Who has the edge in the women’s Sweet 16: Can USC beat Kansas State without JuJu Watkins?

Who has the edge in the women’s Sweet 16: Can USC beat Kansas State without JuJu Watkins? And then there were 16.

While the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament provided mostly chalk, the second weekend is sure to have some surprises in store as the biggest stars are still in play and some impending matchups are certain to dazzle. Five of these games are rematches of regular season games, which should make the chess matches must-see.

As we look ahead to the madness that kicks off again this Friday in the Sweet 16, let’s break down each matchup.

Spokane 1

No. 2 NC State vs. No. 3 LSU

7:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN

These teams met in November during the Baha Mar Thanksgiving tournament, where the Tigers emerged as an 82-65 winner. LSU turned the ball over 21 times, but the big difference came on the glass where LSU outrebounded the Wolfpack 44-24. Aneesah Morrow alone (15 boards) almost outrebounded the entire NC State roster. In short: The game plan for LSU in that game will likely be the same for this matchup. Their big three — Morrow, Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams (who combined for 60 points in the first meeting) — need to show up, and Morrow needs to be as relentless as ever on the boards.

did somebody say SWEET SIXTEEN?! pic.twitter.com/fXE9CqPxyg

— LSU Women’s Basketball (@LSUwbkb) March 25, 2025

Where might things be different this time around? In that first meeting, NC State’s 6-foot-6 freshman Tilda Trygger clocked just five minutes with her only recorded statistic being one turnover. That kind of production was certainly not what we saw through the ACC season as Trygger became a stronger force, garnering heavier minutes in the rotation to becoming an important part of the Wolfpack’sidentity as a starter. But can Trygger’s growth alongside 6-foot Madison Hayes slow Morrow enough on the glass to give NC State’s guards some breathing room to operate? That feels like the biggest question in this Sweet 16 game.

A postseason rematch is always good drama, especially when you’ve got veterans going toe-to-toe to extend their season (and end someone else’s). In this case, though it should be more balanced than the first meeting, LSU seems to have the upper hand. The Tigers still have the advantage on the boards, and they’ll protect the ball better this time. In its last 14 games, LSU has turned the ball over more than 14 times in four games (including just 11 TOs apiece in both tournament games).

Pick: LSU

No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 5 Ole Miss

10 p.m. Friday, ESPN

UCLA and Ole Miss started the season together in Paris, with the Bruins facing Louisville and the Rebels taking on USC. Now, they’ll be on the court together as one team ends the other’s 2024-25 campaign.

Ole Miss plays aggressive defense, forcing turnovers on more than a quarter of opposing possessions. The Rebels are physical on offense, attacking the paint and the glass and getting to the foul line more than 20 times per game. They win the possession game and take about 12 more field-goal attempts than their opponents. Even as Baylor had a good shooting night in the second round (45.8 percent from the field), Ole Miss edged out the Bears on their home court because of seven extra offensive rebounds and 10 more free-throw attempts.

The problem for the Rebels is that UCLA is bigger and more physical. The Bruins dominate the offensive boards with Lauren Betts and forwards Janiah Barker and Gabriela Jaquez crashing for second chances. They’re fourth in paint points per game, which they supplement with consistent shooting from beyond the arc (four players shoot at least 35 percent on 3-pointers). Richmond coach Aaron Roussell noted that the Spiders were prepared for what UCLA could do inside, but it was once the Bruins started raining 3s that their second-round game got out of hand.

The battle to watch inside is between Betts and Ole Miss center Christeen Iwuala, who spent her first two seasons at UCLA. Iwuala knows Betts’ tendencies as well as anyone, but if she could hang with her former teammate, she’d probably still be a Bruin. Furthermore, Iwuala’s presence on the Rebels means the UCLA coaching staff has been locked in on Ole Miss game tape all season.

“We’ve tuned in as a team to a lot of games, starting with in Paris at the very beginning of the year,” UCLA coach Cori Close said. “In fact, (in) our staff meetings all the time, (assistant coach Tasha) Brown will say, ‘Well, if we were Ole Miss, we would be defending like this, this and this’; if I had a dollar for every time she said that. We are going to have to get our act together for the Sweet 16 game. But we’ve been preparing all the way.”

The bet is that Betts wins her matchup with UCLA’s perimeter players giving her just enough of a boost from long range for the Bruins to make their first Elite Eight since 2018.

Pick: UCLA

Birmingham 2

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 North Carolina

2:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN

Nothing like a conference rivalry matchup to instantly turn up the heat in the Sweet 16. Duke and UNC split their two games this season, each winning at home. The Tar Heels’ victory was a low-scoring overtime affair, 53-46, as only two of the 20 total players reached double figures. The Blue Devils returned the favor in late February, taking advantage of UNC, which was without Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly, to put up a 68-53 win at home. Senior Reigan Richardson had her best game of the ACC season, pacing Duke with 23 points and three steals.

The big question here is whether Duke freshman Toby Fournier is available. The 6-foot-2 forward was ruled out shortly before the Blue Devils’ second-round game against Oregon. Coach Kara Lawson didn’t have an update or timetable for her return. Fournier leads the Blue Devils in scoring and is second in rebounding, despite playing fewer than 20 minutes a game.

If Fournier is good to go, she activates Duke’s productivity enough to give the Blue Devils the edge in potentially one of the tightest Sweet 16 games, considering how well these teams know each other. The Blue Devils entered the NCAA Tournament with a ton of momentum coming off their ACC tournament title. With multiple players picking up steam, the Blue Devils are well-positioned for their first Elite Eight appearance since 2013.

Pick: Duke

No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 4 Maryland

5 p.m. Friday, ESPN

Fourth-seeded Maryland has already taken part in the game of the tournament, defeating No. 5 Alabama 111-108 in double-overtime in the Round of 32. Can it pull off the upset of the tournament by defeating No. 1 South Carolina in the Sweet 16?

To do so, Maryland will need to play its best defensive game of the season. The Terrapins are top 20 in offensive rating, but they allow 95.2 points per 100 possessions, which is in the 45th percentile nationally. Although they are long and get into passing lanes, they don’t force many turnovers — just 15.9 per game — and South Carolina isn’t known as a program that beats itself. Offense is seldom a problem for Maryland. It attacks the basket, routinely getting to the free-throw line as it averages 22.5 free-throw attempts per game. The problem for the Terps in this matchup is foul trouble seems to have less of an effect against the Gamecocks, who have one of the deepest rotations in the country. Eight players average 19 or more minutes per game.

Always sweet when we do it 𝙩𝙤𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧

See you in Birmingham! pic.twitter.com/LnW1JDlmZP

— South Carolina Women’s Basketball (@GamecockWBB) March 24, 2025

The Gamecocks got pushed by No. 9 Indiana, which led by a point at halftime. IU was effective at keeping the Gamecocks off the offensive glass as South Carolina had just five second-chance points, down from 14.4 on the season. If Maryland can replicate that approach, it should keep the game competitive. Coach Brenda Freese’s rotation is made up entirely of upperclassmen who want to keep their college careers going, but Sarah Te-Biasu, Kaylene Smikle and Shyanne Sellers will have to play their best games.

Pick: South Carolina

Birmingham 3

No. 2 TCU vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

1 p.m. Saturday, ABC

TCU’s 80-76 victory over Notre Dame in November helped establish the Horned Frogs’ legitimacy as a national contender. The Horned Frogs rallied from 14 points down as star guard Hailey Van Lith scored 19 of her 21 points in the second half while center Sedona Prince had 20 points, 20 rebounds and eight blocks in one of the most impressive games any center played across college basketball.

The second-seeded Horned Frogs will look to replicate the success of their lead duo in this Sweet 16 matchup. But that’s just one part of the formula they’ll want to copy. Prince overpowered Notre Dame freshman Kate Koval, who went scoreless and eventually fouled out. The Irish average nearly 14 bench points per game, but they had merely three against TCU. TCU’s experienced defenders also kept Notre Dame to only 34.7 percent shooting from the field. One key difference for the Horned Frogs months later is the progression of sophomore guard Donovyn Hunter, who is now a fixture of TCU’s starting lineup and is coming off one of her best games of the season against Louisville (18 points, six rebounds, four assists and one steal).

The Horned Frogs have led at halftime in 26 consecutive games. If Notre Dame’s three-headed backcourt of Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron effectively attacks TCU’s defense, it should have a good chance to lead after half and at the game’s conclusion. The Horned Frogs’ lack of depth — and thus foul trouble and fatigue — is another factor to watch. Coach Mark Campbell relied on his bench for only six total minutes in TCU’s Round of 32 win over Louisville and just 18 combined minutes in the Big 12 title game. Miles, Hidalgo and Citron were effective in the first meeting against TCU. Who else on the Irish steps up will be another important element.

Pick: TCU

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Tennessee

3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC

Texas will have the first of what could be up to three SEC rematches this NCAA Tournament when it meets Tennessee on Saturday. The programs played in late January when the Longhorns staved off an upset, scoring the final four points to win 80-76. While there is a difference in seed between Texas and Tennessee, it’s hard to imagine the Lady Vols won’t feel like they can build off their close defeat earlier this season. Star Tennessee guards Talaysia Cooper and Jewell Spear scored only 13 combined points in the loss, and the Lady Vols held Texas lead guard Rori Harmon to just eight points on 3-of-11 shooting. Tennessee coach Kim Caldwell also missed that game after giving birth to her son days earlier.

Tennessee’s 3-point shooting was key to it keeping pace with Texas then, and it again will be critical on Saturday. The Lady Vols made nine of their 17 3-point attempts the first time around, a significant uptick for a team that shoots only 32.9 percent from deep on the season, and the Longhorns made just a single triple. Speaking of pace, although Texas slowed Tennessee’s pace and kept the Lady Vols off the offensive glass, Tennessee still sliced through Texas’ vaunted defense.

It’s reasonable to expect another close game between these programs, especially if Tennessee executes its game plan the way it did earlier this year. Texas should enter as the favorite, but it will need more from players not named Madison Booker and Taylor Jones (they combined to score 47 points against the Lady Vols last time). If the Lady Vols can slow either player, keep Harmon under wraps again, and shoot the 3 as well as they did in January, they could very well get back to their first Elite Eight since 2016.

Pick: Texas

Spokane 4

No. 2 Conn vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

5:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

Contrasting styles clash in Spokane with this matchup between UConn, a perennial March Goliath boasting 31 consecutive Sweet 16 appearances, and Oklahoma, a program that hasn’t advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2013. The Sooners are the nation’s fastest team, averaging 81 possessions per game. While they’ve shown they can be up for a track meet, the Huskies prefer to keep it more controlled, averaging fewer than 70 possessions per game.

Oklahoma holds the interior advantage with 6-foot-4 center Raegan Beers. Last offseason, when Beers’ portal recruiting was coming to a close, there were two contenders in the end: Oklahoma and UConn. (Don’t you love when the committee gives us spicy sub-plots to these games?) Many thought UConn was a better pacing fit for Beers, who came from Oregon State (which played at a similarly controlled speed), but the center chose the Sooners. The Huskies will likely use a Sarah Strong-Ice Brady-Jana El Alfy combination to limit Beers’ impact. Controlling the paint will be key since the Huskies and Sooners are both elite 3-point shooting teams.

The Huskies’ big advantage comes in the form of Postseason Paige, and expect her to be the player who tilts the scales. Fifth-year guard Paige Bueckers has been on a mission to get UConn to Tampa and to hoist her first national championship trophy. She’s having one of the most efficient seasons in basketball history — shooting 54 percent from the floor, 40 percent from 3 and 90 percent from the free-throw line — all while leading the country in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Pick: UConn

No. 1 USC vs. No. 5 Kansas State

8 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

As Kansas State enjoys the return of its best player for the NCAA Tournament, USC is experiencing the opposite fate after JuJu Watkins was ruled out for the rest of the tournament with a knee injury she sustained in a second-round win. There is no template for what USC looks like without its two-time first-team All-American short of the three adrenaline-filled quarters the Trojans played in Los Angeles on Monday night. The element of surprise might be their best shot against the veteran Wildcats.

The turnover battle will be critical in this matchup. USC activates its offense with full-court pressure that speeds up opponents and forces giveaways, allowing the Trojans to run in transition. However, Kansas State plays a measured pace and holds onto the ball while also assisting on more shots than any team in the country. In their wins, the Wildcats averaged 12 turnovers. That figure bumps up to 16 in losses. USC needs that number to tilt higher to beat Kansas State on the break.

The Wildcats are also the second-best long-distance shooting team in Division I, converting 38.8 percent of their 3-pointers. The Trojans’ best skill on defense is protecting the paint, but that is neutralized by Kansas State’s ability to space the floor. Furthermore, if Ayoka Lee can get Rayah Marshall into foul trouble, the Wildcats could find openings in the lane.

Even without Watkins, USC will be a tough out. The defense is menacing and disruptive, and Kiki Iriafen is an elite frontcourt scorer, especially during March. If the Trojans get hot shooting from their freshman trio of Kennedy Smith, Kayleigh Heckel and Avery Howell, a trip to the Elite Eight is within their grasp. But the margin of error is so much smaller without Watkins, and the senior-laded Wildcats can capitalize on all of USC’s mistakes.

Pick: Kansas State

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

USC Trojans, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Kansas State Wildcats, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Duke Blue Devils, Maryland Terrapins, Oklahoma Sooners, UCLA Bruins, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, South Carolina Gamecocks, North Carolina Tar Heels, TCU Horned Frogs, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Women's NCAA Tournament

2025 The Athletic Media Company

Topics

Why Kansas State could push USC women's basketball in Sweet 16 after JuJu Watkins injury

JuJu Watkins' injury might impact USC women's basketball's ability to offset the resiliency and experience of Kansas State in Sweet 16 bracket.
Yahoo Sports - 12h
USC women face massive challenge versus Kansas State in Sweet 16

Despite losing Juju Watkins, the Trojans play on in March Madness. Can they reinvent themselves vs Kansas State the way they did vs Mississippi State?
Yahoo Sports - 6h
Chalk talk: Women's March Madness goes mostly according to seed as top teams advance to second round

March Madness has mostly been March Predictable in the women's NCAA Tournament so far. The only two double-digit seeds still standing in the round of 32 were a pair of 10s — Oregon and South ...
Yahoo Sports - 2d
Chalk talk: Star power, top teams and No. 5 seeds headline the women's March Madness Sweet 16

There is plenty of star power left in women's March Madness with Paige Bueckers, Hannah Hidalgo and Lauren Betts still playing even if JuJu Watkins won't be. Watkins hurt her right knee in the ...
Yahoo Sports - 11h
JuJu Watkins injury: USC women's basketball star carried off court in NCAA Tournament game

JuJu Watkins, one of college basketball's biggest stars, left her Women's NCAA Tournament second-round game with an apparent injury Monday night.
Yahoo Sports - 18h
USC star JuJu Watkins carried to the locker room after injury in NCAA tournament

JuJu Watkins sustains an apparent knee injury while driving to the basket against Mississippi State in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Yahoo Sports - 19h
Chalk talk: Star power, top teams and No. 5 seeds headline the women's March Madness Sweet 16

There is plenty of star power left in women’s March Madness with Paige Bueckers, Hannah Hidalgo and Lauren Betts still playing even if JuJu Watkins won’t be
ABC News - 10h
NC State rides record-setting treys into Sweet 16

Two-seed NC State is headed to the Sweet 16 after the Wolfpack hit an NCAA tournament program-record 15 threes to beat Michigan State 83-49 in the women's second round.
ESPN - 22h
USC star JuJu Watkins sustains season-ending knee injury against Mississippi State in March Madness

JuJu Watkins was carried off the floor in the first quarter of top-seeded USC's game against Mississippi State in the women's NCAA Tournament.
CBS News - 16h