UFC London predictions, odds, full card preview: Does Leon Edwards still have it?
UFC and London are MMA's peanut butter and jelly: A match made in heaven.
UFC London events are always a treat solely for the incredible atmosphere and passion the Brits deliver. In the promotion's first U.K. appearance of 2025, former welterweight champion Leon Edwards returns to try and wash away the stain of his tough title loss against Belal Muhammad this past July. Australian contender Jack Della Maddalena was initially slated to battle "Rocky" until the call came to instead challenge the new champ Muhammad at UFC 315 in May, opening the door for Philadelphia's Sean Brady to capitalize in a relatively short-notice main event.
The co-main event also holds high stakes, as light heavyweight title hopefuls Carlos Ulberg and former champion Jan Blachowicz look to make a case to be next for the recently crowned Magomed Ankalaev.
Any event outside of the UFC APEX generally carries extra excitement and the card lineups often reflect that. UFC London is no different and appears to potentially be another fun night overseas, but who gets their hands raised? Let's break it down.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
170 pounds: Leon Edwards (+135) vs. Sean Brady (-160)
You're only as good as your last fight. The age-old quote rings true once again in the oddsmakers' eyes as the former champion Edwards is somehow an underdog one fight removed from his title loss. This somehow feels like an extended slap in the face to Muhammad, because that's just how much he gets underappreciated throughout the community.
Nonetheless, Brady is in a prime position to score his most significant career victory after falling under a similar guise to Edwards after he too lost against Muhammad in October 2022 — his lone defeat in 18 fights. Outside of Muhammad, Edwards and Brady are arguably the most well-rounded welterweights in the promotion. If their strengths were to be highlighted somewhere, Brady has the edge in wrestling, while Edwards is a technically superior striker — albeit a relatively low-volume striker.
Brady's pace and pressure are his key to victory in this fight, and attempting to reproduce Muhammad's performance in the Edwards rematch is undeniably his best path to victory. He'll surely go down that route. However, much has been made about the factors and elements around Edwards going into that fight — whether it was a minor back injury or the fight taking place in the early morning hours to accommodate the U.S. pay-per-view time slot. Ultimately, let's say those elements played a factor; Edwards displayed a remarkable improvement in his takedown defense throughout his title reign when tasked with notoriously great wrestlers Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.
Where Usman and Covington failed against Edwards was the ability to mix in their overall games, along with the wrestling threat to stifle Edwards. Even then, Usman, specifically, found success in both of their latter two encounters. Brady will have great periods of success replicating similar approaches as all previous Edwards opponents mentioned, and we've seen him go the five-round distance in his last fight with Gilbert Burns. The guy is the truth and will fight for a title someday. I expect this fight to be absurdly close and very possibly a split decision win for either. It's just hard to imagine Edwards won't continue to get better at dealing with and learning from his experiences against fighters who are similar enough and have one equal strength in five of his last six fights.
"Rocky" gets it done, but it's a reluctant pick. Flip a coin, folks.
Pick: Edwards
205 pounds: Jan Blachowicz (+240) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-300)
Father time is undefeated, and Blachowicz must get through him and Ulberg in the Octagon on Saturday night.
It's easy to forget that Blachowicz has been one of the best light heavyweights in the post-Jon Jones era. That's because he hasn't fought since July 2023, when he lost a split decision to the now-former champ Alex Pereira. Blachowicz is 42 and nearly retired during his layoff after a grueling pair of shoulder surgeries. That type of extreme process doesn't bode well for anyone's chances of success in a professional tussle, let alone a man of Blachowicz's experience and age.
Blachowicz has been a notoriously durable fighter throughout his 40-fight career, having only lost twice by knockout. Unfortunately for him, Ulberg is an absolute dynamo of a striker, possessing thunder in those New Zealand bricks he calls fists. Additionally, Ulberg has continued to improve in the grappling department, making him a threat in all areas. Against Blachowicz, he'll look to use those growing talents defensively, opening the big shot on the former champ.
Pre-layoff, I'm taking Blachowicz all day in this one. It just feels like it's about that moment for time to catch up to the wielder of "Legendary Polish Power."
Pick: Ulberg
170 pounds: Gunnar Nelson (-125) vs. Kevin Holland (+105)
Does the UFC secretly hate Kevin Holland?
Seriously. Including this fight with Gunnar Nelson, the "Trailblazer" has had three of the worst stylistic matchups imaginable thrown his way as of late.
There's no secret to what we get from Holland at this stage. The dude likes to strike — so much so that he doesn't care if it's in his best interest not to. (See the Stephen Thompson trouncing.) Physically, he has the edge over many opponents he'll face, especially at welterweight, but Nelson again is a nightmare.
Once one of the brightest rising talents at 170 pounds, somewhere Nelson just decided to become that guy you pull out of the darkness to show up and put someone in their place. He's fought twice since 2019, with one fight in 2022 and 2023 — wins over Bryan Barberena and Takashi Sato.
Since entering the promotion, Nelson has been one of the most physically difficult grapplers to deal with. He utilizes methodical transitions and top control to constrict his prey into submission. The only times Nelson struggles is really when someone can prevent his takedown or match his grappling abilities. While sneaky from defensive positions (ask Jacare Souza), Holland simply won't stop Nelson in that department.
Iceland's favorite fighting son might be working toward securing the slowest winning streak of all time.
Pick: Nelson
115 pounds: Molly McCann (+165) vs. Alexia Thainara (-200)
Molly McCann is a walking, breathing party — especially when she gets a fight on home soil.
"Meatball" has become somewhat of a "what if" case. She's been her best self since she dropped from flyweight to strawweight last year, but it appears to have been too little too late at 34, as evidenced in her loss to Bruna Brasil this past July.
Alexia Thainara will enter this bout as a replacement for Istela Nunes to make her promotional debut. The circumstances aren't ideal, but they shouldn't affect her too negatively, as she's a kryptonite-type of style to McCann's bruising brawler. Thainara is a capable submission threat and shouldn't have an issue getting McCann to the mat as long as she avoids getting into a slugfest. Admittedly, strawweight "Meatball" has been less prone to do so thus far, but the London faithful could very easily bring out her old ways, as it somewhat did against Brasil.
Pick: Thainara
155 pounds: Jordan Vucenic (-450) vs. Chris Duncan (+340)
"The Epidemic" vs. "The Problem" is a pretty fun nickname clash. These guys are hazardous to the other's health, aren't they?
Jordan Vucenic has been a terror throughout his 16-fight career, winning Cage Warriors gold and earning wins over the likes of Paul Hughes and Morgan Charriere — a fellow UFC London combatant. Despite Chris Duncan's superior UFC experience compared to his opponent, Vucenic has had a tougher schedule throughout his career. Even his UFC debut was nothing to be ashamed of, losing a unanimous decision against Guram Kutateladze, who we'll discuss shortly.
From the level of competition in opponents to their finishing ability, Vucenic takes the cake and has serious promise to make waves as he continues to enter his prime as a lightweight.
Pick: Vucenic
145 pounds: Nathaniel Wood (+115) vs. Morgan Charriere (-140)
Featherweight Nathaniel Wood has been a blast of a time. Spoiler alert: I've struggled mightily to pick against him throughout his entire run in the division so far, and I don't think I even have. That won't change this time despite Morgan Charriere also being an equally wonderful deliverer of chaos.
Wood's speed has carried over from bantamweight to make his sensational striking all the more dangerous at 145 pounds. He chains his combinations together beautifully, attacking from angles with in-and-out movement. However, what hasn't translated in the weight class for Wood is his power, which is likely what the oddsmaker see as his setback against someone like Charriere.
Charriere has been an abusive striker throughout his career. He'll take a couple to land a highlight blow, and against Wood, he'll feel that in spades with the speed difference. This should be a close thriller of a fight and acts as a great lead to open the main card.
Pick: Wood
Preliminary notes
Shoutout to Uncrowned's own "GC" Conner Burks for taking his talents to London, jerking the curtain in our first fight of the night. What can't he do?
In all seriousness, Guram Kutateladze is a bad, bad man and, in hindsight, has had a bizarre recent stretch of fights. The Georgian scored a big upset split decision win over top 10 staple Mateusz Gamrot in Gamrot's UFC debut five years ago — then he lost back-to-back bouts and rebounded with a win over Vucenic. Yet here he is as the first fight of the night, albeit, in a favorable matchup against Kaue Fernandes. But Kutateladze appears to have pissed off someone, and he could desperately use a big finish to get back towards the top 15 where he was after the Gamrot win.
Outside of that, there's plenty of European flavor to get the London crowd hyped early on the prelims. This card is definitely one worth watching off the rip. Enjoy, ladies and gentlemen.
Quick picks:
Chris Padilla (-105) def. Jai Herbert (-115)
Lone'er Kavanagh (-325) def. Felipe dos Santos (+260)
Marcin Tybura (+100) def. Mick Parkin (-120)
Christian Leroy Duncan (-550) def. Andrey Pulyaev (+400)
Puja Tomar (+150) def. Shauna Bannon (-185)
Caolan Loughran (-105) def. Nathan Fletcher (-115)
Guram Kutateladze (-450) def. Kaue Fernandes (+340)
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