NBA teams are down to the final week-and-a-half of the regular season to make their respective playoff pushes.
And for teams lumped in or near the play-in window, that means the margins for error are shrinking. Still, with most teams having six or seven games remaining on their schedules, there could still be plenty of movement in the standings, particularly in the Western Conference, where four teams, the Warriors, Grizzlies, Timberwolves and Clippers — the five-through-eight seeds — are separated by just a single game.
USA TODAY Sports separated NBA bubble teams into three tiers in terms of their likelihood of making the playoffs — less likely, likely and more likely — and the things each team must do to get there.
(Stats and results are through Tuesday’s games)
Eastern Conference
Less likely
Chicago Bulls (34-42): They’ve been playing some of their best basketball in recent weeks and it appears as though we’re headed for a third consecutive Heat-Bulls matchup in the play-in. Chicago lost each of the previous two play-in games against Miami. Chicago must keep its recent offensive efficiency, with Josh Giddey running point guard and creating chances for Coby White and others.
Atlanta Hawks (36-39): This is an interesting scenario. The Hawks will almost certainly face the Magic in the first play-in game. Atlanta and Orlando have split the pair of games both have played thus far, but they will see each other twice in the final week of the regular season. Meaning there’s a high probability they will see each other three times in a week. While the Hawks have played well at times this season, their weaknesses on defense compromise their chance at success if their normally-hot shooting falters.
Likely
Orlando Magic (37-40): That’s why the Magic get the slight edge here. If indeed Orlando faces the Hawks in the play-in, one victory gets the Magic through to the playoffs. Orlando has been the better team down the stretch, although they do record the occasional offensive clunker.
Miami Heat (34-41): Their five-game winning streak snapped a 10-game losing streak and came mostly against teams completely out of the playoff picture. All season long, the Heat have failed to play up to contenders, going 9-26 (.257) against squads .500 or better, and they’ve struggled to finish games in the fourth quarter. None of the teams Miami would face in the play-in, however, are teams with winning records and the Heat has plenty of experience in the play-in tournament. A deep postseason run, though, appears unlikely.
More likely
Milwaukee Bucks (41-34): They’re in the sixth seed and a solid five games ahead of the Magic, but the Bucks have lost six of their last nine. They haven’t figured out their offensive rhythm with Damian Lillard (deep vein thrombosis) sidelined, so the Bucks need Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis (eligible to return from suspension April 8) to step up. Milwaukee, ranked 25th in defensive rating (119.5) over the last nine games, must also defend far better. The good news? Milwaukee has the NBA’s sixth-easiest remaining ...
