she’s locked in, there’s no better player. If she imagines each opponent is UCLA, there’s not a team that can contain her and her teammates.
Strengths: The biggest plus is that USC has JuJu Watkins. The sophomore is one of — if not the — best players in the nation. Watkins is averaging 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 combined steals and blocks per game. The biggest difference from last year to this year is the defensive step up USC has taken. This season, its defensive rating is 78.9 percent, which is in the 98th percentile and about 10 percent more than last season. Much of that can be attributed to Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen, a likely first-round pick in the WNBA Draft, who leads all starters with an 82.5 defensive rating.
Weaknesses: USC can win it all, so there’s not really a glaring issue. The only thing one can point out, perhaps, is that it isn’t an elite 3-point shooting team. The Trojans shot 32.4 percent from downtown this year, with just 25.4 percent of its overall points coming from behind the arc. In its two regular-season losses (to Notre Dame and Iowa), USC shot 7.7 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively.
Outlook: Watkins alone is enough reason to project USC can make a Final Four. When she’s locked in, there’s no better player. If she imagines each opponent is UCLA, there’s not a team that can contain her and her teammates.
What to know: It’s JuJu Watkins’ world. USC can ride the best player in the nation to a title.
Coach: Lindsay Gottlieb, one Elite Eight, one Final Four
Player to watch: Kiki Iriafen
NC State
Strengths: When NC State is clicking, it can compete with anyone. Look no further than knocking off No. 1 Notre Dame in February. It features a well-balanced team with four players averaging double-figures in scoring, led by senior Aziaha James. Though NC State ranks low in forced turnovers per game, it makes up for it by fouling the least in the nation. It has picked up the average pace for the fourth straight year, allowing it to make more of a concerted effort to run its offense through James, Zoe Brooks and Saniya Rivers.
Weaknesses: Down the stretch of the regular season, NC State showed that it could hang with anyone. But earlier in the season, it lost three of its first seven games to South Carolina, TCU and LSU – all high-ranking NCAA Tournament teams. We saw the struggles happen again in the ACC Tournament, when it escaped with a victory over Georgia Tech and before losing to Duke. Its defense regressed this season as it was unable to create turnovers at a high rate. The Wolfpack are allowing 65.4 points per game, which is their highest mark since the 2013-2014 season.
Outlook: Which NC State team will show up? It’s a veteran-led team with Rivers, James and Madison Hayes leading the way alongside the sophomore Brooks. The key player for the Wolfpack to make a run is Tilda Trygger, the sophomore out of Sweden. Trygger has improved leaps and bounds defensively as the season has progressed, making her a potential ACC all-defensive team member in the years to come. If Trygger can hold down the interior and Rivers, James and Co., can play to their offensive potential, NC State can make a deep run as it looks to make back-to-back Final Fours.
Strengths: When NC State is clicking, it can compete with anyone. Look no further than knocking off No. 1 Notre Dame in February. It features a well-balanced team with four players averaging double-figures in scoring, led by senior Aziaha James. Though NC State ranks low in forced turnovers per game, it makes up for it by fouling the least in the nation. It has picked up the average pace for the fourth straight year, allowing it to make more of a concerted effort to run its offense through James, Zoe Brooks and Saniya Rivers.
Weaknesses: Down the stretch of the regular season, NC State showed that it could hang with anyone. But earlier in the season, it lost three of its first seven games to South Carolina, TCU and LSU – all high-ranking NCAA Tournament teams. We saw the struggles happen again in the ACC Tournament, when it escaped with a victory over Georgia Tech and before losing to Duke. Its defense regressed this season as it was unable to create turnovers at a high rate. The Wolfpack are allowing 65.4 points per game, which is their highest mark since the 2013-2014 season.
Outlook: Which NC State team will show up? It’s a veteran-led team with Rivers, James and Madison Hayes leading the way alongside the sophomore Brooks. The key player for the Wolfpack to make a run is Tilda Trygger, the sophomore out of Sweden. Trygger has improved leaps and bounds defensively as the season has progressed, making her a potential ACC all-defensive team member in the years to come. If Trygger can hold down the interior and Rivers, James and Co., can play to their offensive potential, NC State can make a deep run as it looks to make back-to-back Final Fours.
Strengths: When NC State is clicking, it can compete with anyone. Look no further than knocking off No. 1 Notre Dame in February. It features a well-balanced team with four players averaging double-figures in scoring, led by senior Aziaha James. Though NC State ranks low in forced turnovers per game, it makes up for it by fouling the least in the nation. It has picked up the average pace for the fourth straight year, allowing it to make more of a concerted effort to run its offense through James, Zoe Brooks and Saniya Rivers.
Weaknesses: Down the stretch of the regular season, NC State showed that it could hang with anyone. But earlier in the season, it lost three of its first seven games to South Carolina, TCU and LSU – all high-ranking NCAA Tournament teams. We saw the struggles happen again in the ACC Tournament, when it escaped with a victory over Georgia Tech and before losing to Duke. Its defense regressed this season as it was unable to create turnovers at a high rate. The Wolfpack are allowing 65.4 points per game, which is their highest mark since the 2013-2014 season.
Outlook: Which NC State team will show up? It’s a veteran-led team with Rivers, James and Madison Hayes leading the way alongside the sophomore Brooks. The key player for the Wolfpack to make a run is Tilda Trygger, the sophomore out of Sweden. Trygger has improved leaps and bounds defensively as the season has progressed, making her a potential ACC all-defensive team member in the years to come. If Trygger can hold down the interior and Rivers, James and Co., can play to their offensive potential, NC State can make a deep run as it looks to make back-to-back Final Fours.
What to know: The Wolfpack’s offense improved this year, but their defense took a step back.
Coach: Wes Moore, three Sweet 16s, one Elite Eight, one Final Four
Player to watch: Tilda Trygger
Duke
Strengths: The scary part about Duke is that its core can run it back next season, too. The only senior who averages regular playing time is Vanessa de Jesus as the Blue Devils are led by juniors, sophomores and standout freshman Toby Fournier. Fournier finished the regular season averaging 23 points over the final three games. She’s Duke’s leading scorer, and she comes off the bench. This is a deep, well-balanced team.
Weaknesses: The charity stripe is a minus in more than one way. Duke ranked No. 304 in the country in number of fouls committed, and it’s shooting 68.8 percent from the line.
Outlook: Duke had a couple quality wins (No. 22 UNC, No. 27 Floriday State, No. 18 Oklahoma and No. 8 Kansas State), but it struggled against top-tier competition this year overall before going on its run during the ACC tournament by beating NC State and Notre Dame. Duke can usually hang in games, but will lacking senior leadership prevent a long run, or will its momentum continue?
Strengths: The scary part about Duke is that its core can run it back next season, too. The only senior who averages regular playing time is Vanessa de Jesus as the Blue Devils are led by juniors, sophomores and standout freshman Toby Fournier. Fournier finished the regular season averaging 23 points over the final three games. She’s Duke’s leading scorer, and she comes off the bench. This is a deep, well-balanced team.
Weaknesses: The charity stripe is a minus in more than one way. Duke ranked No. 304 in the country in number of fouls committed, and it’s shooting 68.8 percent from the line.
Outlook: Duke had a couple quality wins (No. 22 UNC, No. 27 Floriday State, No. 18 Oklahoma and No. 8 Kansas State), but it struggled against top-tier competition this year overall before going on its run during the ACC tournament by beating NC State and Notre Dame. Duke can usually hang in games, but will lacking senior leadership prevent a long run, or will its momentum continue?
Strengths: The scary part about Duke is that its core can run it back next season, too. The only senior who averages regular playing time is Vanessa de Jesus as the Blue Devils are led by juniors, sophomores and standout freshman Toby Fournier. Fournier finished the regular season averaging 23 points over the final three games. She’s Duke’s leading scorer, and she comes off the bench. This is a deep, well-balanced team.
Weaknesses: The charity stripe is a minus in more than one way. Duke ranked No. 304 in the country in number of fouls committed, and it’s shooting 68.8 percent from the line.
Outlook: Duke had a couple quality wins (No. 22 UNC, No. 27 Floriday State, No. 18 Oklahoma and No. 8 Kansas State), but it struggled against top-tier competition this year overall before going on its run during the ACC tournament by beating NC State and Notre Dame. Duke can usually hang in games, but will lacking senior leadership prevent a long run, or will its momentum continue?
What to know:The Blue Devils (14.9) averaged the fewest turnovers per game as a program since 2003-2004 (14.5).
Coach: Kara Lawson, one Sweet 16
Player to watch: Toby Fournier
TCU
Strengths: Last season, TCU was hit with the injury bug in a major way. This year, the Horned Frogs are one of the nation’s best teams. TCU is filled with transfer players (10 of 13 players played at at least one other college). But it has a veteran presence led by Hailey Van Lith, Madison Conner, Sedona Prince, Agnes Emma-Nnopu and Taylor Bigby.
Weaknesses: Though the offense and defense are both elite, the Horned Frogs play at a slow pace. Their 68 possessions per 40 minutes ranks in the 23rd percentile in the country. Interior defense is also a strength, but it struggles in the passing lane, sagging off and not creating turnovers via steals.
Outlook: TCU has one of the best starting units, as everyone plays her role well. Van Lith has been resurrected after her stop in LSU last year. TCU’s only losses were against South Carolina, Oklahoma State and Kansas State – all in the Top 25 at the time they played. If TCU can control the tempo, a Final Four run isn’t out of the question. But if it is forced to speed up its pace, it will be tested.
Strengths: Last season, TCU was hit with the injury bug in a major way. This year, the Horned Frogs are one of the nation’s best teams. TCU is filled with transfer players (10 of 13 players played at at least one other college). But it has a veteran presence led by Hailey Van Lith, Madison Conner, Sedona Prince, Agnes Emma-Nnopu and Taylor Bigby.
Weaknesses: Though the offense and defense are both elite, the Horned Frogs play at a slow pace. Their 68 possessions per 40 minutes ranks in the 23rd percentile in the country. Interior defense is also a strength, but it struggles in the passing lane, sagging off and not creating turnovers via steals.
Outlook: TCU has one of the best starting units, as everyone plays her role well. Van Lith has been resurrected after her stop in LSU last year. TCU’s only losses were against South Carolina, Oklahoma State and Kansas State – all in the Top 25 at the time they played. If TCU can control the tempo, a Final Four run isn’t out of the question. But if it is forced to speed up its pace, it will be tested.
Strengths: Last season, TCU was hit with the injury bug in a major way. This year, the Horned Frogs are one of the nation’s best teams. TCU is filled with transfer players (10 of 13 players played at at least one other college). But it has a veteran presence led by Hailey Van Lith, Madison Conner, Sedona Prince, Agnes Emma-Nnopu and Taylor Bigby.
Weaknesses: Though the offense and defense are both elite, the Horned Frogs play at a slow pace. Their 68 possessions per 40 minutes ranks in the 23rd percentile in the country. Interior defense is also a strength, but it struggles in the passing lane, sagging off and not creating turnovers via steals.
Outlook: TCU has one of the best starting units, as everyone plays her role well. Van Lith has been resurrected after her stop in LSU last year. TCU’s only losses were against South Carolina, Oklahoma State and Kansas State – all in the Top 25 at the time they played. If TCU can control the tempo, a Final Four run isn’t out of the question. But if it is forced to speed up its pace, it will be tested.
What to know: TCU shattered its previous record for wins in a season this year behind elite offense.
Coach: Mark Campbell
Player to watch: Hailey Van Lith
UConn
Strengths: UConn finished the regular season with three losses – all to top-tier opponents. In two of those (Tennessee and USC), UConn lost by a combined six points. It has simply been one of the best teams in the country this year. Paige Bueckers runs the ship, but Azzi Fudd has come on in the second half of the season, showing the explosiveness she had prior to injuries. The Huskies are in the 100th percentile in NET points, offensive rating, defensive rating and NET rating.
Weaknesses: UConn plays at a slow pace, and with that slow pace, it doesn’t make its way to the free-throw line. It ranks No. 309 in the nation in free-throw attempts. It’s hard to pick apart UConn, but the pace is the only substantial thing that stands out.
Outlook: This is a different UConn team with Fudd playing like Fudd. Freshman Sarah Strong also has a full season under her belt. UConn has a Final-Four-or-bust mentality, and rightfully so. UConn should be considered a heavy favorite to make it to the national championship.
Strengths: UConn finished the regular season with three losses – all to top-tier opponents. In two of those (Tennessee and USC), UConn lost by a combined six points. It has simply been one of the best teams in the country this year. Paige Bueckers runs the ship, but Azzi Fudd has come on in the second half of the season, showing the explosiveness she had prior to injuries. The Huskies are in the 100th percentile in NET points, offensive rating, defensive rating and NET rating.
Weaknesses: UConn plays at a slow pace, and with that slow pace, it doesn’t make its way to the free-throw line. It ranks No. 309 in the nation in free-throw attempts. It’s hard to pick apart UConn, but the pace is the only substantial thing that stands out.
Outlook: This is a different UConn team with Fudd playing like Fudd. Freshman Sarah Strong also has a full season under her belt. UConn has a Final-Four-or-bust mentality, and rightfully so. UConn should be considered a heavy favorite to make it to the national championship.
Strengths: UConn finished the regular season with three losses – all to top-tier opponents. In two of those (Tennessee and USC), UConn lost by a combined six points. It has simply been one of the best teams in the country this year. Paige Bueckers runs the ship, but Azzi Fudd has come on in the second half of the season, showing the explosiveness she had prior to injuries. The Huskies are in the 100th percentile in NET points, offensive rating, defensive rating and NET rating.
Weaknesses: UConn plays at a slow pace, and with that slow pace, it doesn’t make its way to the free-throw line. It ranks No. 309 in the nation in free-throw attempts. It’s hard to pick apart UConn, but the pace is the only substantial thing that stands out.
Outlook: This is a different UConn team with Fudd playing like Fudd. Freshman Sarah Strong also has a full season under her belt. UConn has a Final-Four-or-bust mentality, and rightfully so. UConn should be considered a heavy favorite to make it to the national championship.
What to know: UConn’s roster is deep enough to give Paige Bueckers a storybook ending.
Coach: Geno Auriemma, three Sweet 16, five Elite Eights, 11 Final Fours, one runner-up, 11 championships
Player to watch: Sarah Strong
LSU
Strengths: LSU will set the tone for each of its games. It will run, run, run, averaging 77.1 possessions per 40 minutes. And if opponents aren’t tired enough from that, it’ll bring the physicality on the boards. LSU is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams — on both ends — led by Aneesah Morrow’s 13.6 rebounds per game. Debate will ensue after the tournament about whether her game will translate to the WNBA, but she’s a star for LSU, averaging 18.5 points and 2.6 steals per game to go along with her high rebound numbers.
Weaknesses: It’s not that LSU struggles from behind the arc — it’s just that it gets most of its shot attempts up from 2-point range. LSU leads the nation in 2-pointers attempted and is second in 2-pointers made. If needed to rise to the occasion, will Flau’Jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams be able to step up and hit the outside shots needed?
Outlook: LSU has the experience and the championship pedigree that you look for in March, boasting big-time players with big-time experience. Despite Morrow’s ankle injury and Johnson’s lower-body injury, both seem they’ll be able to play in the tournament. LSU needs both at 100 percent to reach its potential.
Strengths: LSU will set the tone for each of its games. It will run, run, run, averaging 77.1 possessions per 40 minutes. And if opponents aren’t tired enough from that, it’ll bring the physicality on the boards. LSU is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams — on both ends — led by Aneesah Morrow’s 13.6 rebounds per game. Debate will ensue after the tournament about whether her game will translate to the WNBA, but she’s a star for LSU, averaging 18.5 points and 2.6 steals per game to go along with her high rebound numbers.
Weaknesses: It’s not that LSU struggles from behind the arc — it’s just that it gets most of its shot attempts up from 2-point range. LSU leads the nation in 2-pointers attempted and is second in 2-pointers made. If needed to rise to the occasion, will Flau’Jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams be able to step up and hit the outside shots needed?
Outlook: LSU has the experience and the championship pedigree that you look for in March, boasting big-time players with big-time experience. Despite Morrow’s ankle injury and Johnson’s lower-body injury, both seem they’ll be able to play in the tournament. LSU needs both at 100 percent to reach its potential.
Strengths: LSU will set the tone for each of its games. It will run, run, run, averaging 77.1 possessions per 40 minutes. And if opponents aren’t tired enough from that, it’ll bring the physicality on the boards. LSU is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams — on both ends — led by Aneesah Morrow’s 13.6 rebounds per game. Debate will ensue after the tournament about whether her game will translate to the WNBA, but she’s a star for LSU, averaging 18.5 points and 2.6 steals per game to go along with her high rebound numbers.
Weaknesses: It’s not that LSU struggles from behind the arc — it’s just that it gets most of its shot attempts up from 2-point range. LSU leads the nation in 2-pointers attempted and is second in 2-pointers made. If needed to rise to the occasion, will Flau’Jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams be able to step up and hit the outside shots needed?
Outlook: LSU has the experience and the championship pedigree that you look for in March, boasting big-time players with big-time experience. Despite Morrow’s ankle injury and Johnson’s lower-body injury, both seem they’ll be able to play in the tournament. LSU needs both at 100 percent to reach its potential.
What to know: A fast-paced team that dominates the speed of the game and the glass on both ends.
Coach: Kim Mulkey, five Sweet 16s, seven Elite Eights, one Final Four, four championships
Player to watch: Aneesah Morrow
North Carolina
Strengths: UNC’s lineup is so balanced and deep. Four Tar Heels players average double-figures in scoring, led by Maria Gakdeng (11.3 ppg). The offense runs through fifth-year senior Alyssa Ustby, as she boasts a 21.8 percent usage rate. Ustby averages 9.5 boards per game, but Reniya Kelly has been a difference-maker with her 41.6 percent rate on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: Make. A. Foul. Shot. UNC shoots only 66.9 percent from the charity stripe, making it the biggest weakness for a team that is otherwise poised to make a deep run. Ustby (53.1 percent) and Indya Nivar (57.6 percent) struggle for the line and have the highest usage rate.
Outlook: UNC’s six losses have come by an average of 9.2 points. In those games, UNC shot 71.2 percent on free throws. Close games are expected in the tournament, and if it comes down to free throws, UNC is in trouble. Make the free throws, go to the Elite Eight. Miss the free throws, leave early.
Strengths: UNC’s lineup is so balanced and deep. Four Tar Heels players average double-figures in scoring, led by Maria Gakdeng (11.3 ppg). The offense runs through fifth-year senior Alyssa Ustby, as she boasts a 21.8 percent usage rate. Ustby averages 9.5 boards per game, but Reniya Kelly has been a difference-maker with her 41.6 percent rate on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: Make. A. Foul. Shot. UNC shoots only 66.9 percent from the charity stripe, making it the biggest weakness for a team that is otherwise poised to make a deep run. Ustby (53.1 percent) and Indya Nivar (57.6 percent) struggle for the line and have the highest usage rate.
Outlook: UNC’s six losses have come by an average of 9.2 points. In those games, UNC shot 71.2 percent on free throws. Close games are expected in the tournament, and if it comes down to free throws, UNC is in trouble. Make the free throws, go to the Elite Eight. Miss the free throws, leave early.
Strengths: UNC’s lineup is so balanced and deep. Four Tar Heels players average double-figures in scoring, led by Maria Gakdeng (11.3 ppg). The offense runs through fifth-year senior Alyssa Ustby, as she boasts a 21.8 percent usage rate. Ustby averages 9.5 boards per game, but Reniya Kelly has been a difference-maker with her 41.6 percent rate on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: Make. A. Foul. Shot. UNC shoots only 66.9 percent from the charity stripe, making it the biggest weakness for a team that is otherwise poised to make a deep run. Ustby (53.1 percent) and Indya Nivar (57.6 percent) struggle for the line and have the highest usage rate.
Outlook: UNC’s six losses have come by an average of 9.2 points. In those games, UNC shot 71.2 percent on free throws. Close games are expected in the tournament, and if it comes down to free throws, UNC is in trouble. Make the free throws, go to the Elite Eight. Miss the free throws, leave early.
What to know: UNC’s 79.4 winning percentage is the highest for the program since the 2012-2013 season (80.6 percent).
Player to watch: Reniya Kelly
Notre Dame
Strengths: This is no knock on UConn’s stars. But Notre Dame’s big three is on another level. Olivia Miles has grown so much this year, making her a potential No. 2 pick in the WNBA Draft. Sonia Citron’s stock has risen, too, as an elite 3-and-D player. And of course, Hannah Hidalgo is a walking bucket. If you sag off of Hidalgo, Miles and Citron can beat you or work it inside to Liatu King or Maddy Westbeld.
Weaknesses: Will the stars be enough for Notre Dame, or can one of King or Westbeld step up when needed? No team shoots better from 3-point range than the Irish, and the only real flaw the team has is that it commits a lot of turnovers (No. 170 in the nation). They’ve suffered four losses this year – prior to their loss to Duke in the ACC tournament – in two sets of consecutives losses in November and then in February. They shot well below the 40.5 percent clip that they’ve averaged for the season from 3-point range in all four losses.
Outlook: Several teams are capable of winning the title this year, and the Irish are among them. If the big three are rolling, it’s going to be hard to stop them. Citron is a difference-maker for the Irish, and Miles does a fantastic job finding her teammates for buckets. The trio will get theirs, but Notre Dame’s fate could come down to the play of King and Westbeld. If the Irish aren’t in the Elite Eight, I’d be shocked. If they aren’t in Tampa, I’d be surprised.
Strengths: This is no knock on UConn’s stars. But Notre Dame’s big three is on another level. Olivia Miles has grown so much this year, making her a potential No. 2 pick in the WNBA Draft. Sonia Citron’s stock has risen, too, as an elite 3-and-D player. And of course, Hannah Hidalgo is a walking bucket. If you sag off of Hidalgo, Miles and Citron can beat you or work it inside to Liatu King or Maddy Westbeld.
Weaknesses: Will the stars be enough for Notre Dame, or can one of King or Westbeld step up when needed? No team shoots better from 3-point range than the Irish, and the only real flaw the team has is that it commits a lot of turnovers (No. 170 in the nation). They’ve suffered four losses this year – prior to their loss to Duke in the ACC tournament – in two sets of consecutives losses in November and then in February. They shot well below the 40.5 percent clip that they’ve averaged for the season from 3-point range in all four losses.
Outlook: Several teams are capable of winning the title this year, and the Irish are among them. If the big three are rolling, it’s going to be hard to stop them. Citron is a difference-maker for the Irish, and Miles does a fantastic job finding her teammates for buckets. The trio will get theirs, but Notre Dame’s fate could come down to the play of King and Westbeld. If the Irish aren’t in the Elite Eight, I’d be shocked. If they aren’t in Tampa, I’d be surprised.
Strengths: This is no knock on UConn’s stars. But Notre Dame’s big three is on another level. Olivia Miles has grown so much this year, making her a potential No. 2 pick in the WNBA Draft. Sonia Citron’s stock has risen, too, as an elite 3-and-D player. And of course, Hannah Hidalgo is a walking bucket. If you sag off of Hidalgo, Miles and Citron can beat you or work it inside to Liatu King or Maddy Westbeld.
Weaknesses: Will the stars be enough for Notre Dame, or can one of King or Westbeld step up when needed? No team shoots better from 3-point range than the Irish, and the only real flaw the team has is that it commits a lot of turnovers (No. 170 in the nation). They’ve suffered four losses this year – prior to their loss to Duke in the ACC tournament – in two sets of consecutives losses in November and then in February. They shot well below the 40.5 percent clip that they’ve averaged for the season from 3-point range in all four losses.
Outlook: Several teams are capable of winning the title this year, and the Irish are among them. If the big three are rolling, it’s going to be hard to stop them. Citron is a difference-maker for the Irish, and Miles does a fantastic job finding her teammates for buckets. The trio will get theirs, but Notre Dame’s fate could come down to the play of King and Westbeld. If the Irish aren’t in the Elite Eight, I’d be shocked. If they aren’t in Tampa, I’d be surprised.
What to know: The Fighting Irish have the best one through three in college basketball. Will it be enough?
Coach: Niele Ivey, three Sweet 16s
Player to watch: Sonia Citron
Oklahoma
Strengths: Oklahoma found its footing late in the season, rattling off seven straight conference wins — including beating Alabama to end the regular season. Oregon State transfer Raegan Beers adjusted to the SEC well, posting her highest scoring and field goal percentage of her collegiate career.
Weaknesses: Though its offense is elite, Oklahoma ranks in the 25th percentile in points allowed. Between that and its high turnovers (18.9 per game), Oklahoma needs to clean up on both ends of the court. Six of its seven losses were to teams ranked inside the top 26. In those games, the Sooners turned over the ball an average of 20.6 times.
Outlook: If Oklahoma can set the pace, it’ll find success heading into the second weekend of play. But with the quick pace comes the turnovers and allowing transition buckets. If Oklahoma continues shooting efficiently (52.4 percent effective field goal rate), it can score with any team in the country.
Strengths: Oklahoma found its footing late in the season, rattling off seven straight conference wins — including beating Alabama to end the regular season. Oregon State transfer Raegan Beers adjusted to the SEC well, posting her highest scoring and field goal percentage of her collegiate career.
Weaknesses: Though its offense is elite, Oklahoma ranks in the 25th percentile in points allowed. Between that and its high turnovers (18.9 per game), Oklahoma needs to clean up on both ends of the court. Six of its seven losses were to teams ranked inside the top 26. In those games, the Sooners turned over the ball an average of 20.6 times.
Outlook: If Oklahoma can set the pace, it’ll find success heading into the second weekend of play. But with the quick pace comes the turnovers and allowing transition buckets. If Oklahoma continues shooting efficiently (52.4 percent effective field goal rate), it can score with any team in the country.
Strengths: Oklahoma found its footing late in the season, rattling off seven straight conference wins — including beating Alabama to end the regular season. Oregon State transfer Raegan Beers adjusted to the SEC well, posting her highest scoring and field goal percentage of her collegiate career.
Weaknesses: Though its offense is elite, Oklahoma ranks in the 25th percentile in points allowed. Between that and its high turnovers (18.9 per game), Oklahoma needs to clean up on both ends of the court. Six of its seven losses were to teams ranked inside the top 26. In those games, the Sooners turned over the ball an average of 20.6 times.
Outlook: If Oklahoma can set the pace, it’ll find success heading into the second weekend of play. But with the quick pace comes the turnovers and allowing transition buckets. If Oklahoma continues shooting efficiently (52.4 percent effective field goal rate), it can score with any team in the country.
What to know: Oklahoma plays an up-and-down style of basketball, running at the fastest pace in the nation (81).
Coach: Jennie Baranczyk, three Round of 32 appearances
Player to watch: Raegan Beers
Baylor
Strengths: Depth is so key in the NCAA Tournament, and it was tested down the stretch for Baylor as Darianna Littlepage-Buggs suffered a knee injury and junior Bella Fontleroy was injured during a mid-game collision. Baylor’s unselfish play results in 18.5 assists per game and ranking No. 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.36).
Weaknesses: It’s true about many teams at this level, but free throws are an issue for the Bears. They lost to TCU in the regular season finale by three points, after going 10 of 16 from the free-throw line. It’s a simple element of the game that can cause so many issues. What’s more, on the season, Baylor shot 34.7 percent from 3-point range, but in its seven losses, it shot 25.2 percent from downtown.
Outlook: Depth is key to overcoming injuries. But if you’re burning through that depth, it can quickly go away. Littlepage-Buggs is key for this team, as she’s one of 26 Division I players averaging a double-double this season. If healthy, Baylor is a sneaky sleeper pick to make it through the second weekend of play.
Strengths: Depth is so key in the NCAA Tournament, and it was tested down the stretch for Baylor as Darianna Littlepage-Buggs suffered a knee injury and junior Bella Fontleroy was injured during a mid-game collision. Baylor’s unselfish play results in 18.5 assists per game and ranking No. 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.36).
Weaknesses: It’s true about many teams at this level, but free throws are an issue for the Bears. They lost to TCU in the regular season finale by three points, after going 10 of 16 from the free-throw line. It’s a simple element of the game that can cause so many issues. What’s more, on the season, Baylor shot 34.7 percent from 3-point range, but in its seven losses, it shot 25.2 percent from downtown.
Outlook: Depth is key to overcoming injuries. But if you’re burning through that depth, it can quickly go away. Littlepage-Buggs is key for this team, as she’s one of 26 Division I players averaging a double-double this season. If healthy, Baylor is a sneaky sleeper pick to make it through the second weekend of play.
Strengths: Depth is so key in the NCAA Tournament, and it was tested down the stretch for Baylor as Darianna Littlepage-Buggs suffered a knee injury and junior Bella Fontleroy was injured during a mid-game collision. Baylor’s unselfish play results in 18.5 assists per game and ranking No. 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.36).
Weaknesses: It’s true about many teams at this level, but free throws are an issue for the Bears. They lost to TCU in the regular season finale by three points, after going 10 of 16 from the free-throw line. It’s a simple element of the game that can cause so many issues. What’s more, on the season, Baylor shot 34.7 percent from 3-point range, but in its seven losses, it shot 25.2 percent from downtown.
Outlook: Depth is key to overcoming injuries. But if you’re burning through that depth, it can quickly go away. Littlepage-Buggs is key for this team, as she’s one of 26 Division I players averaging a double-double this season. If healthy, Baylor is a sneaky sleeper pick to make it through the second weekend of play.
What to know:A pick-your-poison roster, Baylor has as much depth as any team in the country.
Coach: Nicki Collen, one Sweet 16
Player to watch: Aaronette Vonleh
Maryland
Strengths: Upperclassmen lead the way for Maryland, including Rutgers transfer Kaylene Smikle. Smikle averages a team-high 17.7 points per game, making her a solid one-two punch with Shyanne Sellers. Maryland does most of its damage inside, making the 25th-most 2-pointers nationally, but its main advantage is not only getting to the line (eighth nationally) but executing at the line (sixth in most made free throws).
Weaknesses: Creating turnovers and hitting 3s. Maryland is middle of the road in creating turnovers, averaging just 6.8 steals per game. On offense, it is in the 31st percentile in 3s attempted (517)
Outlook: Besides Big Ten wins over No. 21 Iowa and No. 19 Ohio State, Maryland’s only other big win was against No. 11 Duke in November by five points. The Terrapins have a nice makeup and their advantage at the line can help in close games, but how will they show up against high-level teams in March? A first-weekend exit wouldn’t be surprising.
Strengths: Upperclassmen lead the way for Maryland, including Rutgers transfer Kaylene Smikle. Smikle averages a team-high 17.7 points per game, making her a solid one-two punch with Shyanne Sellers. Maryland does most of its damage inside, making the 25th-most 2-pointers nationally, but its main advantage is not only getting to the line (eighth nationally) but executing at the line (sixth in most made free throws).
Weaknesses: Creating turnovers and hitting 3s. Maryland is middle of the road in creating turnovers, averaging just 6.8 steals per game. On offense, it is in the 31st percentile in 3s attempted (517)
Outlook: Besides Big Ten wins over No. 21 Iowa and No. 19 Ohio State, Maryland’s only other big win was against No. 11 Duke in November by five points. The Terrapins have a nice makeup and their advantage at the line can help in close games, but how will they show up against high-level teams in March? A first-weekend exit wouldn’t be surprising.
Strengths: Upperclassmen lead the way for Maryland, including Rutgers transfer Kaylene Smikle. Smikle averages a team-high 17.7 points per game, making her a solid one-two punch with Shyanne Sellers. Maryland does most of its damage inside, making the 25th-most 2-pointers nationally, but its main advantage is not only getting to the line (eighth nationally) but executing at the line (sixth in most made free throws).
Weaknesses: Creating turnovers and hitting 3s. Maryland is middle of the road in creating turnovers, averaging just 6.8 steals per game. On offense, it is in the 31st percentile in 3s attempted (517)
Outlook: Besides Big Ten wins over No. 21 Iowa and No. 19 Ohio State, Maryland’s only other big win was against No. 11 Duke in November by five points. The Terrapins have a nice makeup and their advantage at the line can help in close games, but how will they show up against high-level teams in March? A first-weekend exit wouldn’t be surprising.
What to know: Started the season 14-0 before conference play started, where it only has three top 25 wins.
Coach: Brenda Frese, four Sweet 16s, four Elite Eights, two Final Fours, one championship
Player to watch: Kaylene Smikle
Ohio State
Strengths: Defense. The Buckeyes hold opponents below 63.7 points per game on average and force 12.3 steals and 4.1 blocks per game. In any game, Cotie McMahon, Chance Gray, Jaloni Cambridge or Ajae Petty can go off. Offensively, they do it, but defensively, Ohio State has seven players who average at least 1.1 steals per game. If Ohio State goes far, it will be behind its defense.
Weaknesses: The downside to Ohio State is its struggles at the free-throw line, shooting 68.7 percent. And that reared its head in three of Ohio State’s losses this year. The Buckeyes lost five games in the regular season – to UCLA, USC, Penn State, Indiana and Maryland – and in three of those losses, they shot less than 63 percent on free throws. That’s not going to get it done.
Outlook: Ohio State lacks quality wins. It beat No. 20 Iowa, No. 24 Maryland and No. 25 Michigan State in the regular season and Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament, but those are the only Top 25 wins. If it continues to play at a high defensive level with its quick pace (94th percentile), Ohio State can put those concerns to bed with a run to the Elite Eight.
Strengths: Defense. The Buckeyes hold opponents below 63.7 points per game on average and force 12.3 steals and 4.1 blocks per game. In any game, Cotie McMahon, Chance Gray, Jaloni Cambridge or Ajae Petty can go off. Offensively, they do it, but defensively, Ohio State has seven players who average at least 1.1 steals per game. If Ohio State goes far, it will be behind its defense.
Weaknesses: The downside to Ohio State is its struggles at the free-throw line, shooting 68.7 percent. And that reared its head in three of Ohio State’s losses this year. The Buckeyes lost five games in the regular season – to UCLA, USC, Penn State, Indiana and Maryland – and in three of those losses, they shot less than 63 percent on free throws. That’s not going to get it done.
Outlook: Ohio State lacks quality wins. It beat No. 20 Iowa, No. 24 Maryland and No. 25 Michigan State in the regular season and Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament, but those are the only Top 25 wins. If it continues to play at a high defensive level with its quick pace (94th percentile), Ohio State can put those concerns to bed with a run to the Elite Eight.
Strengths: Defense. The Buckeyes hold opponents below 63.7 points per game on average and force 12.3 steals and 4.1 blocks per game. In any game, Cotie McMahon, Chance Gray, Jaloni Cambridge or Ajae Petty can go off. Offensively, they do it, but defensively, Ohio State has seven players who average at least 1.1 steals per game. If Ohio State goes far, it will be behind its defense.
Weaknesses: The downside to Ohio State is its struggles at the free-throw line, shooting 68.7 percent. And that reared its head in three of Ohio State’s losses this year. The Buckeyes lost five games in the regular season – to UCLA, USC, Penn State, Indiana and Maryland – and in three of those losses, they shot less than 63 percent on free throws. That’s not going to get it done.
Outlook: Ohio State lacks quality wins. It beat No. 20 Iowa, No. 24 Maryland and No. 25 Michigan State in the regular season and Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament, but those are the only Top 25 wins. If it continues to play at a high defensive level with its quick pace (94th percentile), Ohio State can put those concerns to bed with a run to the Elite Eight.
What to know: Stingy, in-your-face defense that has its lowest opponents’ average points (63.7) since 2012-2013 (58.1).
Coach: Kevin McGuff, three Sweet 16s, two Elite Eights
Player to watch: Ajae Petty
Kentucky
Strengths: When Georgia Amoore followed Kenny Brooks, her former coach at Virginia Tech, to Kentucky, we had an idea of how it would go. Kentucky has been down the last few years, but Brooks and Amoore have revitalized it. The Wildcats crash the defensive boards to the tune of 29.5 per game, and they stifle the opposing offense on the interior with seven blocks per game. Amoore averages a team-high 19.1 points per game, but another Virginia Tech transfer, Clara Strack, chips in 15.2, as they are two of four Wildcats averaging in double-figures.
Weaknesses: This team is just good – especially in a tough SEC. It has struggled against quality opponents down the stretch, losing to LSU, Texas, Ole Miss and South Carolina in the regular season before falling to Oklahoma in the SEC tournament. In every regular-season loss besides LSU, Kentucky’s pace was slowed down, so how it can dictate that throughout the tournament will be important. Kentucky’s other glaring issue is interrupting the passing lanes. It ranked No. 349 in steals per game this season.
Outlook: There’s a lot of veteran leadership on this team, led by Amoore, who is a likely first-round WNBA Draft pick. How far the Wildcats go could depend on freshman Amelia Hassett, who is averaging 8.8 points, 8 rebounds and 2.1 STOCKs. A trip to the second weekend is likely, and for Brooks’ first year with the program, that should be considered a success.
Strengths: When Georgia Amoore followed Kenny Brooks, her former coach at Virginia Tech, to Kentucky, we had an idea of how it would go. Kentucky has been down the last few years, but Brooks and Amoore have revitalized it. The Wildcats crash the defensive boards to the tune of 29.5 per game, and they stifle the opposing offense on the interior with seven blocks per game. Amoore averages a team-high 19.1 points per game, but another Virginia Tech transfer, Clara Strack, chips in 15.2, as they are two of four Wildcats averaging in double-figures.
Weaknesses: This team is just good – especially in a tough SEC. It has struggled against quality opponents down the stretch, losing to LSU, Texas, Ole Miss and South Carolina in the regular season before falling to Oklahoma in the SEC tournament. In every regular-season loss besides LSU, Kentucky’s pace was slowed down, so how it can dictate that throughout the tournament will be important. Kentucky’s other glaring issue is interrupting the passing lanes. It ranked No. 349 in steals per game this season.
Outlook: There’s a lot of veteran leadership on this team, led by Amoore, who is a likely first-round WNBA Draft pick. How far the Wildcats go could depend on freshman Amelia Hassett, who is averaging 8.8 points, 8 rebounds and 2.1 STOCKs. A trip to the second weekend is likely, and for Brooks’ first year with the program, that should be considered a success.
Strengths: When Georgia Amoore followed Kenny Brooks, her former coach at Virginia Tech, to Kentucky, we had an idea of how it would go. Kentucky has been down the last few years, but Brooks and Amoore have revitalized it. The Wildcats crash the defensive boards to the tune of 29.5 per game, and they stifle the opposing offense on the interior with seven blocks per game. Amoore averages a team-high 19.1 points per game, but another Virginia Tech transfer, Clara Strack, chips in 15.2, as they are two of four Wildcats averaging in double-figures.
Weaknesses: This team is just good – especially in a tough SEC. It has struggled against quality opponents down the stretch, losing to LSU, Texas, Ole Miss and South Carolina in the regular season before falling to Oklahoma in the SEC tournament. In every regular-season loss besides LSU, Kentucky’s pace was slowed down, so how it can dictate that throughout the tournament will be important. Kentucky’s other glaring issue is interrupting the passing lanes. It ranked No. 349 in steals per game this season.
Outlook: There’s a lot of veteran leadership on this team, led by Amoore, who is a likely first-round WNBA Draft pick. How far the Wildcats go could depend on freshman Amelia Hassett, who is averaging 8.8 points, 8 rebounds and 2.1 STOCKs. A trip to the second weekend is likely, and for Brooks’ first year with the program, that should be considered a success.
What to know: The Wildcats earned their first 20-win season since the 2019-2020 season behind senior transfer Georgia Amoore’s play.
Coach: Kenny Brooks, one Final Four
Player to watch: Georgia Amoore
Ole Miss
Strengths: Ole Miss saw its SEC schedule and said “let’s run toward the grind, not away from it.” It played USC, UConn and NC State, in addition to a tough conference schedule. In those extra games, Ole Miss showed that it can hang around, losing by an average of 7.3 points to elite programs. It’s a well-balanced team, featuring four players averaging between 10.8 and 11.9 points per game.
Weaknesses: Ole Miss struggles on the defensive boards. It ranked No. 291 in the country in defensive rebounds per game, as it averages only 7.3 more defensive rebounds per contest than offensive rebounds. That can’t happen if you’re expecting to make a run.
Outlook: Freshman Sira Thienou has been fantastic for the Rebels as one of 40 players to average at least 2.5 steals per game. Ole Miss can hang with tough teams, but can it win against them? LSU and Vanderbilt (twice) were the only Top 25 teams that Ole Miss beat — not just competed with.
Strengths: Ole Miss saw its SEC schedule and said “let’s run toward the grind, not away from it.” It played USC, UConn and NC State, in addition to a tough conference schedule. In those extra games, Ole Miss showed that it can hang around, losing by an average of 7.3 points to elite programs. It’s a well-balanced team, featuring four players averaging between 10.8 and 11.9 points per game.
Weaknesses: Ole Miss struggles on the defensive boards. It ranked No. 291 in the country in defensive rebounds per game, as it averages only 7.3 more defensive rebounds per contest than offensive rebounds. That can’t happen if you’re expecting to make a run.
Outlook: Freshman Sira Thienou has been fantastic for the Rebels as one of 40 players to average at least 2.5 steals per game. Ole Miss can hang with tough teams, but can it win against them? LSU and Vanderbilt (twice) were the only Top 25 teams that Ole Miss beat — not just competed with.
Strengths: Ole Miss saw its SEC schedule and said “let’s run toward the grind, not away from it.” It played USC, UConn and NC State, in addition to a tough conference schedule. In those extra games, Ole Miss showed that it can hang around, losing by an average of 7.3 points to elite programs. It’s a well-balanced team, featuring four players averaging between 10.8 and 11.9 points per game.
Weaknesses: Ole Miss struggles on the defensive boards. It ranked No. 291 in the country in defensive rebounds per game, as it averages only 7.3 more defensive rebounds per contest than offensive rebounds. That can’t happen if you’re expecting to make a run.
Outlook: Freshman Sira Thienou has been fantastic for the Rebels as one of 40 players to average at least 2.5 steals per game. Ole Miss can hang with tough teams, but can it win against them? LSU and Vanderbilt (twice) were the only Top 25 teams that Ole Miss beat — not just competed with.
What to know: A team that didn’t run away from the grind. Nine losses were against top 18 teams.
Coach: Yolett McPhee-McCuin, one Sweet 16
Player to watch: Sira Thienou
Alabama
Strengths: Sarah Ashlee Barker, a senior, missed most of January with an injury. In her absence, Alabama lost to Texas and South Carolina — no shame there. Then, ‘Bama had back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky as Barker returned and was getting back to full strength. Since then, the Crimson Tide’s only losses were to Tennessee and Oklahoma before falling to Florida in the SEC tournament. Their top six players all log more than 20 minutes per game and play a fun, efficient style of basketball, thriving on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: As great as Alabama is from behind the arc (38.6 percent), we’ve seen what happens when it has an off night. In five of Alabama’s losses, it shot 31.3 percent, 29.4 percent, 18.2 percent, 17.4 percent and 23.5 percent. If the 3 isn’t falling, Alabama is in trouble.
Outlook: Alabama is a sneaky team to make a deep run. The Crimson Tide’s lineup has cohesion, and Zaay Green – a sixth-year transfer from Arkansas-Pine Bluff – is thriving in their system. The tournament is about momentum, and Alabama is getting hot at the right time. If its 3s are falling, look for ’Bama to be a tough out.
Strengths: Sarah Ashlee Barker, a senior, missed most of January with an injury. In her absence, Alabama lost to Texas and South Carolina — no shame there. Then, ‘Bama had back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky as Barker returned and was getting back to full strength. Since then, the Crimson Tide’s only losses were to Tennessee and Oklahoma before falling to Florida in the SEC tournament. Their top six players all log more than 20 minutes per game and play a fun, efficient style of basketball, thriving on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: As great as Alabama is from behind the arc (38.6 percent), we’ve seen what happens when it has an off night. In five of Alabama’s losses, it shot 31.3 percent, 29.4 percent, 18.2 percent, 17.4 percent and 23.5 percent. If the 3 isn’t falling, Alabama is in trouble.
Outlook: Alabama is a sneaky team to make a deep run. The Crimson Tide’s lineup has cohesion, and Zaay Green – a sixth-year transfer from Arkansas-Pine Bluff – is thriving in their system. The tournament is about momentum, and Alabama is getting hot at the right time. If its 3s are falling, look for ’Bama to be a tough out.
Strengths: Sarah Ashlee Barker, a senior, missed most of January with an injury. In her absence, Alabama lost to Texas and South Carolina — no shame there. Then, ‘Bama had back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky as Barker returned and was getting back to full strength. Since then, the Crimson Tide’s only losses were to Tennessee and Oklahoma before falling to Florida in the SEC tournament. Their top six players all log more than 20 minutes per game and play a fun, efficient style of basketball, thriving on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: As great as Alabama is from behind the arc (38.6 percent), we’ve seen what happens when it has an off night. In five of Alabama’s losses, it shot 31.3 percent, 29.4 percent, 18.2 percent, 17.4 percent and 23.5 percent. If the 3 isn’t falling, Alabama is in trouble.
Outlook: Alabama is a sneaky team to make a deep run. The Crimson Tide’s lineup has cohesion, and Zaay Green – a sixth-year transfer from Arkansas-Pine Bluff – is thriving in their system. The tournament is about momentum, and Alabama is getting hot at the right time. If its 3s are falling, look for ’Bama to be a tough out.
What to know: Alabama is elite on 3-pointers, tying its highest mark (38.6 percent) since the 2001-2002 season.
Coach: Kristy Curry, two Sweet 16s, one Elite Eight, one runner-up
Player to watch: Sarah Ashlee Barker
Tennessee
Strengths: The Lady Vols push, push, push on offense, as it plays a quick style. They rank second nationally in scoring, thanks in part to Arkansas transfer Samara Spencer and South Carolina transfer Talaysia Cooper. Opponents facing Tennessee must be ready for a barrage of 3-pointers. The Lady Vols rank third nationally in made 3-pointers and finished second in 3-point attempts.
Weaknesses: Their offense is stellar, and it’s a good thing, because their defense struggles, as we saw in their SEC tournament loss to Vanderbilt. They rank in the 19th percentile in points allowed per game. So when the 3 Tennessee relies on aren’t falling, it can make for a long day at the office if the Lady Vols aren’t getting defensive stops. Adding to the defensive issues are the number of fouls by Tennessee. Tournament games can be decided at the free-throw line. Tennessee averaged north of 20 fouls per game, which just isn’t a recipe for success in March.
Outlook: This Tennessee team is fun. The fast-paced, high-scoring nature of it is made for TV and the tournament. It’ll all come down to how it plays defensively. Tennessee, despite the number of 3-pointers it hoists, ranks in the 97th percentile in offensive rebound rate, so if it can keep possessions alive for second-chance points and limit transition buckets, Tennessee’s offense can overcome its defense like it has all season.
Strengths: The Lady Vols push, push, push on offense, as it plays a quick style. They rank second nationally in scoring, thanks in part to Arkansas transfer Samara Spencer and South Carolina transfer Talaysia Cooper. Opponents facing Tennessee must be ready for a barrage of 3-pointers. The Lady Vols rank third nationally in made 3-pointers and finished second in 3-point attempts.
Weaknesses: Their offense is stellar, and it’s a good thing, because their defense struggles, as we saw in their SEC tournament loss to Vanderbilt. They rank in the 19th percentile in points allowed per game. So when the 3 Tennessee relies on aren’t falling, it can make for a long day at the office if the Lady Vols aren’t getting defensive stops. Adding to the defensive issues are the number of fouls by Tennessee. Tournament games can be decided at the free-throw line. Tennessee averaged north of 20 fouls per game, which just isn’t a recipe for success in March.
Outlook: This Tennessee team is fun. The fast-paced, high-scoring nature of it is made for TV and the tournament. It’ll all come down to how it plays defensively. Tennessee, despite the number of 3-pointers it hoists, ranks in the 97th percentile in offensive rebound rate, so if it can keep possessions alive for second-chance points and limit transition buckets, Tennessee’s offense can overcome its defense like it has all season.
Strengths: The Lady Vols push, push, push on offense, as it plays a quick style. They rank second nationally in scoring, thanks in part to Arkansas transfer Samara Spencer and South Carolina transfer Talaysia Cooper. Opponents facing Tennessee must be ready for a barrage of 3-pointers. The Lady Vols rank third nationally in made 3-pointers and finished second in 3-point attempts.
Weaknesses: Their offense is stellar, and it’s a good thing, because their defense struggles, as we saw in their SEC tournament loss to Vanderbilt. They rank in the 19th percentile in points allowed per game. So when the 3 Tennessee relies on aren’t falling, it can make for a long day at the office if the Lady Vols aren’t getting defensive stops. Adding to the defensive issues are the number of fouls by Tennessee. Tournament games can be decided at the free-throw line. Tennessee averaged north of 20 fouls per game, which just isn’t a recipe for success in March.
Outlook: This Tennessee team is fun. The fast-paced, high-scoring nature of it is made for TV and the tournament. It’ll all come down to how it plays defensively. Tennessee, despite the number of 3-pointers it hoists, ranks in the 97th percentile in offensive rebound rate, so if it can keep possessions alive for second-chance points and limit transition buckets, Tennessee’s offense can overcome its defense like it has all season.
What to know: Five players average double-digits in scoring for the Lady Vols, who rank second in pace.
Coach: Kim Caldwell, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Samara Spencer
Kansas State
Strengths: Kansas State is battle-tested. It is led by upperclassmen, and it may need to turn to players like Serena Sundell, Jaelyn Glenn and Temira Poindexter even more in the tournament. All-American Ayoka Lee has been out since late January with a fractured foot, returning to the lineup in late February for a few minutes before experiencing soreness in her other foot. Lee underwent a procedure to be ready for the NCAA Tournament, but will she be at 100 percent? Will she play at all? If not, Kansas State will need to turn to other veterans.
Weaknesses: It’s no coincidence that Kansas State’s record down the stretch suffered without Lee healthy. She’s the Wildcats’ heart and soul. Without her, they shoot less than 40 percent from the field. They absolutely need Lee to be healthy.
Outlook: It all depends on Lee. Jeff Mittie is looking for his first Sweet 16 appearance, and Kansas State has shown that it can beat strong opponents (Utah, TCU and Creighton), but it 100 percent needs Lee at, well, 100 percent to advance to the second weekend of play.
Strengths: Kansas State is battle-tested. It is led by upperclassmen, and it may need to turn to players like Serena Sundell, Jaelyn Glenn and Temira Poindexter even more in the tournament. All-American Ayoka Lee has been out since late January with a fractured foot, returning to the lineup in late February for a few minutes before experiencing soreness in her other foot. Lee underwent a procedure to be ready for the NCAA Tournament, but will she be at 100 percent? Will she play at all? If not, Kansas State will need to turn to other veterans.
Weaknesses: It’s no coincidence that Kansas State’s record down the stretch suffered without Lee healthy. She’s the Wildcats’ heart and soul. Without her, they shoot less than 40 percent from the field. They absolutely need Lee to be healthy.
Outlook: It all depends on Lee. Jeff Mittie is looking for his first Sweet 16 appearance, and Kansas State has shown that it can beat strong opponents (Utah, TCU and Creighton), but it 100 percent needs Lee at, well, 100 percent to advance to the second weekend of play.
Strengths: Kansas State is battle-tested. It is led by upperclassmen, and it may need to turn to players like Serena Sundell, Jaelyn Glenn and Temira Poindexter even more in the tournament. All-American Ayoka Lee has been out since late January with a fractured foot, returning to the lineup in late February for a few minutes before experiencing soreness in her other foot. Lee underwent a procedure to be ready for the NCAA Tournament, but will she be at 100 percent? Will she play at all? If not, Kansas State will need to turn to other veterans.
Weaknesses: It’s no coincidence that Kansas State’s record down the stretch suffered without Lee healthy. She’s the Wildcats’ heart and soul. Without her, they shoot less than 40 percent from the field. They absolutely need Lee to be healthy.
Outlook: It all depends on Lee. Jeff Mittie is looking for his first Sweet 16 appearance, and Kansas State has shown that it can beat strong opponents (Utah, TCU and Creighton), but it 100 percent needs Lee at, well, 100 percent to advance to the second weekend of play.
What to know: Kansas State started off the season 19-1 before losing five of its last 11 conference games.
Coach: Jeff Mittie, nine Round of 32 appearances
Player to watch: Ayoka Lee
Florida State
Strengths: When you have the leading scorer in college on your team, it’s hard not to feel like you have a shot in every game. Ta’Niya Latson has taken a third-year leap for the Seminoles, averaging 24.9 points per game after scoring 21.4 last year. She overcame a late-season injury scare, where she was forced to miss multiple games, and seems set for tournament play. She’s a complete player, with her only drawback being 2.9 turnovers per game. Pair that with shot-blocking menace Makayla Timpson, and Florida State has a fantastic duo.
Weaknesses: Florida State can — and will — score in bunches, but its defense is a big issue. It allows 71.2 points per game, ranking in the 15th percentile. In single-digit outcomes during the regular season — wins and losses — the Seminoles have allowed an average of 79.5 points. They can win their fair share of close games, but it’s going to come down to whether the defense can make consistent stops.
Outlook: Latson may lead Florida State, but it’s not a situation where teams are able to isolate her and force someone else to beat them. Makayla Timpson, O’Mariah Gordon and Sydney Bowls average double-digit points. Florida State doesn’t get the national love it deserves, and a Sweet 16 run seems likely to change that.
Strengths: When you have the leading scorer in college on your team, it’s hard not to feel like you have a shot in every game. Ta’Niya Latson has taken a third-year leap for the Seminoles, averaging 24.9 points per game after scoring 21.4 last year. She overcame a late-season injury scare, where she was forced to miss multiple games, and seems set for tournament play. She’s a complete player, with her only drawback being 2.9 turnovers per game. Pair that with shot-blocking menace Makayla Timpson, and Florida State has a fantastic duo.
Weaknesses: Florida State can — and will — score in bunches, but its defense is a big issue. It allows 71.2 points per game, ranking in the 15th percentile. In single-digit outcomes during the regular season — wins and losses — the Seminoles have allowed an average of 79.5 points. They can win their fair share of close games, but it’s going to come down to whether the defense can make consistent stops.
Outlook: Latson may lead Florida State, but it’s not a situation where teams are able to isolate her and force someone else to beat them. Makayla Timpson, O’Mariah Gordon and Sydney Bowls average double-digit points. Florida State doesn’t get the national love it deserves, and a Sweet 16 run seems likely to change that.
Strengths: When you have the leading scorer in college on your team, it’s hard not to feel like you have a shot in every game. Ta’Niya Latson has taken a third-year leap for the Seminoles, averaging 24.9 points per game after scoring 21.4 last year. She overcame a late-season injury scare, where she was forced to miss multiple games, and seems set for tournament play. She’s a complete player, with her only drawback being 2.9 turnovers per game. Pair that with shot-blocking menace Makayla Timpson, and Florida State has a fantastic duo.
Weaknesses: Florida State can — and will — score in bunches, but its defense is a big issue. It allows 71.2 points per game, ranking in the 15th percentile. In single-digit outcomes during the regular season — wins and losses — the Seminoles have allowed an average of 79.5 points. They can win their fair share of close games, but it’s going to come down to whether the defense can make consistent stops.
Outlook: Latson may lead Florida State, but it’s not a situation where teams are able to isolate her and force someone else to beat them. Makayla Timpson, O’Mariah Gordon and Sydney Bowls average double-digit points. Florida State doesn’t get the national love it deserves, and a Sweet 16 run seems likely to change that.
What to know: Offensive juggernaut averaging one of the fastest paces in the nation (78.4 possessions per 40 minutes).
Coach: Brooke Wyckoff, three first-round appearances
Player to watch: Ta’Niya Latson
West Virginia
Strengths: West Virginia’s defense is super active filling the passing lanes. Mark Kellogg’s team is averaging just shy of 14 steals per game, which is a big reason opponents average just over 55 points per game.
Weaknesses: The Mountaineers struggle to secure defensive rebounds at a positive rate, ranking in the 12th percentile. They’re filling the gaps that allows the defense to thrive, averaging just two blocks per game.
Outlook: Seniors JJ Quinerly and Kyah Watson are big for West Virginia defensively, each averaging more than three steals per game. Quinerly makes her presence known on both ends, though, averaging 20.6 points per game. WVU hung around with Texas in the beginning of the year, but in its last three regular-season losses were by a combined 46 points to Arizona, Baylor and TCU. WVU will go as far as its defense takes it, but its offense has to help out a tad.
Strengths: West Virginia’s defense is super active filling the passing lanes. Mark Kellogg’s team is averaging just shy of 14 steals per game, which is a big reason opponents average just over 55 points per game.
Weaknesses: The Mountaineers struggle to secure defensive rebounds at a positive rate, ranking in the 12th percentile. They’re filling the gaps that allows the defense to thrive, averaging just two blocks per game.
Outlook: Seniors JJ Quinerly and Kyah Watson are big for West Virginia defensively, each averaging more than three steals per game. Quinerly makes her presence known on both ends, though, averaging 20.6 points per game. WVU hung around with Texas in the beginning of the year, but in its last three regular-season losses were by a combined 46 points to Arizona, Baylor and TCU. WVU will go as far as its defense takes it, but its offense has to help out a tad.
Strengths: West Virginia’s defense is super active filling the passing lanes. Mark Kellogg’s team is averaging just shy of 14 steals per game, which is a big reason opponents average just over 55 points per game.
Weaknesses: The Mountaineers struggle to secure defensive rebounds at a positive rate, ranking in the 12th percentile. They’re filling the gaps that allows the defense to thrive, averaging just two blocks per game.
Outlook: Seniors JJ Quinerly and Kyah Watson are big for West Virginia defensively, each averaging more than three steals per game. Quinerly makes her presence known on both ends, though, averaging 20.6 points per game. WVU hung around with Texas in the beginning of the year, but in its last three regular-season losses were by a combined 46 points to Arizona, Baylor and TCU. WVU will go as far as its defense takes it, but its offense has to help out a tad.
What to know: An in-your-face defense is top five in steals, defensive rating and points per 100 possessions.
Coach: Mark Kellogg, one Round of 32 appearance
Player to watch: JJ Quinerly
Michigan
Strengths: It’s the year of the freshman in Michigan, as the Wolverines are starting three. And it’s not just sporadic. Michigan has had the same starting five in all but one regular-season game. It plays at a fast pace, averaging 74.7 possessions per 40 minutes, and despite the youth, it ranks No. 39 in effective field goal percentage (51.4 percent).
Weaknesses: Not everything is sunshine and roses in Lansing. Michigan averages 15.5 turnovers per game, and defensively, it’s in the middle of the road. It’s average in points allowed as well as steals per game. The Wolverines are vulnerable down low, as they lack a true rim protector.
Outlook: Freshman Syla Swords is as good as advertised, but can the trio of Swords, Jordan Hobbs and Mila Holloway adjust to the pressure of March Madness? Seniors Olivia Olson and Greta Kampschroeder may have to shoulder more of the load. Its marquee wins were over No. 25 Michigan State and No. 24 Maryland.
Strengths: It’s the year of the freshman in Michigan, as the Wolverines are starting three. And it’s not just sporadic. Michigan has had the same starting five in all but one regular-season game. It plays at a fast pace, averaging 74.7 possessions per 40 minutes, and despite the youth, it ranks No. 39 in effective field goal percentage (51.4 percent).
Weaknesses: Not everything is sunshine and roses in Lansing. Michigan averages 15.5 turnovers per game, and defensively, it’s in the middle of the road. It’s average in points allowed as well as steals per game. The Wolverines are vulnerable down low, as they lack a true rim protector.
Outlook: Freshman Syla Swords is as good as advertised, but can the trio of Swords, Jordan Hobbs and Mila Holloway adjust to the pressure of March Madness? Seniors Olivia Olson and Greta Kampschroeder may have to shoulder more of the load. Its marquee wins were over No. 25 Michigan State and No. 24 Maryland.
Strengths: It’s the year of the freshman in Michigan, as the Wolverines are starting three. And it’s not just sporadic. Michigan has had the same starting five in all but one regular-season game. It plays at a fast pace, averaging 74.7 possessions per 40 minutes, and despite the youth, it ranks No. 39 in effective field goal percentage (51.4 percent).
Weaknesses: Not everything is sunshine and roses in Lansing. Michigan averages 15.5 turnovers per game, and defensively, it’s in the middle of the road. It’s average in points allowed as well as steals per game. The Wolverines are vulnerable down low, as they lack a true rim protector.
Outlook: Freshman Syla Swords is as good as advertised, but can the trio of Swords, Jordan Hobbs and Mila Holloway adjust to the pressure of March Madness? Seniors Olivia Olson and Greta Kampschroeder may have to shoulder more of the load. Its marquee wins were over No. 25 Michigan State and No. 24 Maryland.
What to know: A fast-paced freshman-heavy team leads the way, but can it adjust to the bright tournament lights?
Coach: Kim Barnes Arico, two Sweet 16s, one Elite Eight
Player to watch: Syla Swords
Iowa
Strengths: Caitlin Clark isn’t around anymore, but that doesn’t mean Iowa isn’t able to let it fly. The Hawkeyes shot 34.8 percent on 3-pointers with senior Sydney Affolter leading the way. Affolter shot 47.4 percent from downtown, which ranks fifth nationally. Iowa’s offense took a step back from the Clark days in average scoring and pace, but its defense has improved dramatically.
Weaknesses: Iowa suffered a stretch after New Year’s with consecutive losses to Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Oregon. That’s as many as the program had all of last season. It eventually righted the ship and found its identity, but even with talented Villanova transfer Lucy Olsen, Iowa doesn’t have a go-to player to get a bucket down the stretch.
Outlook: Jan Jensen will get to make the program her own in the following years. But right now, making it to the Sweet 16 would be a success.
Strengths: Caitlin Clark isn’t around anymore, but that doesn’t mean Iowa isn’t able to let it fly. The Hawkeyes shot 34.8 percent on 3-pointers with senior Sydney Affolter leading the way. Affolter shot 47.4 percent from downtown, which ranks fifth nationally. Iowa’s offense took a step back from the Clark days in average scoring and pace, but its defense has improved dramatically.
Weaknesses: Iowa suffered a stretch after New Year’s with consecutive losses to Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Oregon. That’s as many as the program had all of last season. It eventually righted the ship and found its identity, but even with talented Villanova transfer Lucy Olsen, Iowa doesn’t have a go-to player to get a bucket down the stretch.
Outlook: Jan Jensen will get to make the program her own in the following years. But right now, making it to the Sweet 16 would be a success.
Strengths: Caitlin Clark isn’t around anymore, but that doesn’t mean Iowa isn’t able to let it fly. The Hawkeyes shot 34.8 percent on 3-pointers with senior Sydney Affolter leading the way. Affolter shot 47.4 percent from downtown, which ranks fifth nationally. Iowa’s offense took a step back from the Clark days in average scoring and pace, but its defense has improved dramatically.
Weaknesses: Iowa suffered a stretch after New Year’s with consecutive losses to Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Oregon. That’s as many as the program had all of last season. It eventually righted the ship and found its identity, but even with talented Villanova transfer Lucy Olsen, Iowa doesn’t have a go-to player to get a bucket down the stretch.
Outlook: Jan Jensen will get to make the program her own in the following years. But right now, making it to the Sweet 16 would be a success.
What to know:Iowa took until mid-January to find its identity in the post-Caitlin Clark era.
Coach: Jan Jensen
Player to watch: Sydney Affolter
Michigan State
Strengths: The Spartans’ defense has taken a step forward in Robyn Fralick’s second year, ranking in the 89th percentile in defensive rating. A big part of that is due to the play of Oregon transfer Grace VanSlooten, a junior. She and senior Julia Ayrault each average more than a block per game. As a team, Michigan State’s interior defense averages 5.1 blocks per game — good for 15th nationally.
Weaknesses: Michigan State has struggled in close games. In games decided by less than 10 points, Michigan State went 4-5. A lot of that can come down to defensive rebounds — an area where Michigan State struggles. What’s more, in losses, MIchigan State couldn’t hit key shots from deep. Against USC, Michigan State shot just 1 of 13 (7.7 percent) on 3-pointers.
Outlook: Upperclassmen march Michigan State into the tournament. I can compete against the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Vanderbilt and Indiana, but against elite teams like Alabama, UCLA and USC, it has faltered. The Spartans need their defense to lead the way for a run, but a Sweet 16 appearance in Year 2 under Fralick would be a nice progression for the program.
Strengths: The Spartans’ defense has taken a step forward in Robyn Fralick’s second year, ranking in the 89th percentile in defensive rating. A big part of that is due to the play of Oregon transfer Grace VanSlooten, a junior. She and senior Julia Ayrault each average more than a block per game. As a team, Michigan State’s interior defense averages 5.1 blocks per game — good for 15th nationally.
Weaknesses: Michigan State has struggled in close games. In games decided by less than 10 points, Michigan State went 4-5. A lot of that can come down to defensive rebounds — an area where Michigan State struggles. What’s more, in losses, MIchigan State couldn’t hit key shots from deep. Against USC, Michigan State shot just 1 of 13 (7.7 percent) on 3-pointers.
Outlook: Upperclassmen march Michigan State into the tournament. I can compete against the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Vanderbilt and Indiana, but against elite teams like Alabama, UCLA and USC, it has faltered. The Spartans need their defense to lead the way for a run, but a Sweet 16 appearance in Year 2 under Fralick would be a nice progression for the program.
Strengths: The Spartans’ defense has taken a step forward in Robyn Fralick’s second year, ranking in the 89th percentile in defensive rating. A big part of that is due to the play of Oregon transfer Grace VanSlooten, a junior. She and senior Julia Ayrault each average more than a block per game. As a team, Michigan State’s interior defense averages 5.1 blocks per game — good for 15th nationally.
Weaknesses: Michigan State has struggled in close games. In games decided by less than 10 points, Michigan State went 4-5. A lot of that can come down to defensive rebounds — an area where Michigan State struggles. What’s more, in losses, MIchigan State couldn’t hit key shots from deep. Against USC, Michigan State shot just 1 of 13 (7.7 percent) on 3-pointers.
Outlook: Upperclassmen march Michigan State into the tournament. I can compete against the likes of Michigan, Iowa, Vanderbilt and Indiana, but against elite teams like Alabama, UCLA and USC, it has faltered. The Spartans need their defense to lead the way for a run, but a Sweet 16 appearance in Year 2 under Fralick would be a nice progression for the program.
What to know: Michigan State’s defense has improved mightily in Robyn Fralick’s second year with an 84.2 defensive rating.
Coach: Robyn Fralick
Player to watch: Grace VanSlooten
Vanderbilt
Strengths: With freshman Mikayla Blakes, who can score at will, Vanderbilt has a built-in advantage. She dropped 50-plus points twice this season in wins over Florida and in overtime against Auburn. Blakes is the real deal, and she’s helped by sophomore Khamil Pierre, who averages 20.5 points per game. The duo are one of two teammates (DeYona Gaston and Taliah Scott from Auburn) averaging more than 20 points per game.
Weaknesses: Those high-scoring Blakes’ games were exciting, and she held her own against tougher competition, including 24 points in an SEC tournament win over Tennessee. But as a whole, Vanderbilt struggled in the heart of SEC play. It went 8-8 in conference play, defeating Tennessee and Alabama by a combined three points, but losing to every other top conference school pretty handedly. Six of Vanderbilt’s eight conference losses were by at least 15 points.
Outlook: It’s a young team. Vanderbilt has a couple of seniors, but it is built around Blakes and Pierre. Getting a taste of the tournament is the goal here for the program’s long-term success. But if Blakes goes off, Vanderbilt can keep pace with anyone in the early rounds.
Strengths: With freshman Mikayla Blakes, who can score at will, Vanderbilt has a built-in advantage. She dropped 50-plus points twice this season in wins over Florida and in overtime against Auburn. Blakes is the real deal, and she’s helped by sophomore Khamil Pierre, who averages 20.5 points per game. The duo are one of two teammates (DeYona Gaston and Taliah Scott from Auburn) averaging more than 20 points per game.
Weaknesses: Those high-scoring Blakes’ games were exciting, and she held her own against tougher competition, including 24 points in an SEC tournament win over Tennessee. But as a whole, Vanderbilt struggled in the heart of SEC play. It went 8-8 in conference play, defeating Tennessee and Alabama by a combined three points, but losing to every other top conference school pretty handedly. Six of Vanderbilt’s eight conference losses were by at least 15 points.
Outlook: It’s a young team. Vanderbilt has a couple of seniors, but it is built around Blakes and Pierre. Getting a taste of the tournament is the goal here for the program’s long-term success. But if Blakes goes off, Vanderbilt can keep pace with anyone in the early rounds.
Strengths: With freshman Mikayla Blakes, who can score at will, Vanderbilt has a built-in advantage. She dropped 50-plus points twice this season in wins over Florida and in overtime against Auburn. Blakes is the real deal, and she’s helped by sophomore Khamil Pierre, who averages 20.5 points per game. The duo are one of two teammates (DeYona Gaston and Taliah Scott from Auburn) averaging more than 20 points per game.
Weaknesses: Those high-scoring Blakes’ games were exciting, and she held her own against tougher competition, including 24 points in an SEC tournament win over Tennessee. But as a whole, Vanderbilt struggled in the heart of SEC play. It went 8-8 in conference play, defeating Tennessee and Alabama by a combined three points, but losing to every other top conference school pretty handedly. Six of Vanderbilt’s eight conference losses were by at least 15 points.
Outlook: It’s a young team. Vanderbilt has a couple of seniors, but it is built around Blakes and Pierre. Getting a taste of the tournament is the goal here for the program’s long-term success. But if Blakes goes off, Vanderbilt can keep pace with anyone in the early rounds.
What to know: Mikayla Blakes and Khamil Pierre form a great tandem, but is that enough against elite teams?
Coach: Shea Ralph, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Mikayla Blakes
Louisville
Strengths: The Cardinals do a great job crashing the offensive boards to keep possessions alive. They rank No. 27 nationally in offensive rebounds, and for their struggles on the defensive boards, the offensive glass propels them in the upper-third of teams for total rebounds. Nyla Harris and Olivia Cochran lead the charge in that area
Weaknesses: The interior defense is soft. It ranks No. 331 nationally in blocks per game (1.8), No. 285 in fouls per game (18.2), and No. 317 in defensive rebounds per game (22.3). Fifty-five percent of opponents' points come from 2-pointers, so Louisville needs to adjust for the tournament so they aren’t eaten alive down low.
Outlook: Louisville has been blown out by upper-echelon competition (lost to Notre Dame by 18 points, NC State by 30 and UConn by 33), but it’s also won or hung around with UNC, Duke, Florida State, Oklahoma and UCLA. Freshman Taijianna Roberts has been phenomenal for the Cardinals, averaging 13.1 points, 2.4 assists and 1.7 steals. If she and senior Jayda Curry continue to have the usage run through them to alleviate Cochran’s responsibilities, Louisville could sneak through to the second weekend of play.
Strengths: The Cardinals do a great job crashing the offensive boards to keep possessions alive. They rank No. 27 nationally in offensive rebounds, and for their struggles on the defensive boards, the offensive glass propels them in the upper-third of teams for total rebounds. Nyla Harris and Olivia Cochran lead the charge in that area
Weaknesses: The interior defense is soft. It ranks No. 331 nationally in blocks per game (1.8), No. 285 in fouls per game (18.2), and No. 317 in defensive rebounds per game (22.3). Fifty-five percent of opponents' points come from 2-pointers, so Louisville needs to adjust for the tournament so they aren’t eaten alive down low.
Outlook: Louisville has been blown out by upper-echelon competition (lost to Notre Dame by 18 points, NC State by 30 and UConn by 33), but it’s also won or hung around with UNC, Duke, Florida State, Oklahoma and UCLA. Freshman Taijianna Roberts has been phenomenal for the Cardinals, averaging 13.1 points, 2.4 assists and 1.7 steals. If she and senior Jayda Curry continue to have the usage run through them to alleviate Cochran’s responsibilities, Louisville could sneak through to the second weekend of play.
Strengths: The Cardinals do a great job crashing the offensive boards to keep possessions alive. They rank No. 27 nationally in offensive rebounds, and for their struggles on the defensive boards, the offensive glass propels them in the upper-third of teams for total rebounds. Nyla Harris and Olivia Cochran lead the charge in that area
Weaknesses: The interior defense is soft. It ranks No. 331 nationally in blocks per game (1.8), No. 285 in fouls per game (18.2), and No. 317 in defensive rebounds per game (22.3). Fifty-five percent of opponents' points come from 2-pointers, so Louisville needs to adjust for the tournament so they aren’t eaten alive down low.
Outlook: Louisville has been blown out by upper-echelon competition (lost to Notre Dame by 18 points, NC State by 30 and UConn by 33), but it’s also won or hung around with UNC, Duke, Florida State, Oklahoma and UCLA. Freshman Taijianna Roberts has been phenomenal for the Cardinals, averaging 13.1 points, 2.4 assists and 1.7 steals. If she and senior Jayda Curry continue to have the usage run through them to alleviate Cochran’s responsibilities, Louisville could sneak through to the second weekend of play.
What to know: Cardinals have the lowest average 3-point percentage per game since 2015-2016.
Coach: Jeff Walz, four Sweet 16s, four Elite Eights, two Final Fours, two runner-ups
Player to watch: Tajianna Roberts
Oklahoma State
Strengths: During Jacie Hoyt’s first two years as Oklahoma State coach, the offensive output has been there, but the defensive production hasn’t. This season, the defense has improved drastically, resulting in the Cowgirls’ stellar play. Oklahoma State does it all, rebounding at a high rate, creating turnovers and featuring interior defense wiping away opposition’s opportunities.
Weaknesses: Lack of experience could hurt Oklahoma State. Stailee Heard and Micah Gray are sophomores making their tournament debuts. When the Cowgirls made the tournament in 2022-2023, Anna Gret Asi had a smaller role. That’s the three top players for the Cowgirls who have shouldered the load this season, playing in their first big-time action.
Outlook: Oklahoma State has quality wins (TCU, Kansas State, Utah, West Virginia, Baylor) but also some really bad losses (Kansas, BYU, Houston). It’ll be hard to overcome the inexperience in March.
Strengths: During Jacie Hoyt’s first two years as Oklahoma State coach, the offensive output has been there, but the defensive production hasn’t. This season, the defense has improved drastically, resulting in the Cowgirls’ stellar play. Oklahoma State does it all, rebounding at a high rate, creating turnovers and featuring interior defense wiping away opposition’s opportunities.
Weaknesses: Lack of experience could hurt Oklahoma State. Stailee Heard and Micah Gray are sophomores making their tournament debuts. When the Cowgirls made the tournament in 2022-2023, Anna Gret Asi had a smaller role. That’s the three top players for the Cowgirls who have shouldered the load this season, playing in their first big-time action.
Outlook: Oklahoma State has quality wins (TCU, Kansas State, Utah, West Virginia, Baylor) but also some really bad losses (Kansas, BYU, Houston). It’ll be hard to overcome the inexperience in March.
Strengths: During Jacie Hoyt’s first two years as Oklahoma State coach, the offensive output has been there, but the defensive production hasn’t. This season, the defense has improved drastically, resulting in the Cowgirls’ stellar play. Oklahoma State does it all, rebounding at a high rate, creating turnovers and featuring interior defense wiping away opposition’s opportunities.
Weaknesses: Lack of experience could hurt Oklahoma State. Stailee Heard and Micah Gray are sophomores making their tournament debuts. When the Cowgirls made the tournament in 2022-2023, Anna Gret Asi had a smaller role. That’s the three top players for the Cowgirls who have shouldered the load this season, playing in their first big-time action.
Outlook: Oklahoma State has quality wins (TCU, Kansas State, Utah, West Virginia, Baylor) but also some really bad losses (Kansas, BYU, Houston). It’ll be hard to overcome the inexperience in March.
What to know: Vastly improved from last season, improving its overall NET rating from 3.1 to 23.1.
Coach: Jacie Hoyt, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Stailee Heard
Richmond
Strengths: Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Maggie Doogan has been in her bag all season. The junior leads Richmond in scoring (16.3 points per game), rebounds (6.9), assists (3.6) and STOCKs (2.3). The Spiders are making their fifth tournament appearance in school history, and Doogan is a big reason.
Weaknesses: The Spiders could change their name to the Snails for the pace they play. They ranks No. 322 in the country with 66.6 possessions per 40 minutes. Incapable of extending the possession often (Richmond averages 7.9 offensive boards per game), every aspect of each game has to go right to beat top-tier opponents.
Outlook: Even in losses, Richmond has shown it can be competitive. Texas won by only 11 points, Alabama by seven and St. Joseph’s by one in the Atlantic 10 tournament. But it’s the NCAA Tournament now. The room for error is next to zero. A success will be making school history, but it’ll be an upset if it can pull that off.
Strengths: Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Maggie Doogan has been in her bag all season. The junior leads Richmond in scoring (16.3 points per game), rebounds (6.9), assists (3.6) and STOCKs (2.3). The Spiders are making their fifth tournament appearance in school history, and Doogan is a big reason.
Weaknesses: The Spiders could change their name to the Snails for the pace they play. They ranks No. 322 in the country with 66.6 possessions per 40 minutes. Incapable of extending the possession often (Richmond averages 7.9 offensive boards per game), every aspect of each game has to go right to beat top-tier opponents.
Outlook: Even in losses, Richmond has shown it can be competitive. Texas won by only 11 points, Alabama by seven and St. Joseph’s by one in the Atlantic 10 tournament. But it’s the NCAA Tournament now. The room for error is next to zero. A success will be making school history, but it’ll be an upset if it can pull that off.
Strengths: Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Maggie Doogan has been in her bag all season. The junior leads Richmond in scoring (16.3 points per game), rebounds (6.9), assists (3.6) and STOCKs (2.3). The Spiders are making their fifth tournament appearance in school history, and Doogan is a big reason.
Weaknesses: The Spiders could change their name to the Snails for the pace they play. They ranks No. 322 in the country with 66.6 possessions per 40 minutes. Incapable of extending the possession often (Richmond averages 7.9 offensive boards per game), every aspect of each game has to go right to beat top-tier opponents.
Outlook: Even in losses, Richmond has shown it can be competitive. Texas won by only 11 points, Alabama by seven and St. Joseph’s by one in the Atlantic 10 tournament. But it’s the NCAA Tournament now. The room for error is next to zero. A success will be making school history, but it’ll be an upset if it can pull that off.
What to know: Richmond has lost one game since Jan. 2, as it seeks its first tournament win.
Coach: Aaron Russell, two first-round appearances
Player to watch: Maggie Doogan
Utah
Strengths: New coach Gavin Peterson emphasizes the 3. Utah has attempted the 14th-most 3s and made the seventh-most this season. Three players shoot better than 42.7 percent from behind the arc, with Gianna Kneepkens leading the way. With this strategy, Utah’s offense features a high effective field goal rate (55 percent) and averages the sixth-most points per scoring attempt (1.15).
Weaknesses: Three-pointers are great, but they are the main source of the Utes’ offense. We’ve seen them lose games they should have won on paper (Mississippi State, Northwestern) when it struggled from downtown. Utah also struggles taking care of the ball, ranking in the 44th percentile in total turnovers and averaging 16.2 per game.
Outlook: Don’t let them get in their zone. Not defensively, but from behind the arc. No lead is safe when a team can shoot it from the perimeter like Utah. Hot shooting can carry a program like Utah through the first weekend.
Strengths: New coach Gavin Peterson emphasizes the 3. Utah has attempted the 14th-most 3s and made the seventh-most this season. Three players shoot better than 42.7 percent from behind the arc, with Gianna Kneepkens leading the way. With this strategy, Utah’s offense features a high effective field goal rate (55 percent) and averages the sixth-most points per scoring attempt (1.15).
Weaknesses: Three-pointers are great, but they are the main source of the Utes’ offense. We’ve seen them lose games they should have won on paper (Mississippi State, Northwestern) when it struggled from downtown. Utah also struggles taking care of the ball, ranking in the 44th percentile in total turnovers and averaging 16.2 per game.
Outlook: Don’t let them get in their zone. Not defensively, but from behind the arc. No lead is safe when a team can shoot it from the perimeter like Utah. Hot shooting can carry a program like Utah through the first weekend.
Strengths: New coach Gavin Peterson emphasizes the 3. Utah has attempted the 14th-most 3s and made the seventh-most this season. Three players shoot better than 42.7 percent from behind the arc, with Gianna Kneepkens leading the way. With this strategy, Utah’s offense features a high effective field goal rate (55 percent) and averages the sixth-most points per scoring attempt (1.15).
Weaknesses: Three-pointers are great, but they are the main source of the Utes’ offense. We’ve seen them lose games they should have won on paper (Mississippi State, Northwestern) when it struggled from downtown. Utah also struggles taking care of the ball, ranking in the 44th percentile in total turnovers and averaging 16.2 per game.
Outlook: Don’t let them get in their zone. Not defensively, but from behind the arc. No lead is safe when a team can shoot it from the perimeter like Utah. Hot shooting can carry a program like Utah through the first weekend.
What to know: The Utes have their highest 3-point percentage (37.1 percent) since the 2007-2008 season (39.6 percent).
Coach: Gavin Petersen
Player to watch: Gianna Kneepkens
Illinois
Strengths: It’s a senior-heavy team for Illinois, as four senior starters have started all 29 games. There’s unison. There’s familiarity. There’s leadership. Kendall Bostic leads the way, averaging a double-double
Weaknesses: Illinois has a weird offense in the sense that it’s just middle of the road in field goal percentage from inside the arc (47.1 percent) but is in the 25th percentile in 3s attempted. Illinois’ defense doesn’t do itself any favors with interrupting the opponents’ flow as it ranks toward the bottom in steals and block rate.
Outlook: Games against UCLA, USC and Michigan make a tough end of the season, and Illinois lost to each by an average of 11.3 points. That’s not even counting its Big Ten tournament loss to Nebraska. Its only Top 25 wins came against Iowa and Maryland, and it took advantage of a soft schedule from mid-January to mid-February when it played six games against opponents ranked outside the top 100. Despite senior leadership and experience, an early exit seems a likely scenario.
Strengths: It’s a senior-heavy team for Illinois, as four senior starters have started all 29 games. There’s unison. There’s familiarity. There’s leadership. Kendall Bostic leads the way, averaging a double-double
Weaknesses: Illinois has a weird offense in the sense that it’s just middle of the road in field goal percentage from inside the arc (47.1 percent) but is in the 25th percentile in 3s attempted. Illinois’ defense doesn’t do itself any favors with interrupting the opponents’ flow as it ranks toward the bottom in steals and block rate.
Outlook: Games against UCLA, USC and Michigan make a tough end of the season, and Illinois lost to each by an average of 11.3 points. That’s not even counting its Big Ten tournament loss to Nebraska. Its only Top 25 wins came against Iowa and Maryland, and it took advantage of a soft schedule from mid-January to mid-February when it played six games against opponents ranked outside the top 100. Despite senior leadership and experience, an early exit seems a likely scenario.
Strengths: It’s a senior-heavy team for Illinois, as four senior starters have started all 29 games. There’s unison. There’s familiarity. There’s leadership. Kendall Bostic leads the way, averaging a double-double
Weaknesses: Illinois has a weird offense in the sense that it’s just middle of the road in field goal percentage from inside the arc (47.1 percent) but is in the 25th percentile in 3s attempted. Illinois’ defense doesn’t do itself any favors with interrupting the opponents’ flow as it ranks toward the bottom in steals and block rate.
Outlook: Games against UCLA, USC and Michigan make a tough end of the season, and Illinois lost to each by an average of 11.3 points. That’s not even counting its Big Ten tournament loss to Nebraska. Its only Top 25 wins came against Iowa and Maryland, and it took advantage of a soft schedule from mid-January to mid-February when it played six games against opponents ranked outside the top 100. Despite senior leadership and experience, an early exit seems a likely scenario.
What to know: A slow-paced team that struggled to close the season, losing its final three regular-season games.
Coach: Shauna Green, four first-round appearances
Player to watch: Kendall Bostic
California
Strengths: If you’re seeking a balanced team, look no further than Cal. It uses the same starting lineup, and all five starters not only average double-figures in scoring, but all play big minutes. Cal relies on three seniors and two freshmen (Lulu Twidale and Marta Suárez). Jayda Noble and Lola Donez are the only reserves who play more than 10 minutes per game. The familiarity on offense breeds results. Cal averages 73.7 points per game and has the nation’s No. 31 field goal percentage (45.8 percent).
Weaknesses: Tom Thibodeau, the New York Knicks head coach, would love this team with the heavy minutes the starters play. Ugonne Onyiah is the only starter playing fewer than 29.1 minutes a game. It’s fine for the regular season, but the NCAA Tournament is a grind. There’s no let up, and Cal runs the risk of tiring the further it advances.
Outlook: Depth will be an issue for Cal. It can survive one round — maybe two — relying on only its starters. Eventually, it’ll need its bench, of which only senior Natalie Ackerman has a positive PER in 174 minutes.
Strengths: If you’re seeking a balanced team, look no further than Cal. It uses the same starting lineup, and all five starters not only average double-figures in scoring, but all play big minutes. Cal relies on three seniors and two freshmen (Lulu Twidale and Marta Suárez). Jayda Noble and Lola Donez are the only reserves who play more than 10 minutes per game. The familiarity on offense breeds results. Cal averages 73.7 points per game and has the nation’s No. 31 field goal percentage (45.8 percent).
Weaknesses: Tom Thibodeau, the New York Knicks head coach, would love this team with the heavy minutes the starters play. Ugonne Onyiah is the only starter playing fewer than 29.1 minutes a game. It’s fine for the regular season, but the NCAA Tournament is a grind. There’s no let up, and Cal runs the risk of tiring the further it advances.
Outlook: Depth will be an issue for Cal. It can survive one round — maybe two — relying on only its starters. Eventually, it’ll need its bench, of which only senior Natalie Ackerman has a positive PER in 174 minutes.
Strengths: If you’re seeking a balanced team, look no further than Cal. It uses the same starting lineup, and all five starters not only average double-figures in scoring, but all play big minutes. Cal relies on three seniors and two freshmen (Lulu Twidale and Marta Suárez). Jayda Noble and Lola Donez are the only reserves who play more than 10 minutes per game. The familiarity on offense breeds results. Cal averages 73.7 points per game and has the nation’s No. 31 field goal percentage (45.8 percent).
Weaknesses: Tom Thibodeau, the New York Knicks head coach, would love this team with the heavy minutes the starters play. Ugonne Onyiah is the only starter playing fewer than 29.1 minutes a game. It’s fine for the regular season, but the NCAA Tournament is a grind. There’s no let up, and Cal runs the risk of tiring the further it advances.
Outlook: Depth will be an issue for Cal. It can survive one round — maybe two — relying on only its starters. Eventually, it’ll need its bench, of which only senior Natalie Ackerman has a positive PER in 174 minutes.
What to know: First ACC season was a success, with eight losses as its fewest since 2008-2009.
Coach: Charmin Smith
Player to watch: Marta Suárez
Georgia Tech
Strengths: Georgia Tech excels in finding the right shot and extending possessions with offensive rebounding. The Yellow Jackets take care of the ball, averaging just 12 turnovers per game, which speaks volumes to the play of juniors Kara Dunn, Tonie Morgan and freshman Chazadi “Chit Chat” Wright. Wright is one of the more exciting freshmen who is set up for a breakout sophomore season.
Weaknesses: The Yellow Jackets’ interior defense isn’t great. It has a 5.7 percent block rate, which ranks No. 302. Though they attempt a ton of 3s (792 this season), they only shoot 32.1 percent from downtown.
Outlook: Tech had a great start, winning 15 straight games including victories over UNC and Mississippi State, but when it got into the heart of ACC play, it lost nine of its last 15 games. The good news is that the Yellow Jackets’ biggest losses were by 15 points apiece to Notre Dame and NC State. Five of their nine losses were by single digits.They have the talent to advance to the second weekend, but is their first-half confidence still here?
Strengths: Georgia Tech excels in finding the right shot and extending possessions with offensive rebounding. The Yellow Jackets take care of the ball, averaging just 12 turnovers per game, which speaks volumes to the play of juniors Kara Dunn, Tonie Morgan and freshman Chazadi “Chit Chat” Wright. Wright is one of the more exciting freshmen who is set up for a breakout sophomore season.
Weaknesses: The Yellow Jackets’ interior defense isn’t great. It has a 5.7 percent block rate, which ranks No. 302. Though they attempt a ton of 3s (792 this season), they only shoot 32.1 percent from downtown.
Outlook: Tech had a great start, winning 15 straight games including victories over UNC and Mississippi State, but when it got into the heart of ACC play, it lost nine of its last 15 games. The good news is that the Yellow Jackets’ biggest losses were by 15 points apiece to Notre Dame and NC State. Five of their nine losses were by single digits.They have the talent to advance to the second weekend, but is their first-half confidence still here?
Strengths: Georgia Tech excels in finding the right shot and extending possessions with offensive rebounding. The Yellow Jackets take care of the ball, averaging just 12 turnovers per game, which speaks volumes to the play of juniors Kara Dunn, Tonie Morgan and freshman Chazadi “Chit Chat” Wright. Wright is one of the more exciting freshmen who is set up for a breakout sophomore season.
Weaknesses: The Yellow Jackets’ interior defense isn’t great. It has a 5.7 percent block rate, which ranks No. 302. Though they attempt a ton of 3s (792 this season), they only shoot 32.1 percent from downtown.
Outlook: Tech had a great start, winning 15 straight games including victories over UNC and Mississippi State, but when it got into the heart of ACC play, it lost nine of its last 15 games. The good news is that the Yellow Jackets’ biggest losses were by 15 points apiece to Notre Dame and NC State. Five of their nine losses were by single digits.They have the talent to advance to the second weekend, but is their first-half confidence still here?
What to know: A red-hot undefeated start ended with the Yellow Jackets going 6-9 to end the regular season.
Coach: Nell Fortner, one Sweet 16
Player to watch: Chazadi Wright
Indiana
Strengths: There’s a lot of veteran play for Indiana, as it relies on seniors and three key juniors — Shay Ciezki, Lilly Meister and Yarden Garzon. This will be Sydney Parrish’s swan song, as the senior overcame an early-season knee injury, which forced her to miss five games. Indiana features a well-balanced offense, playing a calculated, slow pace.
Weaknesses: Indiana struggled mightily in the second half of the season. The Hoosiers’ average margin of victory is at 6.2 points – not leaving a ton of wiggle room when unable to dictate the pace. They’re essentially giving themselves only one shot per possession, as they’re in the second percentile in offensive rebounds per game.
Outlook: Which Indiana team will show up? The team in the first half that defeated Baylor? Or the second-half team that lost by double-digits to Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois and UCLA? It’s hard to guess, but Indiana doesn’t look like it can advance far in the bracket.
Strengths: There’s a lot of veteran play for Indiana, as it relies on seniors and three key juniors — Shay Ciezki, Lilly Meister and Yarden Garzon. This will be Sydney Parrish’s swan song, as the senior overcame an early-season knee injury, which forced her to miss five games. Indiana features a well-balanced offense, playing a calculated, slow pace.
Weaknesses: Indiana struggled mightily in the second half of the season. The Hoosiers’ average margin of victory is at 6.2 points – not leaving a ton of wiggle room when unable to dictate the pace. They’re essentially giving themselves only one shot per possession, as they’re in the second percentile in offensive rebounds per game.
Outlook: Which Indiana team will show up? The team in the first half that defeated Baylor? Or the second-half team that lost by double-digits to Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois and UCLA? It’s hard to guess, but Indiana doesn’t look like it can advance far in the bracket.
Strengths: There’s a lot of veteran play for Indiana, as it relies on seniors and three key juniors — Shay Ciezki, Lilly Meister and Yarden Garzon. This will be Sydney Parrish’s swan song, as the senior overcame an early-season knee injury, which forced her to miss five games. Indiana features a well-balanced offense, playing a calculated, slow pace.
Weaknesses: Indiana struggled mightily in the second half of the season. The Hoosiers’ average margin of victory is at 6.2 points – not leaving a ton of wiggle room when unable to dictate the pace. They’re essentially giving themselves only one shot per possession, as they’re in the second percentile in offensive rebounds per game.
Outlook: Which Indiana team will show up? The team in the first half that defeated Baylor? Or the second-half team that lost by double-digits to Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois and UCLA? It’s hard to guess, but Indiana doesn’t look like it can advance far in the bracket.
What to know: A season of two halves, as Indiana went 9-9 after Jan. 1.
Coach: Teri Moren, two Sweet 16s, one Elite Eight
Player to watch: Jadyn Donovan
Creighton
Strengths: For the second straight season, Creighton features a senior-heavy roster with four as starters. The Bluejays are deep with nine players appearing in at least 29 games this season, and seven of them shooting better than 40 percent from the field. Creighton doesn’t get to the free-throw line a lot, but when it does, it makes opponents pay with its 80.4 percent shooting (third nationally).
Weaknesses: There’s no evidence Creighton can compete with good teams. It can only play who is on its schedule, of course, but in those five losses to ranked opponents, its average margin of defeat was 19.4 points.
Outlook: Creighton had a similar build last year, relying on seniors and featuring a strong record coming out of a bad conference. Another second-round exit seems likely this year, too.
Strengths: For the second straight season, Creighton features a senior-heavy roster with four as starters. The Bluejays are deep with nine players appearing in at least 29 games this season, and seven of them shooting better than 40 percent from the field. Creighton doesn’t get to the free-throw line a lot, but when it does, it makes opponents pay with its 80.4 percent shooting (third nationally).
Weaknesses: There’s no evidence Creighton can compete with good teams. It can only play who is on its schedule, of course, but in those five losses to ranked opponents, its average margin of defeat was 19.4 points.
Outlook: Creighton had a similar build last year, relying on seniors and featuring a strong record coming out of a bad conference. Another second-round exit seems likely this year, too.
Strengths: For the second straight season, Creighton features a senior-heavy roster with four as starters. The Bluejays are deep with nine players appearing in at least 29 games this season, and seven of them shooting better than 40 percent from the field. Creighton doesn’t get to the free-throw line a lot, but when it does, it makes opponents pay with its 80.4 percent shooting (third nationally).
Weaknesses: There’s no evidence Creighton can compete with good teams. It can only play who is on its schedule, of course, but in those five losses to ranked opponents, its average margin of defeat was 19.4 points.
Outlook: Creighton had a similar build last year, relying on seniors and featuring a strong record coming out of a bad conference. Another second-round exit seems likely this year, too.
What to know: Benefits greatly from playing inferior Big East competition. It's 0-5 against ranked teams this season.
Coach: Jim Flanery, one Elite Eight
Player to watch: Lauren Jensen
Mississippi State
Strengths: Debreasha Powe has shot lights out from behind the arc. The junior shoots at a 40.4 percent clip on 3-pointers, giving the Bulldogs a threat on the wing to go along with freshman Madina Okot down low.
Weaknesses: Turnovers have been the story for Mississippi State over the last three seasons. The story remains the same as the Bulldogs have six players averaging more than two turnovers per game. Eniya Russell’s 3.1 per game was the fifth-worst mark in the SEC this season.
Outlook: Turnovers are a concern as is free-throw shooting. The Bulldogs are shooting 71.3 percent from the charity stripe, and they’ve had only five games where they shot higher than 80 percent. Bad foul shooting and a high turnover rate doesn’t bode well for a deep run — even if for an extremely talented team.
Strengths: Debreasha Powe has shot lights out from behind the arc. The junior shoots at a 40.4 percent clip on 3-pointers, giving the Bulldogs a threat on the wing to go along with freshman Madina Okot down low.
Weaknesses: Turnovers have been the story for Mississippi State over the last three seasons. The story remains the same as the Bulldogs have six players averaging more than two turnovers per game. Eniya Russell’s 3.1 per game was the fifth-worst mark in the SEC this season.
Outlook: Turnovers are a concern as is free-throw shooting. The Bulldogs are shooting 71.3 percent from the charity stripe, and they’ve had only five games where they shot higher than 80 percent. Bad foul shooting and a high turnover rate doesn’t bode well for a deep run — even if for an extremely talented team.
Strengths: Debreasha Powe has shot lights out from behind the arc. The junior shoots at a 40.4 percent clip on 3-pointers, giving the Bulldogs a threat on the wing to go along with freshman Madina Okot down low.
Weaknesses: Turnovers have been the story for Mississippi State over the last three seasons. The story remains the same as the Bulldogs have six players averaging more than two turnovers per game. Eniya Russell’s 3.1 per game was the fifth-worst mark in the SEC this season.
Outlook: Turnovers are a concern as is free-throw shooting. The Bulldogs are shooting 71.3 percent from the charity stripe, and they’ve had only five games where they shot higher than 80 percent. Bad foul shooting and a high turnover rate doesn’t bode well for a deep run — even if for an extremely talented team.
What to know: Bulldogs’ turnovers (16.8 per game) continue to hold them back.
Coach: Sam Purcell, one Round of 32 appearance
Player to watch: Jerkaila Jordan
Harvard
Strengths: The Crimson are disruptors. Their active defense stymies opponents and controls the slow pace to interrupt passing lanes. Four starters average at least 1.2 steals per game, including senior Harmoni Turner’s 2.8. Turner is one of 22 Division I players to average at least 2.8 steals.
Weaknesses: Harvard plays at a slow pace, but it isn’t able to get to the foul line at a good rate at all. It ranks No. 319 in free throws at 277. To put that into perspective, Arkansas’ Izzy Higginbottom has attempted 267 free throws on her own.
Outlook: Harvard’s biggest win came in the second game of the season with an overtime victory against Indiana. Since then, it played more teams (17) ranked outside of the top 100 than it did teams ranked inside (nine).
Strengths: The Crimson are disruptors. Their active defense stymies opponents and controls the slow pace to interrupt passing lanes. Four starters average at least 1.2 steals per game, including senior Harmoni Turner’s 2.8. Turner is one of 22 Division I players to average at least 2.8 steals.
Weaknesses: Harvard plays at a slow pace, but it isn’t able to get to the foul line at a good rate at all. It ranks No. 319 in free throws at 277. To put that into perspective, Arkansas’ Izzy Higginbottom has attempted 267 free throws on her own.
Outlook: Harvard’s biggest win came in the second game of the season with an overtime victory against Indiana. Since then, it played more teams (17) ranked outside of the top 100 than it did teams ranked inside (nine).
Strengths: The Crimson are disruptors. Their active defense stymies opponents and controls the slow pace to interrupt passing lanes. Four starters average at least 1.2 steals per game, including senior Harmoni Turner’s 2.8. Turner is one of 22 Division I players to average at least 2.8 steals.
Weaknesses: Harvard plays at a slow pace, but it isn’t able to get to the foul line at a good rate at all. It ranks No. 319 in free throws at 277. To put that into perspective, Arkansas’ Izzy Higginbottom has attempted 267 free throws on her own.
Outlook: Harvard’s biggest win came in the second game of the season with an overtime victory against Indiana. Since then, it played more teams (17) ranked outside of the top 100 than it did teams ranked inside (nine).
What to know: A hard-nosed team playing tight defense and holding opponents to the fewest points per game (51.8).
Coach: Carrie Moore
Player to watch: Harmoni Turner
Oregon
Strengths: Oregon’s a senior-heavy team, reliant on many transfers. Deja Kelly (UNC), Peyton Scott (Miami of Ohio), Nani Falatea (BYU), Elisa Mevius (Siena), Amina Muhammad (Texas) and Alexis Whitfield (UC Santa Barbara) are among transfers who joined Oregon in its first season in the Big Ten. All besides Mevius are in their first season with the Ducks, and it’s allowed Oregon to be, well, average. That’s not bad, exactly, but it’s not exactly good, either. Kelly’s usage has dipped since leaving North Carolina, but she’s still the Ducks’ leading scorer, has the highest usage rate, and the highest win-share total on the team.
Weaknesses: Oregon plays at a slow pace and allows opponents to stay in the game too often. Its average margin per game is just 5.3 points, and it struggles to stand out positively in any area. Standing out poorly, though? Yeah, Oregon does that. Its rebounding is average, at best, and it struggles from the free-throw and the 3-point lines.
Outlook: Oregon was a combined seven points away in close wins against Washington and Minnesota to losing six games in a row in February. The Ducks ended a consecutive season on a down note after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten tournament. It’s been a lot of square pegs trying to fit into round holes as Oregon brought in a lot of new faces with conference realignment. It’s going to be a difficult few years for the Ducks.
Strengths: Oregon’s a senior-heavy team, reliant on many transfers. Deja Kelly (UNC), Peyton Scott (Miami of Ohio), Nani Falatea (BYU), Elisa Mevius (Siena), Amina Muhammad (Texas) and Alexis Whitfield (UC Santa Barbara) are among transfers who joined Oregon in its first season in the Big Ten. All besides Mevius are in their first season with the Ducks, and it’s allowed Oregon to be, well, average. That’s not bad, exactly, but it’s not exactly good, either. Kelly’s usage has dipped since leaving North Carolina, but she’s still the Ducks’ leading scorer, has the highest usage rate, and the highest win-share total on the team.
Weaknesses: Oregon plays at a slow pace and allows opponents to stay in the game too often. Its average margin per game is just 5.3 points, and it struggles to stand out positively in any area. Standing out poorly, though? Yeah, Oregon does that. Its rebounding is average, at best, and it struggles from the free-throw and the 3-point lines.
Outlook: Oregon was a combined seven points away in close wins against Washington and Minnesota to losing six games in a row in February. The Ducks ended a consecutive season on a down note after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten tournament. It’s been a lot of square pegs trying to fit into round holes as Oregon brought in a lot of new faces with conference realignment. It’s going to be a difficult few years for the Ducks.
Strengths: Oregon’s a senior-heavy team, reliant on many transfers. Deja Kelly (UNC), Peyton Scott (Miami of Ohio), Nani Falatea (BYU), Elisa Mevius (Siena), Amina Muhammad (Texas) and Alexis Whitfield (UC Santa Barbara) are among transfers who joined Oregon in its first season in the Big Ten. All besides Mevius are in their first season with the Ducks, and it’s allowed Oregon to be, well, average. That’s not bad, exactly, but it’s not exactly good, either. Kelly’s usage has dipped since leaving North Carolina, but she’s still the Ducks’ leading scorer, has the highest usage rate, and the highest win-share total on the team.
Weaknesses: Oregon plays at a slow pace and allows opponents to stay in the game too often. Its average margin per game is just 5.3 points, and it struggles to stand out positively in any area. Standing out poorly, though? Yeah, Oregon does that. Its rebounding is average, at best, and it struggles from the free-throw and the 3-point lines.
Outlook: Oregon was a combined seven points away in close wins against Washington and Minnesota to losing six games in a row in February. The Ducks ended a consecutive season on a down note after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten tournament. It’s been a lot of square pegs trying to fit into round holes as Oregon brought in a lot of new faces with conference realignment. It’s going to be a difficult few years for the Ducks.
What to know: The Ducks put last season behind them, increasing their NET rating from -11.1 to 7.2.
Coach: Kelly Graves, one Final Four
Player to watch: Deja Kelly
Nebraska
Strengths: The Huskers aren’t afraid to let it fly from deep, as Britt Prince, Alberte Rimdal and Logan Nissley finished the regular season each shooting above 35 percent on 3s. As a team, Nebraska ranks 12th nationally in shooting 37.3 percent on 3-pointers. Senior Alexis Markowski is putting up career-highs in points, field goal percentage and PER, while leading Nebraska in usage rate.
Weaknesses: The Huskers play at an average pace, but when the opponent pushes the tempo, Nebraska struggles. Opponents average 95.7 points per 100 possessions, which trailed Nebraska’s own mark by 10.3 points, but it had a bottom-third defensive ranking.
Outlook: Nebraska struggles slowing opponents, and it doesn’t do itself any favors by jumping passing lanes. The Cornhuskers trounced Northwestern by 21 points to end the regular season, but unless they dictate pace consistently, they could struggle to get beyond the first weekend.
Strengths: The Huskers aren’t afraid to let it fly from deep, as Britt Prince, Alberte Rimdal and Logan Nissley finished the regular season each shooting above 35 percent on 3s. As a team, Nebraska ranks 12th nationally in shooting 37.3 percent on 3-pointers. Senior Alexis Markowski is putting up career-highs in points, field goal percentage and PER, while leading Nebraska in usage rate.
Weaknesses: The Huskers play at an average pace, but when the opponent pushes the tempo, Nebraska struggles. Opponents average 95.7 points per 100 possessions, which trailed Nebraska’s own mark by 10.3 points, but it had a bottom-third defensive ranking.
Outlook: Nebraska struggles slowing opponents, and it doesn’t do itself any favors by jumping passing lanes. The Cornhuskers trounced Northwestern by 21 points to end the regular season, but unless they dictate pace consistently, they could struggle to get beyond the first weekend.
Strengths: The Huskers aren’t afraid to let it fly from deep, as Britt Prince, Alberte Rimdal and Logan Nissley finished the regular season each shooting above 35 percent on 3s. As a team, Nebraska ranks 12th nationally in shooting 37.3 percent on 3-pointers. Senior Alexis Markowski is putting up career-highs in points, field goal percentage and PER, while leading Nebraska in usage rate.
Weaknesses: The Huskers play at an average pace, but when the opponent pushes the tempo, Nebraska struggles. Opponents average 95.7 points per 100 possessions, which trailed Nebraska’s own mark by 10.3 points, but it had a bottom-third defensive ranking.
Outlook: Nebraska struggles slowing opponents, and it doesn’t do itself any favors by jumping passing lanes. The Cornhuskers trounced Northwestern by 21 points to end the regular season, but unless they dictate pace consistently, they could struggle to get beyond the first weekend.
What to know: The Huskers lost five of its final eight regular-season games, four of which were to unranked opponents.
Coach: Amy Williams, one Round of 32 appearance
Player to watch: Alexis Markowski
South Dakota State
Strengths: The Jackrabbits play at a slow pace (69.4 possessions per 40 minutes) but are one of the country’s most efficient teams, averaging 1.16 points per scoring attempt. South Dakota State does it inside and out, shooting 54.7 percent from inside the arc and 37 percent from downtown, ranking No. 9 and No. 10 in the country, respectively.
Weaknesses: It’s the same story as last year. South Dakota State can’t help that it’s in the Summit League, but when it faces nonconference competition, it struggles mightily. It plays a good fundamental style of basketball, maximizing touches, finding the right shot and limiting turnovers. That may work against St. Thomas and Oral Roberts, but against tournament teams, better talent wins out.
Outlook: South Dakota State had a similar season last year and lost to Utah in the first round. Aaron Johnston will have to wait longer to try to recapture that Sweet 16 run.
Strengths: The Jackrabbits play at a slow pace (69.4 possessions per 40 minutes) but are one of the country’s most efficient teams, averaging 1.16 points per scoring attempt. South Dakota State does it inside and out, shooting 54.7 percent from inside the arc and 37 percent from downtown, ranking No. 9 and No. 10 in the country, respectively.
Weaknesses: It’s the same story as last year. South Dakota State can’t help that it’s in the Summit League, but when it faces nonconference competition, it struggles mightily. It plays a good fundamental style of basketball, maximizing touches, finding the right shot and limiting turnovers. That may work against St. Thomas and Oral Roberts, but against tournament teams, better talent wins out.
Outlook: South Dakota State had a similar season last year and lost to Utah in the first round. Aaron Johnston will have to wait longer to try to recapture that Sweet 16 run.
Strengths: The Jackrabbits play at a slow pace (69.4 possessions per 40 minutes) but are one of the country’s most efficient teams, averaging 1.16 points per scoring attempt. South Dakota State does it inside and out, shooting 54.7 percent from inside the arc and 37 percent from downtown, ranking No. 9 and No. 10 in the country, respectively.
Weaknesses: It’s the same story as last year. South Dakota State can’t help that it’s in the Summit League, but when it faces nonconference competition, it struggles mightily. It plays a good fundamental style of basketball, maximizing touches, finding the right shot and limiting turnovers. That may work against St. Thomas and Oral Roberts, but against tournament teams, better talent wins out.
Outlook: South Dakota State had a similar season last year and lost to Utah in the first round. Aaron Johnston will have to wait longer to try to recapture that Sweet 16 run.
What to know: Undefeated since the start of 2025, but Creighton is the only tournament team it has defeated.
Coach: Aaron Johnston, one Sweet 16
Player to watch: Brooklyn Meyer
George Mason
Strengths: George Mason interrupts the passing lanes, plays tight defense and can hit the outside shot with ease. Four players ended the regular season making more than 40 percent on 3-pointers. Paula Suarez, Zahirah Walton and Jada Brown also average more than one steal per game..
Weaknesses: There’s not much George Mason struggles to do. It checks all of the boxes. The nitpick flaw is that it hasn’t played top nonconference competition outside of Maryland, which it lost to by 10 points.
Outlook: Will George Mason make the Sweet 16 like the men’s program did in 2010? It’s unlikely, but it is a sneaky pick for pulling off a first-round upset with its hot 3-point shooting and elite defense.
Strengths: George Mason interrupts the passing lanes, plays tight defense and can hit the outside shot with ease. Four players ended the regular season making more than 40 percent on 3-pointers. Paula Suarez, Zahirah Walton and Jada Brown also average more than one steal per game..
Weaknesses: There’s not much George Mason struggles to do. It checks all of the boxes. The nitpick flaw is that it hasn’t played top nonconference competition outside of Maryland, which it lost to by 10 points.
Outlook: Will George Mason make the Sweet 16 like the men’s program did in 2010? It’s unlikely, but it is a sneaky pick for pulling off a first-round upset with its hot 3-point shooting and elite defense.
Strengths: George Mason interrupts the passing lanes, plays tight defense and can hit the outside shot with ease. Four players ended the regular season making more than 40 percent on 3-pointers. Paula Suarez, Zahirah Walton and Jada Brown also average more than one steal per game..
Weaknesses: There’s not much George Mason struggles to do. It checks all of the boxes. The nitpick flaw is that it hasn’t played top nonconference competition outside of Maryland, which it lost to by 10 points.
Outlook: Will George Mason make the Sweet 16 like the men’s program did in 2010? It’s unlikely, but it is a sneaky pick for pulling off a first-round upset with its hot 3-point shooting and elite defense.
What to know: The Patriots allowed the fewest points per game in school history at 56.9.
Coach: Vanessa Blair-Lewis
Player to watch: Zahirah Watson
Columbia
Strengths: The Lions have a three-headed attack with Kitty Henderson, Riley Weiss and Cecelia Collins leading the offensive charge. But Columbia’s defense is the head-turner. It ranks in the 87th percentile in defensive rating, and seven players averaged at least one steal per game through the regular season.
Weaknesses: It’s the same minus that we see with other teams in the Ivy League. The strength of schedule just isn’t great. Columbia plays at a snail’s pace, averaging 68.4 possessions per 40 minutes. For comparison, its opponents average an average pace of 67.5. There are only 21 teams with a worse number.
Outlook: Columbia’s defense is legit, but its top win was over No. 43 Harvard. A first weekend exit is in the cards.
Strengths: The Lions have a three-headed attack with Kitty Henderson, Riley Weiss and Cecelia Collins leading the offensive charge. But Columbia’s defense is the head-turner. It ranks in the 87th percentile in defensive rating, and seven players averaged at least one steal per game through the regular season.
Weaknesses: It’s the same minus that we see with other teams in the Ivy League. The strength of schedule just isn’t great. Columbia plays at a snail’s pace, averaging 68.4 possessions per 40 minutes. For comparison, its opponents average an average pace of 67.5. There are only 21 teams with a worse number.
Outlook: Columbia’s defense is legit, but its top win was over No. 43 Harvard. A first weekend exit is in the cards.
Strengths: The Lions have a three-headed attack with Kitty Henderson, Riley Weiss and Cecelia Collins leading the offensive charge. But Columbia’s defense is the head-turner. It ranks in the 87th percentile in defensive rating, and seven players averaged at least one steal per game through the regular season.
Weaknesses: It’s the same minus that we see with other teams in the Ivy League. The strength of schedule just isn’t great. Columbia plays at a snail’s pace, averaging 68.4 possessions per 40 minutes. For comparison, its opponents average an average pace of 67.5. There are only 21 teams with a worse number.
Outlook: Columbia’s defense is legit, but its top win was over No. 43 Harvard. A first weekend exit is in the cards.
What to know: A slow-paced offense that thrives with its defense.
Coach: Megan Griffith
Player to watch: Kitty Henderson
Washington
Strengths: Unlike many former Pac-12 teams, Washington retained last season’s core. Elle Ladine has led the charge, posting the second-highest PER (26.3) and the highest wins shares (3.7) and usage rate (27.4 percent) among the Huskies. But Hannah Stines, Salvia Sellers and Dalayah Daniels also shoulder a load of the scoring, each averaging double-figures per game.
Weaknesses: Can the Huskies get to the free-throw line? It ranked last nationally in free-throw rate during the regular season, and it made 249 throughout the season. Three DI players attempted more free throws this season than Washington made. The Huskies also average 34.3 rebounds per game — No. 249 nationally.
Outlook: Washington has lost to some fantastic teams this season, including (ranked at the time) No. 7 LSU, No. 4 UCLA, No. 22 Utah, No. 25 Michigan State, No. 21 Iowa, No. 16 Ohio State, No. 24 Maryland and No. 6 USC. The problem is, even though some of those losses were close, Washington’s best win was against No. 38 Illinois. Which is OK, but the Huskies haven’t shown the ability to win key games, which will limit them during the tournament.
Strengths: Unlike many former Pac-12 teams, Washington retained last season’s core. Elle Ladine has led the charge, posting the second-highest PER (26.3) and the highest wins shares (3.7) and usage rate (27.4 percent) among the Huskies. But Hannah Stines, Salvia Sellers and Dalayah Daniels also shoulder a load of the scoring, each averaging double-figures per game.
Weaknesses: Can the Huskies get to the free-throw line? It ranked last nationally in free-throw rate during the regular season, and it made 249 throughout the season. Three DI players attempted more free throws this season than Washington made. The Huskies also average 34.3 rebounds per game — No. 249 nationally.
Outlook: Washington has lost to some fantastic teams this season, including (ranked at the time) No. 7 LSU, No. 4 UCLA, No. 22 Utah, No. 25 Michigan State, No. 21 Iowa, No. 16 Ohio State, No. 24 Maryland and No. 6 USC. The problem is, even though some of those losses were close, Washington’s best win was against No. 38 Illinois. Which is OK, but the Huskies haven’t shown the ability to win key games, which will limit them during the tournament.
Strengths: Unlike many former Pac-12 teams, Washington retained last season’s core. Elle Ladine has led the charge, posting the second-highest PER (26.3) and the highest wins shares (3.7) and usage rate (27.4 percent) among the Huskies. But Hannah Stines, Salvia Sellers and Dalayah Daniels also shoulder a load of the scoring, each averaging double-figures per game.
Weaknesses: Can the Huskies get to the free-throw line? It ranked last nationally in free-throw rate during the regular season, and it made 249 throughout the season. Three DI players attempted more free throws this season than Washington made. The Huskies also average 34.3 rebounds per game — No. 249 nationally.
Outlook: Washington has lost to some fantastic teams this season, including (ranked at the time) No. 7 LSU, No. 4 UCLA, No. 22 Utah, No. 25 Michigan State, No. 21 Iowa, No. 16 Ohio State, No. 24 Maryland and No. 6 USC. The problem is, even though some of those losses were close, Washington’s best win was against No. 38 Illinois. Which is OK, but the Huskies haven’t shown the ability to win key games, which will limit them during the tournament.
What to know: Consistency has been key for Year 1 in the Big Ten. Four starters started every game.
Coach: Tina Langley, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Elle Ladine
Iowa State
Strengths: Audi Crooks remains one of the best players who doesn’t get the love that she should, despite getting the SLAMU cover. Iowa State can score with anyone, averaging 77.1 points per game behind Crooks and Addy Brown. The duo owns the defensive glass, averaging 15.2 combined rebounds per game. Iowa State has the nation’s second-best defensive rebounding rate (77.4 percent).
Weaknesses: As good as Iowa State is on the defensive boards, it gets absolutely crushed on the offensive glass. Iowa State ranks No. 324 on offensive boards. It’s not the only struggle Iowa State has, hence its seeding. The Cyclones struggle mightily from 3-point range and on foul shooting, making 36 percent and 73 percent from the respective areas.
Outlook: Iowa State had a huge win over Kansas State to end the regular season, so it can hang with tough teams. But against top 15 opponents, the Cyclones lost seven games by an average of 19.7 points. Crooks is an elite player, but she won’t be enough to carry the Cyclones to a deep run.
Strengths: Audi Crooks remains one of the best players who doesn’t get the love that she should, despite getting the SLAMU cover. Iowa State can score with anyone, averaging 77.1 points per game behind Crooks and Addy Brown. The duo owns the defensive glass, averaging 15.2 combined rebounds per game. Iowa State has the nation’s second-best defensive rebounding rate (77.4 percent).
Weaknesses: As good as Iowa State is on the defensive boards, it gets absolutely crushed on the offensive glass. Iowa State ranks No. 324 on offensive boards. It’s not the only struggle Iowa State has, hence its seeding. The Cyclones struggle mightily from 3-point range and on foul shooting, making 36 percent and 73 percent from the respective areas.
Outlook: Iowa State had a huge win over Kansas State to end the regular season, so it can hang with tough teams. But against top 15 opponents, the Cyclones lost seven games by an average of 19.7 points. Crooks is an elite player, but she won’t be enough to carry the Cyclones to a deep run.
Strengths: Audi Crooks remains one of the best players who doesn’t get the love that she should, despite getting the SLAMU cover. Iowa State can score with anyone, averaging 77.1 points per game behind Crooks and Addy Brown. The duo owns the defensive glass, averaging 15.2 combined rebounds per game. Iowa State has the nation’s second-best defensive rebounding rate (77.4 percent).
Weaknesses: As good as Iowa State is on the defensive boards, it gets absolutely crushed on the offensive glass. Iowa State ranks No. 324 on offensive boards. It’s not the only struggle Iowa State has, hence its seeding. The Cyclones struggle mightily from 3-point range and on foul shooting, making 36 percent and 73 percent from the respective areas.
Outlook: Iowa State had a huge win over Kansas State to end the regular season, so it can hang with tough teams. But against top 15 opponents, the Cyclones lost seven games by an average of 19.7 points. Crooks is an elite player, but she won’t be enough to carry the Cyclones to a deep run.
What to know: Led by sophomores Addy Brown and Audi Crooks, Iowa State can compete with any team offensively.
Coach: Bill Fennelly, two Elite Eights
Player to watch: Audi Crooks
Princeton
Strengths: Princeton’s offense is efficient, even if it plays at a slow pace. It ranks No. 16 in field goal percentage, but its defense also has performed at a high level. Opponents score just 56.3 points on average against the Tigers, and they’ve held three different teams under 40 points.
Weaknesses: Quality of competition has long been an issue for Ivy League teams. Princeton’s key wins were over Harvard, and it lost all three games against top-40 opponents. What’s more, with Princeton playing so slow, it has to control the pace to win because it allows an average pace of 67.8 to opponents (No. 336 in the country).
Outlook: Princeton’s making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, after advancing to the second round in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. If it can control the pace and its defense shows up, it can do it again. But it’s a huge if.
Strengths: Princeton’s offense is efficient, even if it plays at a slow pace. It ranks No. 16 in field goal percentage, but its defense also has performed at a high level. Opponents score just 56.3 points on average against the Tigers, and they’ve held three different teams under 40 points.
Weaknesses: Quality of competition has long been an issue for Ivy League teams. Princeton’s key wins were over Harvard, and it lost all three games against top-40 opponents. What’s more, with Princeton playing so slow, it has to control the pace to win because it allows an average pace of 67.8 to opponents (No. 336 in the country).
Outlook: Princeton’s making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, after advancing to the second round in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. If it can control the pace and its defense shows up, it can do it again. But it’s a huge if.
Strengths: Princeton’s offense is efficient, even if it plays at a slow pace. It ranks No. 16 in field goal percentage, but its defense also has performed at a high level. Opponents score just 56.3 points on average against the Tigers, and they’ve held three different teams under 40 points.
Weaknesses: Quality of competition has long been an issue for Ivy League teams. Princeton’s key wins were over Harvard, and it lost all three games against top-40 opponents. What’s more, with Princeton playing so slow, it has to control the pace to win because it allows an average pace of 67.8 to opponents (No. 336 in the country).
Outlook: Princeton’s making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, after advancing to the second round in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. If it can control the pace and its defense shows up, it can do it again. But it’s a huge if.
What to know: Princeton’s had its highest field goal percentage (46.6 percent) since 2014-2015.
Coach: Carla Berube, two Round of 32 appearances
Player to watch: Ashley Chea
Murray State
Strengths: Buckets. Walking buckets. Shot getters. Ice in the veins. Whatever basketball term you want to throw around to describe the Racers’ offense, it’s apt. The Racers’ 87.9 points per game led the nation during the regular season, and it helps that they play at a lightning-quick pace of 78 possessions per 40 minutes. Katelyn Young, Halli Poock, Haven Ford and Ava Learn each averaged at least 14 points per game in the regular season, and Learn chipped in 9.6 boards to go along with the scoring.
Weaknesses: Remember Mike D’Antoni’s NBA teams? All gas, no brakes? That’s what Murray State is like. All offense, no defense. 72.4 points per game, and opponents shot 44.5 percent against the Racers.
Outlook: Is Murray State likely to make a run? No, they aren’t. Talent weighs out in the NCAA Tournament. But are teams aware of the Racers’ offense? Yeah, they are.
Strengths: Buckets. Walking buckets. Shot getters. Ice in the veins. Whatever basketball term you want to throw around to describe the Racers’ offense, it’s apt. The Racers’ 87.9 points per game led the nation during the regular season, and it helps that they play at a lightning-quick pace of 78 possessions per 40 minutes. Katelyn Young, Halli Poock, Haven Ford and Ava Learn each averaged at least 14 points per game in the regular season, and Learn chipped in 9.6 boards to go along with the scoring.
Weaknesses: Remember Mike D’Antoni’s NBA teams? All gas, no brakes? That’s what Murray State is like. All offense, no defense. 72.4 points per game, and opponents shot 44.5 percent against the Racers.
Outlook: Is Murray State likely to make a run? No, they aren’t. Talent weighs out in the NCAA Tournament. But are teams aware of the Racers’ offense? Yeah, they are.
Strengths: Buckets. Walking buckets. Shot getters. Ice in the veins. Whatever basketball term you want to throw around to describe the Racers’ offense, it’s apt. The Racers’ 87.9 points per game led the nation during the regular season, and it helps that they play at a lightning-quick pace of 78 possessions per 40 minutes. Katelyn Young, Halli Poock, Haven Ford and Ava Learn each averaged at least 14 points per game in the regular season, and Learn chipped in 9.6 boards to go along with the scoring.
Weaknesses: Remember Mike D’Antoni’s NBA teams? All gas, no brakes? That’s what Murray State is like. All offense, no defense. 72.4 points per game, and opponents shot 44.5 percent against the Racers.
Outlook: Is Murray State likely to make a run? No, they aren’t. Talent weighs out in the NCAA Tournament. But are teams aware of the Racers’ offense? Yeah, they are.
What to know: The nation’s highest-scoring team can trade buckets with anyone, but can it play defense?
Record: 24-7
Coach: Rechelle Turner
Player to watch: Katelyn Young
Ball State
Strengths: The Cardinals’ strong interior defense owns the glass (74.9 percent rebound rate) and protects the rim at an elite rate (11.5 percent block rate). Alex Richard and Marie Kiefer averaged more than 1.3 blocks per game during the regular season.
Weaknesses: As good as it is on the defensive glass, it still struggles extending possessions with a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, ranking in the lower-third among DI teams. Ball State also struggles from beyond the 3-point line, shooting just 31.8 percent despite attempting the 32nd most 3s in the country.
Outlook: Ball State hasn’t made the Tournament since the 2008-2009 season, when it lost in the second round. Its interior defense will help it, but unless it can be even more efficient from the field and execute 3s, the Cardinals will go home early.
Strengths: The Cardinals’ strong interior defense owns the glass (74.9 percent rebound rate) and protects the rim at an elite rate (11.5 percent block rate). Alex Richard and Marie Kiefer averaged more than 1.3 blocks per game during the regular season.
Weaknesses: As good as it is on the defensive glass, it still struggles extending possessions with a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, ranking in the lower-third among DI teams. Ball State also struggles from beyond the 3-point line, shooting just 31.8 percent despite attempting the 32nd most 3s in the country.
Outlook: Ball State hasn’t made the Tournament since the 2008-2009 season, when it lost in the second round. Its interior defense will help it, but unless it can be even more efficient from the field and execute 3s, the Cardinals will go home early.
Strengths: The Cardinals’ strong interior defense owns the glass (74.9 percent rebound rate) and protects the rim at an elite rate (11.5 percent block rate). Alex Richard and Marie Kiefer averaged more than 1.3 blocks per game during the regular season.
Weaknesses: As good as it is on the defensive glass, it still struggles extending possessions with a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, ranking in the lower-third among DI teams. Ball State also struggles from beyond the 3-point line, shooting just 31.8 percent despite attempting the 32nd most 3s in the country.
Outlook: Ball State hasn’t made the Tournament since the 2008-2009 season, when it lost in the second round. Its interior defense will help it, but unless it can be even more efficient from the field and execute 3s, the Cardinals will go home early.
What to know: Ball State channeled the early years of the Brady Sallee era, dominating the defensive boards (27.3).
Coach: Brady Sallee
Player to watch: Marie Kiefer
Green Bay
Strengths: Green Bay has a stingy defense, as it limits its fouls per game and holds opponents to 56.7 points per contest. Natalie McNeal has been rolling lately, as her midrange jumper can be effective for Green Bay.
Weaknesses: Green Bay’s offense is middle of the road and plays at a slow pace (No. 339 in the nation at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes), it can be a challenge against top-tier competition. Green Bay struggles on the boards, averaging 34 per game, which ranks in the 28th percentile.
Outlook: It was a successful first season for the Phoenix under first-year head coach Kayla Karius, but in two games against top-30 teams, they lost by a combined 69 points. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence heading into the Big Dance.
Strengths: Green Bay has a stingy defense, as it limits its fouls per game and holds opponents to 56.7 points per contest. Natalie McNeal has been rolling lately, as her midrange jumper can be effective for Green Bay.
Weaknesses: Green Bay’s offense is middle of the road and plays at a slow pace (No. 339 in the nation at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes), it can be a challenge against top-tier competition. Green Bay struggles on the boards, averaging 34 per game, which ranks in the 28th percentile.
Outlook: It was a successful first season for the Phoenix under first-year head coach Kayla Karius, but in two games against top-30 teams, they lost by a combined 69 points. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence heading into the Big Dance.
Strengths: Green Bay has a stingy defense, as it limits its fouls per game and holds opponents to 56.7 points per contest. Natalie McNeal has been rolling lately, as her midrange jumper can be effective for Green Bay.
Weaknesses: Green Bay’s offense is middle of the road and plays at a slow pace (No. 339 in the nation at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes), it can be a challenge against top-tier competition. Green Bay struggles on the boards, averaging 34 per game, which ranks in the 28th percentile.
Outlook: It was a successful first season for the Phoenix under first-year head coach Kayla Karius, but in two games against top-30 teams, they lost by a combined 69 points. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence heading into the Big Dance.
What to know: The Phoenix ended the season on a 22-game winning streak, posting their best record since 2017-2018.
Coach: Kayla Karius
Player to watch: Natalie McNealr
South Florida
Strengths: The Bulls do enough well, without doing anything especially great. Sixth-year senior Sammie Puisis leads the scoring pace for the Bulls, averaging 14.8 points per game and shooting 39.5 percent from 3.
Weaknesses: Puisis can shoot from distance, but the Bulls focus on shot attempts from inside the arc. If defenses are isolating Puisis, can someone like Vittoria Blasigh take on the scoring assignment?
Outlook: South Florida has advanced to the Round of 32 in two of the last three seasons, so it isn't impossible. But leaving the first weekend? I’d be surprised.
Strengths: The Bulls do enough well, without doing anything especially great. Sixth-year senior Sammie Puisis leads the scoring pace for the Bulls, averaging 14.8 points per game and shooting 39.5 percent from 3.
Weaknesses: Puisis can shoot from distance, but the Bulls focus on shot attempts from inside the arc. If defenses are isolating Puisis, can someone like Vittoria Blasigh take on the scoring assignment?
Outlook: South Florida has advanced to the Round of 32 in two of the last three seasons, so it isn't impossible. But leaving the first weekend? I’d be surprised.
Strengths: The Bulls do enough well, without doing anything especially great. Sixth-year senior Sammie Puisis leads the scoring pace for the Bulls, averaging 14.8 points per game and shooting 39.5 percent from 3.
Weaknesses: Puisis can shoot from distance, but the Bulls focus on shot attempts from inside the arc. If defenses are isolating Puisis, can someone like Vittoria Blasigh take on the scoring assignment?
Outlook: South Florida has advanced to the Round of 32 in two of the last three seasons, so it isn't impossible. But leaving the first weekend? I’d be surprised.
What to know: USF takes care of the ball, limits turnovers, prioritizes the right pass and crashes the glass.
Coach: Jose Fernandez, five Round of 32 appearances
Player to watch: Sammie Puisis
Fairfield
Strengths: Teams average 54.3 points per game against the Stags, and that’s thanks in part to Fairfield’s ability to control the pace. It averages 68.9 possessions per 40 minutes, and it holds opponents to 90.3 points per 100 possessions. It is super efficient, too, with a 53.7 percent effective field goal rate and shooting 46.3 percent from the field overall.
Weaknesses: Before losing its season finale against Quinnipiac, the last time that Fairfield lost was Dec. 15, 2024. The last time Fairfield lost to a ranked team was against No. 17 Richmond, when it fell 62-39 in early November. That was also the last ranked opponent that Fairfield played all season. There’s a talent disparity here.
Outlook: Fairfield is 0-5 in NCAA Tournament play. It’s way more likely that Fairfield makes that 0-6 than it does 1-5.
Strengths: Teams average 54.3 points per game against the Stags, and that’s thanks in part to Fairfield’s ability to control the pace. It averages 68.9 possessions per 40 minutes, and it holds opponents to 90.3 points per 100 possessions. It is super efficient, too, with a 53.7 percent effective field goal rate and shooting 46.3 percent from the field overall.
Weaknesses: Before losing its season finale against Quinnipiac, the last time that Fairfield lost was Dec. 15, 2024. The last time Fairfield lost to a ranked team was against No. 17 Richmond, when it fell 62-39 in early November. That was also the last ranked opponent that Fairfield played all season. There’s a talent disparity here.
Outlook: Fairfield is 0-5 in NCAA Tournament play. It’s way more likely that Fairfield makes that 0-6 than it does 1-5.
Strengths: Teams average 54.3 points per game against the Stags, and that’s thanks in part to Fairfield’s ability to control the pace. It averages 68.9 possessions per 40 minutes, and it holds opponents to 90.3 points per 100 possessions. It is super efficient, too, with a 53.7 percent effective field goal rate and shooting 46.3 percent from the field overall.
Weaknesses: Before losing its season finale against Quinnipiac, the last time that Fairfield lost was Dec. 15, 2024. The last time Fairfield lost to a ranked team was against No. 17 Richmond, when it fell 62-39 in early November. That was also the last ranked opponent that Fairfield played all season. There’s a talent disparity here.
Outlook: Fairfield is 0-5 in NCAA Tournament play. It’s way more likely that Fairfield makes that 0-6 than it does 1-5.
What to know: An elite defense (54.3 points allowed per game) that needs to dictate the pace.
Coach: Carly Thibault-DuDonis, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Kaety L’Amoreaux
Grand Canyon
Strengths: If you want a bucket, the Lopes have four players who can get one with ease. Four starters – Alyssa Durazo-Frescas, Tiara Brown, Trinity San Antonio and Laure Erikstrup – each average north of 13 points per game while shooting better than 46.8 percent.
Weaknesses: Depth is an issue. It rotates in multiple players, but outside of its starters, its offense is a non-factor. Molly Miller staggers her starters so that one will always be on the court as a primary scoring option.
Outlook: This will be Grand Canyon’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, so a competitive opening-round game is enough for the Lopes and Miller to build for the future.
Strengths: If you want a bucket, the Lopes have four players who can get one with ease. Four starters – Alyssa Durazo-Frescas, Tiara Brown, Trinity San Antonio and Laure Erikstrup – each average north of 13 points per game while shooting better than 46.8 percent.
Weaknesses: Depth is an issue. It rotates in multiple players, but outside of its starters, its offense is a non-factor. Molly Miller staggers her starters so that one will always be on the court as a primary scoring option.
Outlook: This will be Grand Canyon’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, so a competitive opening-round game is enough for the Lopes and Miller to build for the future.
Strengths: If you want a bucket, the Lopes have four players who can get one with ease. Four starters – Alyssa Durazo-Frescas, Tiara Brown, Trinity San Antonio and Laure Erikstrup – each average north of 13 points per game while shooting better than 46.8 percent.
Weaknesses: Depth is an issue. It rotates in multiple players, but outside of its starters, its offense is a non-factor. Molly Miller staggers her starters so that one will always be on the court as a primary scoring option.
Outlook: This will be Grand Canyon’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, so a competitive opening-round game is enough for the Lopes and Miller to build for the future.
What to know: The Lopes’ two regular-season losses are the fewest for the school since it became a DI program.
Coach: Molly Miller
Player to watch: Trinity San Antonio
Norfolk State
Strengths: Four players. That’s the total list of Division I players who average more steals per game than senior Diamond Johnson’s 3 per game. It’s a tenacious group as a whole, as Norfolk State has seven – yes, seven – players who average at least 1.1 steals per game. There are 120 teams that averaged fewer than seven steals per game.
Weaknesses: The Spartans can handle their own on the offensive glass, but defensively – nah. It’s a different story. Norfolk State averages just 24.2 defensive rebounds per game for a 64 percent defensive rebound rate.
Outlook: The steals, blocks and depth are there. Norfolk State can go eight-deep. It owns a three-point win over Missouri, which was ranked No. 76 at the time, but against ranked opponents (North Carolina and Alabama), it lost by a combined 53 points. There’s always next year to get the first NCAA Tournament victory.
Strengths: Four players. That’s the total list of Division I players who average more steals per game than senior Diamond Johnson’s 3 per game. It’s a tenacious group as a whole, as Norfolk State has seven – yes, seven – players who average at least 1.1 steals per game. There are 120 teams that averaged fewer than seven steals per game.
Weaknesses: The Spartans can handle their own on the offensive glass, but defensively – nah. It’s a different story. Norfolk State averages just 24.2 defensive rebounds per game for a 64 percent defensive rebound rate.
Outlook: The steals, blocks and depth are there. Norfolk State can go eight-deep. It owns a three-point win over Missouri, which was ranked No. 76 at the time, but against ranked opponents (North Carolina and Alabama), it lost by a combined 53 points. There’s always next year to get the first NCAA Tournament victory.
Strengths: Four players. That’s the total list of Division I players who average more steals per game than senior Diamond Johnson’s 3 per game. It’s a tenacious group as a whole, as Norfolk State has seven – yes, seven – players who average at least 1.1 steals per game. There are 120 teams that averaged fewer than seven steals per game.
Weaknesses: The Spartans can handle their own on the offensive glass, but defensively – nah. It’s a different story. Norfolk State averages just 24.2 defensive rebounds per game for a 64 percent defensive rebound rate.
Outlook: The steals, blocks and depth are there. Norfolk State can go eight-deep. It owns a three-point win over Missouri, which was ranked No. 76 at the time, but against ranked opponents (North Carolina and Alabama), it lost by a combined 53 points. There’s always next year to get the first NCAA Tournament victory.
What to know: Montana State’s three losses are the fewest in school history, dating back to 1981.
Coach: Tricia Bader Binford, two first-round appearances
Player to watch: Taylee Chirrick
Montana State
Strengths: The Bobcats’ best season is happening behind an efficient offense and a swarming defense that makes up for its size by being active in the passing lanes. They rank first nationally with 14.2 steals per game. Freshman Taylee Chirrick averages 3.4 steals per game, making her one of only eight players to average as many.
Weaknesses: Montana State just can’t compete on the boards. It averages 22.4 defensive rebounds per game, which is in the 13th percentile. For a team that attempts a ton of 3s and not as many shots inside the arc, it’s walking a fine line with relying on deep shots to overcome its rebounding deficiencies.
Outlook: It’s been a great season for Montana State. But talent disparity will show itself throughout the tournament, and unfortunately for Montana State fans, it’ll be a rough experience with a first-round exit.
Strengths: The Bobcats’ best season is happening behind an efficient offense and a swarming defense that makes up for its size by being active in the passing lanes. They rank first nationally with 14.2 steals per game. Freshman Taylee Chirrick averages 3.4 steals per game, making her one of only eight players to average as many.
Weaknesses: Montana State just can’t compete on the boards. It averages 22.4 defensive rebounds per game, which is in the 13th percentile. For a team that attempts a ton of 3s and not as many shots inside the arc, it’s walking a fine line with relying on deep shots to overcome its rebounding deficiencies.
Outlook: It’s been a great season for Montana State. But talent disparity will show itself throughout the tournament, and unfortunately for Montana State fans, it’ll be a rough experience with a first-round exit.
Strengths: The Bobcats’ best season is happening behind an efficient offense and a swarming defense that makes up for its size by being active in the passing lanes. They rank first nationally with 14.2 steals per game. Freshman Taylee Chirrick averages 3.4 steals per game, making her one of only eight players to average as many.
Weaknesses: Montana State just can’t compete on the boards. It averages 22.4 defensive rebounds per game, which is in the 13th percentile. For a team that attempts a ton of 3s and not as many shots inside the arc, it’s walking a fine line with relying on deep shots to overcome its rebounding deficiencies.
Outlook: It’s been a great season for Montana State. But talent disparity will show itself throughout the tournament, and unfortunately for Montana State fans, it’ll be a rough experience with a first-round exit.
What to know: Montana State’s three losses are the fewest in school history, dating back to 1981.
Coach: Tricia Bader Binford, two first-round appearances
Player to watch: Taylee Chirrick
Liberty
Strengths: The Lady Flames ended the season on an 11-game winning streak, culminating with a championship title over Middle Tennessee. Liberty has used the same starting lineup in 28 of its 29 games this year.
Weaknesses: Liberty struggles to take care of the ball on offense, averaging 17.2 turnovers per game. Defensively, it has only an 18.7 percent turnover rate, ranking in the 43rd percentile. Offenses are able to dominate on the interior against Liberty, which is going to be a big hurdle in the Tournament for a potential run.
Outlook: Liberty is playing as well as it could possibly hope to, winning two of its previous three games each by 27 points. The problem? Five of the six losses the program had this year came against top-100 teams. All but one of those losses (Toledo) were by at least 16 points.
Strengths: The Lady Flames ended the season on an 11-game winning streak, culminating with a championship title over Middle Tennessee. Liberty has used the same starting lineup in 28 of its 29 games this year.
Weaknesses: Liberty struggles to take care of the ball on offense, averaging 17.2 turnovers per game. Defensively, it has only an 18.7 percent turnover rate, ranking in the 43rd percentile. Offenses are able to dominate on the interior against Liberty, which is going to be a big hurdle in the Tournament for a potential run.
Outlook: Liberty is playing as well as it could possibly hope to, winning two of its previous three games each by 27 points. The problem? Five of the six losses the program had this year came against top-100 teams. All but one of those losses (Toledo) were by at least 16 points.
Strengths: The Lady Flames ended the season on an 11-game winning streak, culminating with a championship title over Middle Tennessee. Liberty has used the same starting lineup in 28 of its 29 games this year.
Weaknesses: Liberty struggles to take care of the ball on offense, averaging 17.2 turnovers per game. Defensively, it has only an 18.7 percent turnover rate, ranking in the 43rd percentile. Offenses are able to dominate on the interior against Liberty, which is going to be a big hurdle in the Tournament for a potential run.
Outlook: Liberty is playing as well as it could possibly hope to, winning two of its previous three games each by 27 points. The problem? Five of the six losses the program had this year came against top-100 teams. All but one of those losses (Toledo) were by at least 16 points.
What to know: The Lady Flames’ 36.2 percent 3-point rate is their highest mark in school history.
Coach: Carey Green, 13 tournament bids, one Sweet 16
Player to watch: Bella Smuda
San Diego State
Strengths: The Aztecs don’t really thrive in any one area, but they put an emphasis on protecting the ball and converting inside of the arc. They have made more 2-pointers (647) than they have attempted 3-pointers (478) on the season.
Weaknesses: The concern with the Aztecs is how they will perform against teams that push the pace, given how slowly they play. They aren’t a bad 3-point shooting team, but it doesn’t fit their preferred style. They attempted more than 20 3s in a game four times this season, with three of those resulting in losses..
Outlook: San Diego State was a No. 4 seed in the Mountain West tournament, and it went on a nice run to take down UNLV and Wyoming — the latter in triple-overtime fashion — to win the tournament. Those two wins would be its best of the regular season, just to give an idea of its schedule.
Strengths: The Aztecs don’t really thrive in any one area, but they put an emphasis on protecting the ball and converting inside of the arc. They have made more 2-pointers (647) than they have attempted 3-pointers (478) on the season.
Weaknesses: The concern with the Aztecs is how they will perform against teams that push the pace, given how slowly they play. They aren’t a bad 3-point shooting team, but it doesn’t fit their preferred style. They attempted more than 20 3s in a game four times this season, with three of those resulting in losses..
Outlook: San Diego State was a No. 4 seed in the Mountain West tournament, and it went on a nice run to take down UNLV and Wyoming — the latter in triple-overtime fashion — to win the tournament. Those two wins would be its best of the regular season, just to give an idea of its schedule.
Strengths: The Aztecs don’t really thrive in any one area, but they put an emphasis on protecting the ball and converting inside of the arc. They have made more 2-pointers (647) than they have attempted 3-pointers (478) on the season.
Weaknesses: The concern with the Aztecs is how they will perform against teams that push the pace, given how slowly they play. They aren’t a bad 3-point shooting team, but it doesn’t fit their preferred style. They attempted more than 20 3s in a game four times this season, with three of those resulting in losses..
Outlook: San Diego State was a No. 4 seed in the Mountain West tournament, and it went on a nice run to take down UNLV and Wyoming — the latter in triple-overtime fashion — to win the tournament. Those two wins would be its best of the regular season, just to give an idea of its schedule.
What to know: The Aztecs have the fewest losses since the 2012-2013 season.
Coach: Stacie Terry-Hutson
Player to watch: Kim Villalobos
Oregon State
Strengths: The Beavers do a great job defensively, especially when it comes to their interior defense. They average 3.5 blocks per game, and unlike many teams who rank high in blocks, Oregon State does so without committing many fouls. It also owns the defensive glass, pulling in just shy of 29 per game.
Weaknesses: It’s a slow-paced team that doesn’t have an offense to contend with other programs that it’ll see in the tournament. Oregon State struggles to hit shots from deep, shooting just 29.2 percent on 3s.
Outlook: Oregon State shouldn’t be here. If this was a projection for the entire season, finishing below .500 seemed like the likeliest outcome. The program was decimated after it moved to the West Coast Conference, and it lost its first five games and eight of its first 11. Oregon State doesn’t have the players to make a run or even get out of the first weekend, but this is still the biggest accomplishment of Scott Rueck’s tenure at the school.
Strengths: The Beavers do a great job defensively, especially when it comes to their interior defense. They average 3.5 blocks per game, and unlike many teams who rank high in blocks, Oregon State does so without committing many fouls. It also owns the defensive glass, pulling in just shy of 29 per game.
Weaknesses: It’s a slow-paced team that doesn’t have an offense to contend with other programs that it’ll see in the tournament. Oregon State struggles to hit shots from deep, shooting just 29.2 percent on 3s.
Outlook: Oregon State shouldn’t be here. If this was a projection for the entire season, finishing below .500 seemed like the likeliest outcome. The program was decimated after it moved to the West Coast Conference, and it lost its first five games and eight of its first 11. Oregon State doesn’t have the players to make a run or even get out of the first weekend, but this is still the biggest accomplishment of Scott Rueck’s tenure at the school.
Strengths: The Beavers do a great job defensively, especially when it comes to their interior defense. They average 3.5 blocks per game, and unlike many teams who rank high in blocks, Oregon State does so without committing many fouls. It also owns the defensive glass, pulling in just shy of 29 per game.
Weaknesses: It’s a slow-paced team that doesn’t have an offense to contend with other programs that it’ll see in the tournament. Oregon State struggles to hit shots from deep, shooting just 29.2 percent on 3s.
Outlook: Oregon State shouldn’t be here. If this was a projection for the entire season, finishing below .500 seemed like the likeliest outcome. The program was decimated after it moved to the West Coast Conference, and it lost its first five games and eight of its first 11. Oregon State doesn’t have the players to make a run or even get out of the first weekend, but this is still the biggest accomplishment of Scott Rueck’s tenure at the school.
What to know: An improbable NCAA Tournament appearance after the program was gutted from the Pac-12 dissolution..
Coach: Scott Rueck, one Final Four
Player to watch: Catarina Ferreira
Stephen F. Austin
Strengths: The Ladyjacks have an explosive offense that runs the opponent up and down the court. They rank ninth nationally in points per scoring attempt, and they do it all efficiently and effectively. Five players average double-figures in scoring, as the Ladyjacks play seven- or eight-deep most games. Keep an eye on Ashlyn Traylor-Walker, who averages 2.3 steals per game.
Weaknesses: SFA’s scoring is efficient, but that doesn’t mean that it always takes care of the ball. It averages 17.9 turnovers per game, which can come as a result of playing at such a quick pace.
Outlook: SFA made the tournament every year from 1987 to 2002. While it’s not exactly the same, this will be its third appearance in the last five years. But as such a low seed, it would be shocking for it to escape its opening game.
Strengths: The Ladyjacks have an explosive offense that runs the opponent up and down the court. They rank ninth nationally in points per scoring attempt, and they do it all efficiently and effectively. Five players average double-figures in scoring, as the Ladyjacks play seven- or eight-deep most games. Keep an eye on Ashlyn Traylor-Walker, who averages 2.3 steals per game.
Weaknesses: SFA’s scoring is efficient, but that doesn’t mean that it always takes care of the ball. It averages 17.9 turnovers per game, which can come as a result of playing at such a quick pace.
Outlook: SFA made the tournament every year from 1987 to 2002. While it’s not exactly the same, this will be its third appearance in the last five years. But as such a low seed, it would be shocking for it to escape its opening game.
Strengths: The Ladyjacks have an explosive offense that runs the opponent up and down the court. They rank ninth nationally in points per scoring attempt, and they do it all efficiently and effectively. Five players average double-figures in scoring, as the Ladyjacks play seven- or eight-deep most games. Keep an eye on Ashlyn Traylor-Walker, who averages 2.3 steals per game.
Weaknesses: SFA’s scoring is efficient, but that doesn’t mean that it always takes care of the ball. It averages 17.9 turnovers per game, which can come as a result of playing at such a quick pace.
Outlook: SFA made the tournament every year from 1987 to 2002. While it’s not exactly the same, this will be its third appearance in the last five years. But as such a low seed, it would be shocking for it to escape its opening game.
What to know: Up-tempo team that plays at a quick offensive pace but struggles to care care of the basketball.
Coach: Leonard Bishop
Player to watch: Ashlyn Traylor-Walker
Florida Gulf Coast
Strengths: Under Lyles, the Eagles went 30-1. It helps when a framework is in place like the one that Smesko had for Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles prioritize taking care of the ball, finding the most efficient shot and controlling the pace.
Weaknesses: The Eagles don’t have a strong interior presence. FGCU averages just 1.9 blocks per game, and because of that, opponents shoot just 41.2 percent on 2-pointers.
Outlook: Losing the only coach in school history is hard to overcome, but the Eagles did it. That’s enough of a win as it’s unlikely they’ll get out of the first round.
Strengths: Under Lyles, the Eagles went 30-1. It helps when a framework is in place like the one that Smesko had for Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles prioritize taking care of the ball, finding the most efficient shot and controlling the pace.
Weaknesses: The Eagles don’t have a strong interior presence. FGCU averages just 1.9 blocks per game, and because of that, opponents shoot just 41.2 percent on 2-pointers.
Outlook: Losing the only coach in school history is hard to overcome, but the Eagles did it. That’s enough of a win as it’s unlikely they’ll get out of the first round.
Strengths: Under Lyles, the Eagles went 30-1. It helps when a framework is in place like the one that Smesko had for Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles prioritize taking care of the ball, finding the most efficient shot and controlling the pace.
Weaknesses: The Eagles don’t have a strong interior presence. FGCU averages just 1.9 blocks per game, and because of that, opponents shoot just 41.2 percent on 2-pointers.
Outlook: Losing the only coach in school history is hard to overcome, but the Eagles did it. That’s enough of a win as it’s unlikely they’ll get out of the first round.
What to know: Long-time head coach Karl Smesko left for the WNBA, but the Eagles didn’t miss a beat.
Coach: Chelsea Lyles
Player to watch: Lauren Taylor
Vermont
Strengths: Defensive disruptors are always fun to watch, and that’s what Bella Vito is. She averages 2.1 steals per game, trading offensive output for her standout defense. Her effort leads Vermont in holding opponents to 51.7 points per game, ranking third nationally..
Weaknesses: There’s no rebounding presence to be found. Vermont averages 30.9 rebounds per game — the 15th-worst mark nationally.
Outlook: The second-half turnaround was impressive, but it’s also worth noting that the highest-ranked team Vermont played during that stretch was No. 92 Albany. After that, you ask? No. 171 Maine.
Strengths: Defensive disruptors are always fun to watch, and that’s what Bella Vito is. She averages 2.1 steals per game, trading offensive output for her standout defense. Her effort leads Vermont in holding opponents to 51.7 points per game, ranking third nationally..
Weaknesses: There’s no rebounding presence to be found. Vermont averages 30.9 rebounds per game — the 15th-worst mark nationally.
Outlook: The second-half turnaround was impressive, but it’s also worth noting that the highest-ranked team Vermont played during that stretch was No. 92 Albany. After that, you ask? No. 171 Maine.
Strengths: Defensive disruptors are always fun to watch, and that’s what Bella Vito is. She averages 2.1 steals per game, trading offensive output for her standout defense. Her effort leads Vermont in holding opponents to 51.7 points per game, ranking third nationally..
Weaknesses: There’s no rebounding presence to be found. Vermont averages 30.9 rebounds per game — the 15th-worst mark nationally.
Outlook: The second-half turnaround was impressive, but it’s also worth noting that the highest-ranked team Vermont played during that stretch was No. 92 Albany. After that, you ask? No. 171 Maine.
What to know: Nine of its losses came before Jan. 2. It turned the corner in the second half.
Coach: Alisa Kresge
Players to watch: Bellas Vito
Lehigh
Strengths: Fifth-year senior Maddie Albrecth paces the Mountain Hawks, averaging 15.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.6 STOCKs per game. Lehigh has a stingy defense, but it makes teams pay for sending them to the free-throw line, where it shoots 80.5 percent (second nationally).
Weaknesses: Lehigh is really, really bad on the glass. It averages the 17th-fewest offensive rebounds per game (8.2), and overall, it ranks in the 8th percentile in total rebounds per game (31.6).
Outlook: Win or lose, it’s likely to be a blowout. Eighteen of Lehigh’s last 19 games have been decided by double-digits. Given that trend, expect an early exit from the Mountain Hawks.
Strengths: Fifth-year senior Maddie Albrecth paces the Mountain Hawks, averaging 15.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.6 STOCKs per game. Lehigh has a stingy defense, but it makes teams pay for sending them to the free-throw line, where it shoots 80.5 percent (second nationally).
Weaknesses: Lehigh is really, really bad on the glass. It averages the 17th-fewest offensive rebounds per game (8.2), and overall, it ranks in the 8th percentile in total rebounds per game (31.6).
Outlook: Win or lose, it’s likely to be a blowout. Eighteen of Lehigh’s last 19 games have been decided by double-digits. Given that trend, expect an early exit from the Mountain Hawks.
Strengths: Fifth-year senior Maddie Albrecth paces the Mountain Hawks, averaging 15.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.6 STOCKs per game. Lehigh has a stingy defense, but it makes teams pay for sending them to the free-throw line, where it shoots 80.5 percent (second nationally).
Weaknesses: Lehigh is really, really bad on the glass. It averages the 17th-fewest offensive rebounds per game (8.2), and overall, it ranks in the 8th percentile in total rebounds per game (31.6).
Outlook: Win or lose, it’s likely to be a blowout. Eighteen of Lehigh’s last 19 games have been decided by double-digits. Given that trend, expect an early exit from the Mountain Hawks.
What to know: It’s Lehigh’s fifth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, as the program searches for its first win.
Coach: Addie Micir
Player to watch: Maddie Albrecht
Fairleigh Dickinson
Strengths: FDU has consistency throughout its lineup, as all five starters have started every game. Freshman Ava Renninger leads the charge with 14 points and shooting 34.9 percent from deep. The Knights limit turnovers on offense and fouls on defense, holding opponents under 55 points on average.
Weaknesses: The Knights play at the fifth-slowest pace in the country, and they rank poorly at rim protecting and generating steals, coming in at the second percentile and 10th percentile, respectively.
Outlook: If you make it to the Big Dance for the first time, you celebrate. UConn defeated FDU by 44 in November, and a 40-point loss seems about right for FDU in the first round this time, too.
Strengths: FDU has consistency throughout its lineup, as all five starters have started every game. Freshman Ava Renninger leads the charge with 14 points and shooting 34.9 percent from deep. The Knights limit turnovers on offense and fouls on defense, holding opponents under 55 points on average.
Weaknesses: The Knights play at the fifth-slowest pace in the country, and they rank poorly at rim protecting and generating steals, coming in at the second percentile and 10th percentile, respectively.
Outlook: If you make it to the Big Dance for the first time, you celebrate. UConn defeated FDU by 44 in November, and a 40-point loss seems about right for FDU in the first round this time, too.
Strengths: FDU has consistency throughout its lineup, as all five starters have started every game. Freshman Ava Renninger leads the charge with 14 points and shooting 34.9 percent from deep. The Knights limit turnovers on offense and fouls on defense, holding opponents under 55 points on average.
Weaknesses: The Knights play at the fifth-slowest pace in the country, and they rank poorly at rim protecting and generating steals, coming in at the second percentile and 10th percentile, respectively.
Outlook: If you make it to the Big Dance for the first time, you celebrate. UConn defeated FDU by 44 in November, and a 40-point loss seems about right for FDU in the first round this time, too.
What to know: Fairleigh Dickinson has been around since 1981. This is its first time dancing.
Coach: Stephanie Gaitley, two first-round appearances
Player to watch: Tunisia Brown
Arkansas State
Strengths: After a drop-off in pace last year, the Red Wolves got back to what makes them click. The offense plays at a break-neck speed, averaging 76 possessions per 40 minutes and is one of the country’s best 3-point shooting teams — at least by volume. The Red Wolves have attempted more 3s (974) than any team, and they have made the second-most 3s (316) in the country. For comparison, six teams didn’t even attempt 316 3-pointers this year.
Weaknesses: Notice how we pointed out the volume of shooting and not necessarily the percentage. As a team, Arkansas State shoots 38.6 percent from the field.
Outlook: Is Arkansas State going to advance past the opening game? No, it won’t. Is it going to be really fun to watch it launch 3 after 3 in hopes of an upset? Yes, it will.
Strengths: After a drop-off in pace last year, the Red Wolves got back to what makes them click. The offense plays at a break-neck speed, averaging 76 possessions per 40 minutes and is one of the country’s best 3-point shooting teams — at least by volume. The Red Wolves have attempted more 3s (974) than any team, and they have made the second-most 3s (316) in the country. For comparison, six teams didn’t even attempt 316 3-pointers this year.
Weaknesses: Notice how we pointed out the volume of shooting and not necessarily the percentage. As a team, Arkansas State shoots 38.6 percent from the field.
Outlook: Is Arkansas State going to advance past the opening game? No, it won’t. Is it going to be really fun to watch it launch 3 after 3 in hopes of an upset? Yes, it will.
Strengths: After a drop-off in pace last year, the Red Wolves got back to what makes them click. The offense plays at a break-neck speed, averaging 76 possessions per 40 minutes and is one of the country’s best 3-point shooting teams — at least by volume. The Red Wolves have attempted more 3s (974) than any team, and they have made the second-most 3s (316) in the country. For comparison, six teams didn’t even attempt 316 3-pointers this year.
Weaknesses: Notice how we pointed out the volume of shooting and not necessarily the percentage. As a team, Arkansas State shoots 38.6 percent from the field.
Outlook: Is Arkansas State going to advance past the opening game? No, it won’t. Is it going to be really fun to watch it launch 3 after 3 in hopes of an upset? Yes, it will.
What to know: Arkansas State, a Sun Belt member since 1991, is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Coach: Destinee Rogers
Player to watch: Zyion Shannon
UC San Diego
Strengths: UC San Diego is generates a lot of turnovers on defense by being active in the passing lanes. The Tritons have a 13.3 steal rate, as two different players — Sumayah Sugapong and Parker Montgomery — average more than two steals per game.
Weaknesses: This is not a good offense. Despite the pedestrian 70.3 pace they play at, the Tritons are a high-volume offense, but that volume doesn’t translate to efficiency. From inside the arc, they shoot 42.2 percent, and they shoot 29.4 percent on 3-pointers, good for a 42.8 effective shooting percentage.
Outlook: The program has been around for five years, and this is its first season being eligible for the NCAA Tournament. This is its first winning season, and it took a conference tournament run to reach this point. Celebrate this, UC San Diego fans. The NCAA Tournament outcome doesn’t matter.
Strengths: UC San Diego is generates a lot of turnovers on defense by being active in the passing lanes. The Tritons have a 13.3 steal rate, as two different players — Sumayah Sugapong and Parker Montgomery — average more than two steals per game.
Weaknesses: This is not a good offense. Despite the pedestrian 70.3 pace they play at, the Tritons are a high-volume offense, but that volume doesn’t translate to efficiency. From inside the arc, they shoot 42.2 percent, and they shoot 29.4 percent on 3-pointers, good for a 42.8 effective shooting percentage.
Outlook: The program has been around for five years, and this is its first season being eligible for the NCAA Tournament. This is its first winning season, and it took a conference tournament run to reach this point. Celebrate this, UC San Diego fans. The NCAA Tournament outcome doesn’t matter.
Strengths: UC San Diego is generates a lot of turnovers on defense by being active in the passing lanes. The Tritons have a 13.3 steal rate, as two different players — Sumayah Sugapong and Parker Montgomery — average more than two steals per game.
Weaknesses: This is not a good offense. Despite the pedestrian 70.3 pace they play at, the Tritons are a high-volume offense, but that volume doesn’t translate to efficiency. From inside the arc, they shoot 42.2 percent, and they shoot 29.4 percent on 3-pointers, good for a 42.8 effective shooting percentage.
Outlook: The program has been around for five years, and this is its first season being eligible for the NCAA Tournament. This is its first winning season, and it took a conference tournament run to reach this point. Celebrate this, UC San Diego fans. The NCAA Tournament outcome doesn’t matter.
What to know: An upset win over Hawaii in the Big West Tournament paved the way for the Tritons’ first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Coach: Heidi VanDerveer
Player to watch: Sumayah Sugapong
Southern
Strengths: Southern has a suffocating defense that forces opponents into bad shots. Teams shoot 39.3 percent against it, including 28.3 percent from 3.
Weaknesses: It’s a good thing that Southern has a good defense, because its offense struggles and struggles often. It ranks No. 338 in the nation in field goal percentage (35.9 percent), and while it is good defensively, the same can’t be said about its job on the defensive boards. The Jaguars rank No. 359 of 362 teams in defensive rebounds per game (20.7).
Outlook: Southern overcame a brutal start to the season, where it lost 12 of its first 13 games — 10 of which were against teams in the top 80 in the country. The talent disparity was evident in those games, and its only close losses — eight points total — came against two teams ranked outside of the top 300. That’s not a coincidence.
Strengths: Southern has a suffocating defense that forces opponents into bad shots. Teams shoot 39.3 percent against it, including 28.3 percent from 3.
Weaknesses: It’s a good thing that Southern has a good defense, because its offense struggles and struggles often. It ranks No. 338 in the nation in field goal percentage (35.9 percent), and while it is good defensively, the same can’t be said about its job on the defensive boards. The Jaguars rank No. 359 of 362 teams in defensive rebounds per game (20.7).
Outlook: Southern overcame a brutal start to the season, where it lost 12 of its first 13 games — 10 of which were against teams in the top 80 in the country. The talent disparity was evident in those games, and its only close losses — eight points total — came against two teams ranked outside of the top 300. That’s not a coincidence.
Strengths: Southern has a suffocating defense that forces opponents into bad shots. Teams shoot 39.3 percent against it, including 28.3 percent from 3.
Weaknesses: It’s a good thing that Southern has a good defense, because its offense struggles and struggles often. It ranks No. 338 in the nation in field goal percentage (35.9 percent), and while it is good defensively, the same can’t be said about its job on the defensive boards. The Jaguars rank No. 359 of 362 teams in defensive rebounds per game (20.7).
Outlook: Southern overcame a brutal start to the season, where it lost 12 of its first 13 games — 10 of which were against teams in the top 80 in the country. The talent disparity was evident in those games, and its only close losses — eight points total — came against two teams ranked outside of the top 300. That’s not a coincidence.
What to know: The Jaguars’ 20-win season is the eighth time the school has reached that mark in 44 seasons.
Coach: Carlos Funchess
Player to watch: Aniya Gourdine
Tennessee Tech
Strengths: The Golden Eagles are top-heavy, featuring a seven-player rotation, with six players averaging 24 minutes or more per game. The results are there, as the starters average double-figures in scoring and shoot better than 36 percent on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: Depth will be an issue for Tennessee Tech, especially as its starters get into foul trouble. Freshman Chloe Larry has been fantastic, but she’ll be taking on a huge role in her first taste of March basketball.
Outlook: From 3, the Golden Eagles shoot 36.4 percent, but in four of their five losses, they shot only 31.8 percent, 21.1 percent, 18.8 percent and 10 percent from behind the arc. It’s a risky makeup for a team hoping for an opening-round win.
Strengths: The Golden Eagles are top-heavy, featuring a seven-player rotation, with six players averaging 24 minutes or more per game. The results are there, as the starters average double-figures in scoring and shoot better than 36 percent on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: Depth will be an issue for Tennessee Tech, especially as its starters get into foul trouble. Freshman Chloe Larry has been fantastic, but she’ll be taking on a huge role in her first taste of March basketball.
Outlook: From 3, the Golden Eagles shoot 36.4 percent, but in four of their five losses, they shot only 31.8 percent, 21.1 percent, 18.8 percent and 10 percent from behind the arc. It’s a risky makeup for a team hoping for an opening-round win.
Strengths: The Golden Eagles are top-heavy, featuring a seven-player rotation, with six players averaging 24 minutes or more per game. The results are there, as the starters average double-figures in scoring and shoot better than 36 percent on 3-pointers.
Weaknesses: Depth will be an issue for Tennessee Tech, especially as its starters get into foul trouble. Freshman Chloe Larry has been fantastic, but she’ll be taking on a huge role in her first taste of March basketball.
Outlook: From 3, the Golden Eagles shoot 36.4 percent, but in four of their five losses, they shot only 31.8 percent, 21.1 percent, 18.8 percent and 10 percent from behind the arc. It’s a risky makeup for a team hoping for an opening-round win.
What to know: Tennessee Tech matched its best record in school history from back in 1989-1990.
Coach: Kim Rosamond, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Anna Walker
High Point
Strengths: All five starters for the Panthers average at least 9.6 points per game, and Jaleesa Lawrence (2.0) and Aaliyah Collins (2.6) lead a team that’s active defensively at generating turnovers.
Weaknesses: Like many smaller programs, High Point struggles on the glass — both offensively and defensively. Lawrence, a transfer from Eastern Washington, and Navaeh Zavala are the only players who consistently grab boards.
Outlook: This is the second NCAA Tournament appearance for High Point, after losing to UConn 102-59 in 2021. The showing may not be that bad this time around, but a loss is still a loss.
Strengths: All five starters for the Panthers average at least 9.6 points per game, and Jaleesa Lawrence (2.0) and Aaliyah Collins (2.6) lead a team that’s active defensively at generating turnovers.
Weaknesses: Like many smaller programs, High Point struggles on the glass — both offensively and defensively. Lawrence, a transfer from Eastern Washington, and Navaeh Zavala are the only players who consistently grab boards.
Outlook: This is the second NCAA Tournament appearance for High Point, after losing to UConn 102-59 in 2021. The showing may not be that bad this time around, but a loss is still a loss.
Strengths: All five starters for the Panthers average at least 9.6 points per game, and Jaleesa Lawrence (2.0) and Aaliyah Collins (2.6) lead a team that’s active defensively at generating turnovers.
Weaknesses: Like many smaller programs, High Point struggles on the glass — both offensively and defensively. Lawrence, a transfer from Eastern Washington, and Navaeh Zavala are the only players who consistently grab boards.
Outlook: This is the second NCAA Tournament appearance for High Point, after losing to UConn 102-59 in 2021. The showing may not be that bad this time around, but a loss is still a loss.
What to know: A big mid-season turnaround after starting the season losing eight of its first 11 games.
Coach: Chelsea Banbury, one first-round appearance
Player to watch: Jaleesa Lawrence
William & Mary
Strengths: So, when a team finishes three games under .500 and makes the NCAA Tournament, it’s hard to find a lot to be optimistic about. One thing that it does well is playing an unselfish style of ball, finishing in the 88th percentile in assisted shot rate.
Weaknesses: There are a lot of minuses with this team. If this were the newspaper, I’d ask how many inches I’m allotted for this breakdown. We’ll point out the 3-point shooting, as it ranks in the 23rd percentile at a 28.3 percent conversion rate.
Outlook: It’s the school’s first NCAA Tournament ever. Just let them have this enjoyment.
Strengths: So, when a team finishes three games under .500 and makes the NCAA Tournament, it’s hard to find a lot to be optimistic about. One thing that it does well is playing an unselfish style of ball, finishing in the 88th percentile in assisted shot rate.
Weaknesses: There are a lot of minuses with this team. If this were the newspaper, I’d ask how many inches I’m allotted for this breakdown. We’ll point out the 3-point shooting, as it ranks in the 23rd percentile at a 28.3 percent conversion rate.
Outlook: It’s the school’s first NCAA Tournament ever. Just let them have this enjoyment.
Strengths: So, when a team finishes three games under .500 and makes the NCAA Tournament, it’s hard to find a lot to be optimistic about. One thing that it does well is playing an unselfish style of ball, finishing in the 88th percentile in assisted shot rate.
Weaknesses: There are a lot of minuses with this team. If this were the newspaper, I’d ask how many inches I’m allotted for this breakdown. We’ll point out the 3-point shooting, as it ranks in the 23rd percentile at a 28.3 percent conversion rate.
Outlook: It’s the school’s first NCAA Tournament ever. Just let them have this enjoyment.
What to know:William & Mary is heading to the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever (men’s or women’s basketball).
Coach: Erin Dickerson
Player to watch: Bellas Nascimento
UNC Greensboro
Strengths: Defense is the name of the game for the Spartans, as they have the ninth-best scoring defense in the nation. The Spartans are exceptional at limiting turnovers, averaging just 13.9 per game.
Weaknesses: It’s a good thing that the defense is elite, because the UNC Greensboro’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. It plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the country, and it averages just 61.3 points per game.
Outlook: The Spartans haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1997-1998, so making it is a success. They’ve only played two games against top 100 opponents, losing by a combined 32 points. Defense can win championships, but it needs some help from the offense. The Spartans are still looking for that part of their identity.
Strengths: Defense is the name of the game for the Spartans, as they have the ninth-best scoring defense in the nation. The Spartans are exceptional at limiting turnovers, averaging just 13.9 per game.
Weaknesses: It’s a good thing that the defense is elite, because the UNC Greensboro’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. It plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the country, and it averages just 61.3 points per game.
Outlook: The Spartans haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1997-1998, so making it is a success. They’ve only played two games against top 100 opponents, losing by a combined 32 points. Defense can win championships, but it needs some help from the offense. The Spartans are still looking for that part of their identity.
Strengths: Defense is the name of the game for the Spartans, as they have the ninth-best scoring defense in the nation. The Spartans are exceptional at limiting turnovers, averaging just 13.9 per game.
Weaknesses: It’s a good thing that the defense is elite, because the UNC Greensboro’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. It plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the country, and it averages just 61.3 points per game.
Outlook: The Spartans haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1997-1998, so making it is a success. They’ve only played two games against top 100 opponents, losing by a combined 32 points. Defense can win championships, but it needs some help from the offense. The Spartans are still looking for that part of their identity.
What to know: UNC Greensboro’s six losses are tied for the fewest in school history, dating back to 1991-1992.
Coach: Trina Patterson
Player to watch: Jayde Gamble
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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