2024 Women’s March Madness bracket picks: Why Chantel Jennings picked UCLA to win it all
You can print your bracket here and play along. Here’s my full bracket and early thoughts on what should be a fantastic road to the Final Four.
Spokane 1
The path is paved, UCLA. It’s yours for the taking
The committee is supposed to give the least difficult Final Four road to the No. 1 overall seed, and UCLA got just that. The Bruins’ biggest weapon is 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts and while there are some particular matchups (both against her and ones that spread the floor) that could challenge UCLA, the Bruins won’t be seeing any of those before Tampa.
Even in the Elite Eight — which many coaches consider to be the toughest hurdle of March Madness — UCLA would face third-seeded LSU, a team that has a dominant rebounder in Aneesah Morrow, but not exactly a match for Betts’ all-around game. The best option the Tigers have to go toe-to-toe with Betts (in terms of her height) is 6-6 sophomore Aalyah Del Rosario, but the former top-10 recruit has only averaged six minutes a game this season and wouldn’t be able to hang with Betts on either end of the floor.
Does this pick give me the tiniest bit of the ick? Yes, yes it does. Do I still have flashbacks to sitting courtside in Albany last season and watching as the Bruins seemingly refuse to get the ball into Betts against LSU? You betcha. (Spoiler: UCLA lost.) And yet, here we are.
It’s official, your Bruins are THE No. 1️⃣ seed! 🤩#GoBruinspic.twitter.com/0aiRC0OjoU
— UCLA Women’s Basketball (@UCLAWBB) March 17, 2025
This is the most talented roster UCLA coach Cori Close has ever had. The Bruins have advanced to the Elite Eight twice (most recently in 2018), but never past it. This is the year the Bruins’ fate changes. Not only do I think UCLA makes it to the Final Four, I think they ride Betts’ interior dominance all the way to the ’ship, giving UCLA women’s basketball its first national title.
Is Kim Mulkey playing mind games? Or is LSU in trouble?
I would not put it past Mulkey to ensure that the broadcast audience that tuned in to watch ESPN’s selection show saw Flau’jae Johnson and Morrow — two of the Tiger’s big three — sitting in the middle of the team, both clad in walking boots. In a post-selection media availability, Mulkey said they’re both good to go.
But did that initial image make me wonder about LSU’s path? Sure did. That said, I think Johnson, Morrow and Mikayla Williams are going to be enough for the Tigers to advance to the Elite Eight. Morrow, an absolute rebounding machine, won’t see the kind of challenge that could best her until Betts in Spokane. As active as Morrow can be on the glass, ultimately, the Bruins would have the upper hand in that battle.
Why not us?! pic.twitter.com/GhwcSD5B4s
— LSU Women’s Basketball (@LSUwbkb) March 17, 2025
The Ivies did it. A+, teams
Three teams into the NCAA Tournament. Pretty wild when you consider how few conferences — outside of the power conferences — have ever accomplished this. The most recent non-power conference (outside of a conference with UConn in it) to land more than two teams in the Big Dance was the American in 2018. But now, add the Ivy — a league that doesn’t even award athletic scholarships.
With Harvard, Princeton and Columbia in the Big Dance, I’m looking at Harvard — reigning Ivy League tournament champs — to advance the furthest. Yes, this means only to the second round, where it’d face one hell of a matchup with NC State’s backcourt, but still. Tune in for two games worth of Harmoni Turner. You won’t regret it.
2K.
Harmoni Turner becomes just the third player in program history to surpass 2,000 career points.#GoCrimson x #BelieveItpic.twitter.com/fwEfoaKQba
— Harvard Women’s Basketball (@HarvardWBB) March 15, 2025
NC State’s backcourt is … back
The Wolfpack made a run to last season’s Final Four, and with its vaunted backcourt — Saniya Rivers, Aziaha James, Zoe Brooks — looking to run it back, Wes Moore’s crew can make it as far.
The Wolfpack’s issue this season has been its lack of a dominant interior presence that it had a year ago with River Baldwin. Tilda Trygger, the 6-6 freshman forward, has come on well toward the end of the season, but I’m not sure she’s enough of an answer, even with her growth at this point in the year, for the Wolfpack to beat the Tigers.
These teams faced off in December, with LSU winning by 17. Morrow finished with 15 rebounds in that game, just nine shy of the NC State team.
The streak lives … sort of
Stanford missed the NCAA Tournament this season for the first time 1987. In Tara VanDerveer’s first year of retirement, that 36-year streak is officially over.
But the VanDerveer streak does live on. Heidi VanDerveer, the younger sister of Tara, led UC San Diego to the Big West tournament title as a No. 4 seed. The Tritons are in the play-in game for the No. 16 seed that gets to take the court against UCLA in Westwood.
Birmingham 2
The committee giving South Carolina a bit more of a chip
The Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the country and had the most Quad 1 wins (16) — three more than the overall No. 1 seed UCLA (which played the sixth-toughest schedule). But the head-to-head loss to the Bruins in November and an uncompetitive loss to UConn in February ultimately edged UCLA ahead of South Carolina.
The Gamecocks aren’t quite as elite as they’ve been the last two seasons, but I have plenty of reasons to believe they will get to the Final Four. For starters, I just don’t see a matchup in Birmingham 2 that sticks out to me as potentially insurmountable for the Gamecocks (e.g. there aren’t any teams in SC’s path that can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc and can also contend with its transition game).
Additionally, no team enters the postseason with fresher legs than South Carolina. The Gamecocks’ five starters have averaged slightly more than 22 minutes a game with their three main reserves averaging a similar clip at just more than 20 minutes per game. That depth separates South Carolina on the national stage, especially when compared to the usage of other contenders’ starters (UCLA: 26, USC: 29, Texas: 25, UConn: 26).
But South Carolina lacks two key components from last season’s undefeated national title run — a trump card in the paint and elite 3-point shooting. As good as Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin have been inside, 6-7 Kamilla Cardoso they are not. On the outside, the Gamecocks went from being among the top one percent of 3-point shooting teams nationally a season ago (by percentage) to middle-of-the-pack this season, with only Tessa Johnson knocking down 40-plus percent of her attempts.
When South Carolina finally meets an opponent that knocks down 3s and keeps pace, trouble could then crop up. In my bracket, that’s not until Tampa when South Carolina hits the floor against Notre Dame.
A home-court advantage?
The benefit of getting one of the top 16 overall seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament is that you get to play the first two rounds on your home court, which should give you the advantage. There can also be increased pressure in this situation — notably, Caitlin Clark talked about how she was eager to finally get out of Iowa City to play at a neutral site during the last two tournaments.
Every year, a handful of teams ultimately fall at home. In my bracket this season, I have three teams losing at home: Maryland, Ohio State and Kentucky.
Maryland coach Brenda Frese has a knack for getting her teams to show up in March, but I’m just not confident in the Terrapins this season. On a few big stages so far — the Coretta Scott King Classic against Texas, the Big Ten tournament — Maryland didn’t put together four quarters. Against tough (and tested) Alabama, I think their season comes to an end.
America’s favorite team is back!
Oregon State dubbed itself “America’s Favorite Team” a season ago in a run to the Sweet 16 as the sun set on the Pac-12. But that roster was pretty much dismantled during the offseason as most of the Beavers’ top players opted to transfer, remaining on power conference rosters, instead of following Oregon State on its journey into the West Coast Conference. In total: Oregon State lost 82 percent of its offense. But as a No. 4 seed in the WCC tournament, with their backs up against the wall, the Beavers — again — made an unlikely run to the tournament title, grabbing the WCC’s auto bid.
The Beavers went 19-15 this season but won 10 of their final 12 games — the kind of momentum that can propel a team forward in March. That said, a draw against North Carolina on the Tar Heels home court isn’t exactly the makings for another Cinderella story. Impressive to see what Scott Rueck has done with this group, but hard to imagine the Beavers advancing out of Chapel Hill.
The rivalry lives to play one more game
The committee is supposed to do what it can to ensure that conference opponents don’t face one another until the Sweet 16, but there’s something pretty cheeky about North Carolina and Duke lining up in the Sweet 16. Tobacco Road in Birmingham? We’ll take it.
The Tar Heels and Blue Devils split their two games this season, with each team winning at home. UNC won the first matchup in overtime, 53-46, overcoming 26 turnovers. In the second game, with North Carolina’s Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly out and with Duke freshman Toby Fournier having a much better game, the Blue Devils put up a decisive 15-point victory.
The Blue Devils won the ACC tournament, but I like UNC’s chances in this best-of-three ACC challenge. With a full-health Tar Heel squad, UNC can finish the job and get the reward of facing South Carolina … again. The Gamecocks have ended UNC’s season in two of the last three tournaments — in 2024, in the second round; in 2022, in the Sweet 16.
Birmingham 3
Notre Dame to the Final Four (am I really typing this? AM I?)
I’ll be honest: I kind of feel like I’m playing with fire with this pick.
After becoming the early darlings of the season while riding a 19-game winning streak, the Irish hit a rough patch lately, going 2-3 in their final five games. That skid moved Notre Dame from the one line down to a three. Yikes.
I’m equal parts excited and terrified to see Notre Dame coming out of the ACC tournament (and its hour-long chat in the locker room after losing to Duke) because I have a feeling that if this were the wrong pick, I’ll know pretty quickly.
This is the most talented team Notre Dame has put on the floor since the 2018 national title run. So, were those losses so galvanizing that it gets the Irish over the Sweet 16 hump that has flummoxed them the last three seasons? Or will this season come to a seemingly premature end as they say goodbye to (most likely) three starters?
It could go either way. Is that a team you want to ride to the national title game? Not exactly. But I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Notre Dame comes out playing with the energy, joy, pace and finishing ability we saw in that early winning streak. If Olivia Miles and Hannah Hidalgo can knock down 3s, stretching the floor to smooth over some of the Irish interior’s deficiencies, I feel OK about this pick. Everyone loves a redemption story and this journey gives Notre Dame a chance to exorcise a few demons, most notably, against TCU in the Sweet 16.
And then, in a rematch against Texas (Notre Dame won 80-70 in OT this December in South Bend), the Irish will truly seem back to themselves as they punch their ticket to Tampa.
Texas faces a tough path
The Longhorns got the third No. 1 seed, but the committee didn’t do them any favors with a second-round matchup (in my bracket) against Creighton or a potential Sweet 16 meeting against Tennessee. The Bluejays knock down more than nine 3-pointers a game, and eight times this season they have hit 12 or more. If they’re on, that can be quite the point cushion in a game against a team like Texas, which makes just more than three per game.
Ultimately, the Longhorns should pull this one out because Creighton simply doesn’t have the inside presence to contend with Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre, but if you’re looking for what might be the closest second-round matchup for a No. 1 seed — this could be it.
Then, the Longhorns could get Tennessee in the Sweet 16. The Lady Vols sink just more than 10 a game (the fourth-most nationally). When these teams faced off in SEC play, Tennessee hit nine 3-pointers to Texas’ one. Just as it did the first time around, it’ll take some masterful play from Madison Booker and Taylor Jones to get past the Lady Vols, but now that Texas has seen this system, it’ll be better equipped to handle it.
Kim Caldwell picks up her first NCAA Tournament win (x2)
The Lady Vols kept their streak alive, maintaining their status as the only program that has entered every NCAA Tournament since it began in 1982. But that never felt like a certainty this season. Tennessee began the season unranked as first-year coach Kim Caldwell brought in an entirely new system (and just one season of Division I coaching experience).
Caldwell’s system is predicated on pace and causing chaos. It kind of seemed like every team that faced the Lady Vols this season went through an early shock to get established in the rhythm and rotation (Tennessee regularly substitutes five at a time), and it’ll be interesting to see how — in coming seasons — SEC opponents adjust once they have a better handle on this system. For now, the focus is this postseason, and Tennessee won’t face an opponent that has seen this system until the Sweet 16. Caldwell picks up her first two NCAA Tournament wins of her career, and the Lady Vols can feel — even if they didn’t make it any further this season under Caldwell than they did in any previous season under Kellie Harper — that it took a step forward.
selection show scenes 📸 pic.twitter.com/1LI8JilCdm
— Lady Vols Basketball (@LadyVol_Hoops) March 17, 2025
p;
A dangerous No. 6 seed
The Wolverines as a No. 6 seed seems dangerous, and there’s certainly one of those basketball angels sitting on my shoulder telling me, “You know, Michigan could beat Notre Dame in the second round … what are you doing sending the Irish to go all the way to the title game?” To which I say: PLEASE STOP. I ALREADY FEEL SHAKY ENOUGH ABOUT THIS NOTRE DAME PICK, ANGEL.
With a team heavy on freshmen (Michigan starts three — Olivia Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway), there were a lot of ups and downs this year, but a three-day run in the Big Ten tournament, with wins over Washington and then-No. 15 Maryland, as well as a good loss to then-No. 2 USC, seems like a nice way to set up a run. I don’t expect the Wolverines to make a Final Four run, but a good showing in the second round (against a team I have in the finals) seems more than doable. This is, after all, the team that nearly upset South Carolina during the first week of the season. These freshmen have shown they aren’t shaken by big stages. Can they carry that through on the biggest stage yet of their young careers? We’ll see. (But also, watch out Big Ten, next season, the Wolverines are coming.)
Spokane 4
USC feels ‘disrespected’ as fourth No. 1 seed
USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb didn’t mince words when she reacted to the Trojans’ spot as the last No. 1 seed.
“I never thought I’d be a one seed and feel disrespected,” she said. “I thought there would be very little chance we’d be the No. 4 overall. … This was not on my bingo card — to be frustrated after being a one seed.”
So, here we are. The question is: How does this frustration (if it translates to the players, too) manifest? The Trojans have the best player in the country in JuJu Watkins, but now, it has a path that’s … not enviable.
A second-round reunion with former Pac-12 competitor (and Gottlieb’s former team) Cal awaits in the second round, but things really start to get dicey in the Sweet 16. If Ayoka Lee is healthy and ready to go for Kansas State (more on that in the next blurb), then USC basically has another Betts-like challenge ahead, in addition to some darn good shooters around her. In the Elite Eight, we’d have a rematch of last season’s Elite Eight.
The difference? It’d be in Spokane instead of Portland, and Watkins is a more experienced sophomore while Paige Bueckers has an even greater sense of urgency. If I’m Gottlieb, this isn’t exactly the path I want to see after playing a season in which the Trojans won the Big Ten regular season and went 13-3 against Quad 1 opponents while playing the fourth-toughest schedule in the country. (For comparison’s sake: Texas went 14-3 against Quad 1 opponents and played the nation’s second-toughest schedule.)
Lindsay Gottlieb was not happy with USC being the 4th overall No. 1 seed.
“I never thought I’d be a 1 seed and feel disrespected,” Gottlieb said.
“Sometimes I don’t understand the people who make decisions in women’s college basketball and why they do what they do.” pic.twitter.com/hErcL8Dzw3
— Ryan Kartje (@Ryan_Kartje) March 17, 2025
Bueckers propels UConn to the Final Four
The Huskies’ run in this year’s postseason feels directly tied to how well they’ll shoot the ball from long range. They ended the season with the sixth-best 3-point shooting percentage in the country (38 percent), but in their losses, 3-point shooting was the statistic that proved to be a harbinger of UConn’s fate. In its three losses, it averaged 24 percent 3-point shooting.
Without a truly dominant interior presence, this is what can separate the Huskies in a hurry. Paige Bueckers (41 percent), Azzi Fudd (43 percent) and Ashlynn Shade (41 percent) are all distance shooters, while Sarah Strong (37 percent) and Kaitlyn Chen (38 percent) aren’t far behind. When they’re knocking down 3s, UConn can beat anyone. When they’re not … it gets a little bit dicey.
Of all the home-court advantages that will exist in the first two rounds, I’d have to think Storrs will provide the toughest for opponents given the expected fan turnout for (presumably) Bueckers’ final two games on campus. With that energy in the arena, it’s hard to see any team knocking off UConn.
In the Sweet 16, I have the Huskies facing Oklahoma, a particularly interesting matchup considering that Oklahoma center Raegan Beers’ two finalists after entering the portal last offseason were: Oklahoma and … UConn. Given that she’s in a Sooners uniform, we know how that went. While I don’t love any one-on-one matchup for UConn against Beers, I think the Huskies’ guard play can flip the switch on this game and advance UConn into an Elite Eight rematch with USC.
Every part of UConn would need to operate at 100 percent for the Huskies to have a chance to beat USC, but I saw what the Huskies did in Columbia in February with my own eyes, so I know it’s possible. USC beat UConn by two points earlier this season, but Fudd played only eight minutes (and went 0-of-4 from the floor). This was the most-watched regular-season game this season, and it has a chance to be the best game of the postseason with the star power of Watkins and Bueckers, and with a ticket to Tampa on the line.
To Lee or not to Lee?
All eyes are on Lexington as No. 5 seed Kansas State takes the floor. It’s been true all season, but it’s especially true now — Kansas State’s ceiling is markedly different depending on whether 6-6 Lee is 100 percent (or somewhere close to it). She has appeared in just 19 games this season (averaging 18 minutes per game), but she’s reportedly good to go for the NCAA Tournament.
If that’s the case, the Wildcats will be dangerous.
Point guard Serena Sundell leads power conference players in assists (7.1 per game), and Kansas State has three players who knock down at least 41 percent of their 3-pointers: Temira Poindexter, Jaelynn Glenn and Taryn Sides.
Kansas State would likely face Kentucky in the second round. So, let’s talk more about those Wildcats.
So many Wildcats
A massive amount of credit needs to flow Kenny Brooks’ way for what he has done at Kentucky this season. No. 22 in the preseason AP poll felt a little ambitious for a roster that was entirely new, a first-year coach at Kentucky and a program that hasn’t been nationally relevant in a decade.
Oh, how much can change in a few months. Georgia Amoore, the fifth-year Aussie point guard, ranks second among power conference players with seven assists a game as she balances 6-5 sophomore center Clara Strack (who averages a points-rebounds double-double and tacks on 2.6 assists and 2.4 blocks per game for good measure). Amoore and Brooks took a trip to the Final Four together two seasons ago when the pair was at Virginia Tech.
If Lee ultimately doesn’t play or have the impact she’s capable of when fully healthy, this game becomes interesting, especially since it would be played on Kentucky’s home court. But if Lee is in the game and healthy, she’d hold the advantage over Strack and 6-3 forward Amelia Hassett.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
USC Trojans, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Women's NCAA Tournament
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