Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: Kevin Durant to the Celtics just makes sense]
Fact or Fiction: We solved the Western Conference standings
The Western Conference playoff picture is a more confounding landscape than the Grand Canyon.
One game separates the Nos. 4 through 8 seeds. Depending on who wins what over the final two games of the season, there are, by my count, several million different ways the first-round playoff field can come into full view, and my math is definitely wrong. Even then only two first-round series will be determined.
A play-in tournament, featuring the Nos. 7 through 10 seeds, will dictate the other two. As a result, the first-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will not know whom they face in the opening round for another week.
Make it make sense. Or let it play out. Outlining every scenario would be like pausing "Good Will Hunting" long enough for someone to solve the equation on the chalkboard. Are you here for entertainment or homework? Let us instead take you through the most likely, most petty and most entertaining scenarios.
The most likely scenarios
According to PlayoffStatus.com, these are the most likely first-round playoff scenarios in the West (with the understanding that the play-in tournament would still need to determine the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds) ...
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (100%) vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies (55%)
Season series: Thunder 4, Grizzlies 0
The main event: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Ja Morant. Young superstars.
The undercard: Chet Holmgren vs. Jaren Jackson Jr. Even younger co-stars.
The pick: Thunder in five.
2. Houston Rockets (100%) vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors (32%)
Season series: Warriors 3, Rockets 2
The main event: Stephen Curry vs. Ime Udoka. A player-coach ...
