No. 1 seed Duke's opening-week offense in March Madness was a display of elite efficiency
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Baylor coach Scott Drew knew beating No. 1 seed Duke would be a tough task considering the Blue Devils' elite efficiency rankings at both ends of the court.
“The analytics showed they didn't have any weaknesses,” Drew said Sunday after a 89-66 loss to Duke in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
And the Blue Devils have lived up to that heading into the Sweet 16.
Sure, the point margins are impressive enough. But the underlying data for teams still alive in the Sweet 16 can indicate which teams fit the profile of those that reach the Final Four or cut down the nets, and the Blue Devils have been absolutely dominant — notably at the offensive end behind junior Tyrese Proctor going on a sudden outside-shooting tear.
“First of all it helps when Tyrese is on the heater he was on,” graduate guard Sion James quipped.
“But we’ve built this throughout the year. This isn’t something that just kind of came on. We’ve been building toward this for the season. And now we’re hoping for the next few weeks that we can keep it sustained.”
Profiles of a winnerGoing back to the 2001 tournament, 16 of 23 national champions were ranked inside the top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency for KenPom entering March Madness, with six owning top-10 status at both ends.
Take a step back, and more than half of the Final Four teams (51 of 92) were inside the top 25 at both ends, with 18 of those being top 10 in both areas.
As for the others, slightly more than half of the remaining teams held at least top-10 status at one end of the floor to offer one commonality.
The tiersThat creates three tiers of Sweet 16 teams for this week:
—Five favorites who entered the tournament with top-25 rankings for both ends: the Blue Devils, fellow 1-seeds Florida, Houston and Auburn; and 2-seed Tennessee. Of that group, the Blue Devils are top 5 at both ends, while the Gators and Cougars are in the top 10.
—Six teams that ranked in the top 10 to offer elite play at one end of the court: 2-seeds Alabama and Michigan State; 3-seeds Kentucky and Texas Tech; and 4-seeds Purdue and Maryland. Of that group, the Spartans were the only top-10 defense and also flirted with joining the aforementioned top tier by entering the tournament ranked 27th offensively (118.1 points per 100 possessions).
—Five outliers: 4-seed Arizona, 5-seed Michigan, 6-seeds BYU and Mississippi; and 10-seed Arkansas. Of that group, BYU and Arizona were slightly outside of the top-10 offensively, while Michigan flirted with top-10 status defensively.
Duke's startThe Blue Devils entered the tournament ranked third in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency (128.0 points per 100 possessions) and fourth in defense (89.8). They have started their push for a sixth national title with home-state romps against Mount St. Mary's and Baylor as the headliner in the East Region, led by an offense exceeding its own elite season-long performance.
Duke has scored on 79 of 123 possessions (64.2%) through two games and is averaging 1.48 points per possession. By comparison, UConn began its blowout-filled march last year to a second straight NCAA title by averaging 1.29 points per possession and scoring on 59.7% of its possessions in the opening weekend.
Defensively, Duke has allowed 0.927 points per possession, a slight downtick from its regular-season numbers.
When it comes to this year's Sweet 16 teams, Duke's effective field-goal percentage — which factors in the added value of 3-point shots — was 67% through two games, according to Sportradar, with the Crimson Tide (61%) as the next-best team. The Blue Devils also have a Sweet 16-low eight turnovers through two games while posting a nearly 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
And Duke's 67-point victory margin through two games is 24 points better than Houston's as the next closest team, with the Blue Devils standing as the only member of the Sweet 16 to win both tournament games by at least 20 points.
Tournament testsThe other 1-seeds offer statistical profiles close to Duke, but they also have faced something the Blue Devils haven't: a test.
The Gators entered the tournament ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency (128.6) and No. 10 in defense (92.4), while the Cougars were the inverse by ranking 10th in offense (123.2) and second in defense (87.8). And No. 1 overall seed Auburn was slightly outside of that group by ranking third and 12th, respectively.
Yet all three have encountered a bit more resistance, notably with Florida having to take over down the stretch to end UConn's two-year title reign and Houston fending off Gonzaga in Round 2.
There's value in that, too, beyond the numbers.
“If you’re going to make a deep run in March, you’ve got to catch some breaks, and you’ve got to win some games like this to be able to push through and stay alive,” Florida coach Todd Golden said. “Theoretically, beating a team like UConn, that’s used to winning this time of year, in the fashion that we did should be really good for us moving forward.”
___
AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness. Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here.
Topics
-
Proctor, Flagg help No. 1 seed Duke roll past Baylor 89-66 to reach Sweet 16 of March Madness
Tyrese Proctor made seven 3-pointers and scored 25 points to continue his recent tear, helping No. 1 seed Duke beat Baylor 89-66 on Sunday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Freshman star ...Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Duke rolls through Baylor and into Sweet 16
The No. 1-seed Blue Devils took control of a second-round game with two big runs before halftime and closed out 9-seed Baylor, 89-66, to advance in the NCAA tournament. Duke (33-3) will face the ...Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Duke lands in East Region as 1-seed
Duke is headed to the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed for the 15th time in program history. The Blue Devils are the No. 2 overall seed for the men’s NCAA tournament, as announced on CBS on Sunday ...Yahoo Sports - Mar. 16 -
Duke let standout PG Jeremy Roach walk; a year later, retooled Blue Devils face Roach, Baylor in March Madness
Roach will face his old team when No. 9 Baylor faces No. 1 Duke on SundayCBS Sports - 2d -
March Madness: Mount St. Mary’s beats American 83-72 in First Four to earn date with No. 1 Duke
The Mountaineers earned a date with No. 1 seed Duke on Friday in an East Region game at Raleigh, North Carolina.Yahoo Sports - 5d -
NCAA Tournament: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida awarded top seeds in men’s bracket
The Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Houston Cougars and Florida Gators were selected as No. 1 seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.NBC News - Mar. 16 -
March Madness: Breaking down the race for NCAA men's tournament No. 1 seeds
Auburn remains the clear-cut No. 1 overall seed and Duke seems like a lock, but the other two spots are up for grabs heading into conference tournament week.Yahoo Sports - Mar. 10 -
March Madness 2025 betting, lines, odds: One bettor at BetMGM would win $1.75 million if Duke wins NCAA tournament
No. 1 Duke opens its tournament on 2:50 p.m. ET Friday against No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary's.Yahoo Sports - 5d -
Duke women’s basketball to face Lehigh to open March Madness in 2025 NCAA Tournament
Duke women's basketball just won its first ACC tournament championship in 12 years, and now the Blue Devils head into March Madness as a No. 2 seed.Yahoo Sports - Mar. 17
More from Yahoo Sports
-
Will Wade 'paid' for misdeeds at LSU. Now, he's thankful for a 2nd power-conference shot at NC State
Will Wade stood on stage, hearing the applause from Wolfpack supporters enthralled with his vision of turning a tradition-rich men’s basketball program back into a consistent Atlantic Coast ...Yahoo Sports - 25m -
SEC coach vouches for playmaking receiver to be drafted by Patriots
Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz believes the New England Patriots drafting wide receiver Luther Burden III makes sense.Yahoo Sports - 28m -
Clemson transfer wide receiver Tristan Smith impressing in spring camp
Clemson has a lot of talent at wide receiver, with transfer portal newcomer Tristan Smith impressing Garrett Riley so far this spring.Yahoo Sports - 31m -
Clemson transfer wide receiver Tristan Smith impressing in spring camp
Clemson has a lot of talent at wide receiver, with transfer portal newcomer Tristan Smith impressing Garrett Riley so far this spring.Yahoo Sports - 31m -
Cam Ward is poised to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft — and the right fantasy football fit for the Titans
Cam Ward has been surging up NFL Draft boards.Yahoo Sports - 33m
More in Sports
-
Women's Sweet 16 rankings: UConn is No. 1, USC holds tight at No. 4 as Trojans await word on Watkins
The Sweet 16 is set, and there's a new No. 1. But all eyes are on USC and injured JuJu Watkins.ESPN - 21m -
Picks, predictions, key players for every women's Sweet 16 game
Why might every Sweet 16 team win its regional semifinal matchup in Birmingham and Spokane? We predict the winners.ESPN - 21m -
Picks, predictions, key players for every women's Sweet 16 game
Why might every Sweet 16 team win its regional semifinal matchup in Birmingham and Spokane? We predict the winners.ESPN - 21m -
2025 Houston Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 13 majors
SportsLine's model simulated the 2025 Texas Children's Houston Open 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picksCBS Sports - 24m -
Will Wade 'paid' for misdeeds at LSU. Now, he's thankful for a 2nd power-conference shot at NC State
Will Wade stood on stage, hearing the applause from Wolfpack supporters enthralled with his vision of turning a tradition-rich men’s basketball program back into a consistent Atlantic Coast ...Yahoo Sports - 25m