MSU-UM rematch in NCAA Tournament? See the odds of this happening according to one analyst

We could be looking at a situation where Michigan State will be facing rival Michigan for a trip to the Final Four in a few weeks. But, it's a slim chance that'll occur, according to one analyst.

Both Michigan State and Michigan were placed in the South Region on Sunday when the brackets came out, and that obviously got many wondering on the chances of those two teams meeting for a third time this year in the NCAA Tournament. For this rivalry rematch to occur, both teams would need to make their way to the Elite Eight and that apparently is very unlikely, according to Paul Fanson of Spartans Illustrated.

Fanson is known for his analytics analysis and predictive metrics so of course he needed to run the algorithm to see what were the odds of the Spartans and Wolverines linking up in the Elite Eight. Well, according to Fanson, those odds are about 3 percent.

Fanson posted on social media platform X that Michigan State has a 40 percent chance of reaching the Elite Eight out of the bottom half of the South Region. Michigan, however, only is given a 17 percent chance to reach the Elite Eight out of the upper half of the South Region.

In case anyone is wondering (and I am sure they are a lot of people wondering) the odds for an MSU/UofM rematch in the South Regional Final are just 3%.

MSU's odds to make the Regional Final = 40%
Michigan's odds to make the Regional Final = 7.6%
— Dr. Green and White (@PaulFanson) March 17, 2025

Michigan State swept the regular season series against Michigan, with both of the Spartans' victories coming by double-digits. The most recent game ended with a scuffle between the two teams when two Michigan players refused to move off the Spartans' logo during the Michigan State senior day tradition of kissing center court as they leave the floor one final time in their careers. So, should these two teams actually meet in the Elite Eight, it would surely be must-see TV.

Michigan State opens the NCAA Tournament with a matchup against No. 15 seed Bryant on Friday night. Tip off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET from Cleveland. Michigan plays their first round game on Thursday at 10 p.m. ET against No. 12 seed UC San Diego in Denver.

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page onFacebookto follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.

This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: MSU-UM rematch in NCAA Tournament not likely according to one analyst

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