Why Porter Moser's Sooners are poised to make a run in the NCAA Tournament
With 1:26 remaining on the clock, it the Sooners trailed Kentucky 80-70. Game over, right? Wrong.
Jeremiah Fears and Oklahoma had other plans. Fears completed an insanely impressive one-minute stretch featuring two made free throws, a steal, an assist, another steal, and a go-ahead bucket to give the Sooners an 84-83 lead with 5.6 seconds remaining.
It was one of the more impressive moments of the Porter Moser era, but unfortunately, former Sooner Otega Oweh got downhill and made a left-handed floater over three defenders as time expired to give Kentucky an 85-84 win — the second time they’ve beaten Oklahoma by a single point thanks to an Oweh game-winner.
Still, Oklahoma has been playing some of its best basketball at the right time, and Thursday night in Nashville, it showed why it belongs in the Field of 68. The Sooners went into the SEC Tournament with their NCAA Tournament hopes in solid shape, and after a win over Georgia on Wednesday, they all but sealed their spot. Thursday’s game only reinforced it.
On Sunday, Oklahoma will hear its name called for the Big Dance for not only the first time in the Moser era but the first time since 2021.
If you would have told Sooners fans that after Oklahoma’s loss to LSU on February 15th, they’d have been in disbelief. But this team has done what it needed to do in March.
Here’s why the Sooners have the ingredients needed to make a run in the NCAA Tournament next week.
Strong Play of Late
One of the main knocks against Moser was that his Oklahoma teams always seemed to peak in November and December. This season looked no different early on, as the Sooners won the Battle 4 Atlantis and picked up notable victories over Louisville, who finished second in the ACC, and Arizona, who finished third in the Big 12.
Then came another signature moment when Fears hit a game-winning four-point play in Charlotte to push the Sooners past Michigan, who finished second in the Big Ten. Those three wins looked like proof that this team was different, and now they are helping Oklahoma tremendously.
But as SEC play began, familiar concerns resurfaced. The Sooners blew an 18-point second-half lead to Texas A&M, did not show up in the first half against Texas, and lost to the worst team in the conference, LSU. At that point, Oklahoma was 3-9 in SEC play.
It seemed like another late-season collapse from a Moser-led squad, but instead, the Sooners flipped the script.
In their last seven games, Oklahoma has gone 4-3, with all three losses coming by a single possession. Two were on Oweh game-winners, and one was on a Sean Pedulla dagger. Their wins have been impressive, beating Mississippi State, taking care of Missouri, and finally going into Austin to beat Texas for the first time in Moser’s tenure. Then, they opened the SEC Tournament with a massive 81-75 victory over Georgia.
Simply put, this team is playing its best basketball at the right time, which is exactly what you want from a group looking to make a deep run in March.
The Jeremiah Fears Factor
It’s been clear throughout the entire season that Oklahoma will go as Fears goes, and lately, he has been at his best. We’ve seen special moments from the true freshman who should still be in high school, the very first sign being the Battle 4 Atlantis where he dropped 26 points, five assists, and five rebounds against Arizona.
Then, he had a spectacular performance against Michigan, scoring 30 points and hitting a four-point play to win it for the Sooners. But in his first few SEC games, you could tell the freshman had hit a bit of a wall.
But now, that has not been the case. Fears closed conference play with four impressive performances, one of which, against Missouri, where he scored a career-high 31 points, dished out five assists, and grabbed four rebounds on just one turnover.
Over the last seven games, he has averaged 22.7 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds. In two games in the SEC Tournament, Fears put up 28 points, five assists, four rebounds, and three steals against Kentucky and 29 points, six rebounds, three steals, and two assists against Georgia.
The SEC All-Freshman team member has been looking like one of the best freshmen in the entire country. Everyone knows you win with good guard play in March, and the Joliet, Illinois, native is going to be a problem for whoever is matched up with Oklahoma in the first round.
With Fears playing at the level he has been, the Sooners will have the chance to hang with just about anyone. He provided exciting moments in the SEC Tournament, and he is poised to do the same when Oklahoma returns to the NCAA Tournament next week.
Three-Point Shooting
One of the biggest goals for Moser and his staff in the offseason was to add three-point shooting. Last season, Oklahoma shot 34.5% from deep, ranking 144th in the country. This season, they have shot 37%, which not only puts them 35th nationally but also second in the SEC.
The Sooners have the firepower from behind the arc to get hot and become a major problem for any team. It starts with Brycen Goodine, who is second in the SEC in three-point percentage (per 100 attempts), shooting 43.4% from deep. He recently led Oklahoma with 14 points against Texas, showcasing the team’s scoring depth.
He also exploded for 34 points on 9-11 shooting from three against Texas A&M and dropped 24 points on 5-9 from deep against Texas A&M. And it’s not just Goodine — Duke Miles, who has attempted 91 threes, is shooting an impressive 44% from behind the arc.
Additionally, Kobe Elvis has really emerged of late. He started the year strong, most notably scoring 26 points against Providence, but hit a rough patch in the middle of SEC play, leading to a dip in minutes. Those minutes are back up, and so is his shooting — Elvis has hit 45% from deep over the last seven games, a big reason why the Sooners have played so well down the stretch.
Oklahoma clearly has the firepower from deep to hang with just about anyone in the tournament, especially if someone like Fears is also connecting from beyond the arc. If the Sooners do make a run, their ability to knock down threes will be a major factor.
A Coach Who Has Been There
The last time a Porter Moser-coached team made the NCAA Tournament, Loyola Chicago reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, knocking off top-seeded Illinois as an 8-seed. Three years prior, the Ramblers made a Cinderella run to the Final Four as an 11-seed.
There’s value in having a coach who knows how to win in March — someone with experience navigating the pressures of the NCAA Tournament. It’s a big reason why certain teams are seen as potential sleepers, and Oklahoma has that advantage. Moser has proven he can lead a team deep into the tournament.
Beyond the NCAA Tournament, his teams have consistently thrived in tournament settings. The Sooners have won each of their last three non-conference tournaments — the Battle 4 Atlantis, ESPN Events Invitational, and Rady Children’s Invitational — and they found success in the SEC Tournament this season.
The issue has been getting Oklahoma there in the first place, but this year, he’s done it.
Moser excels at winning that first game in a tournament setting. He’s done it multiple times — whether at Loyola Chicago or Oklahoma. The Sooners saw it earlier this season, handling Providence before ultimately winning the Battle 4 Atlantis. They also beat Georgia in the SEC Tournament and were a single Oweh game-winner away from advancing to the third round.
Oklahoma has also thrived on neutral courts this season. Outside of a loss to Kentucky, the Sooners have taken down Providence, Louisville, Michigan, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Georgia when playing at neutral sites. That bodes well for their chances of making noise in March.
Strong Depth
The Sooners have won three of their last five games, but during those victories, Jalon Moore has not scored over 14 points, even recording a season-low 2 points in one of the contests. This highlights Oklahoma’s depth but also suggests how dangerous the team could be if Moore gets back to the level of play that has him averaging 16 points on the season. A week’s worth of rest could be just what he needs.
Additionally, Oklahoma has been playing without Sam Godwin in their last three games, and during that stretch, Mohamed Wague has stepped up significantly. Back in Atlantis, Wague played just six and three minutes in two games, and did not see the floor in the third. His recent emergence has helped address one of Oklahoma’s biggest question marks: frontcourt depth.
Wague isn’t the only bench player to step up recently. Elvis has reemerged after seeing his minutes dip during the middle of SEC play. He scored 12 points and dished out four assists against Kentucky on Thursday night, marking his highest point total since January 11th.
Glenn Taylor Jr. has also turned in strong performances, scoring 9 points on 3-of-5 shooting against Kentucky and 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting against Texas. These are his two highest-scoring games since December 29th.
Another player to watch for Oklahoma’s scoring depth is Dayton Forsythe. Just four games ago, he dropped 25 points on 7-of-9 shooting from the field. In addition, Forsythe made two key free throws in 10 minutes of action against Georgia and contributed six points in an 11-minute stretch against Kentucky before being sidelined by injury.
In the end, the Sooners have a star guard, are playing their best basketball, have a coach who’s proven in March, possess potent three-point shooting, and boast solid depth—all essential ingredients for a successful March run.
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