Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate from 2025 NFL free agency

Normally in “Love/Hate” we bury the caveat. You know the caveat — it’s the thing after the opening story but before we get to the players — where I explain the premise of “Love/Hate” even though I’ve only been doing the same column for over 20 years, and that no matter how many times I do it, there’s always one moron who doesn’t read it, doesn’t understand it or just wants to be a troll and tries to take something from this column and claim I am saying something that I am clearly not.

But, in honor of you, one moron, wherever you are, I am leading off with the caveat. And the caveat for this particular column is thus: Free Agency Love/Hate is NOT about who I “love” or “hate” this upcoming year.

Rather, this is entirely about how the moves of free agency – both to the specific player and his team – has affected their fantasy value. Free agency moves that help a player’s value. They’re “LOVES.” And free agency moves that have dropped a player’s value. They are “HATES.”

For example, below, in the “Others Receiving Votes” section of QB Love, I list Daniel Jones. Do I love Daniel Jones this year? I most assuredly do not. BUT, considering the last time we saw him was on a sideline holding a clipboard for the Vikings with no chance of seeing action and after free agency, he now has a legit shot at being the Colts starting QB this year, well, his fantasy value – whatever it was before – has clearly gone significantly up.

So, that’s the premise of this specific column. That’s the caveat, and that’s the intro. That’s right. Come on. It’s March and we all have basketball to watch. So, no intro, just another thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski, who, as always, helped at various points in this column and some housekeeping.

We are continuing to do weekly episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour throughout the offseason. You can watch them on demand on Peacock, see them on the NFL on NBC YouTube Channel, and of course, wherever you get your podcasts.

Here we go:

Free Agency Quarterbacks I Love

Jayden Daniels, Washington

It’s very strange to see my Washington Commanders go all in. Sure, in recent decades, they’ve caused me to go all in. Specifically, putting all of my head in a toilet bowl as I vomited after watching them attempt to play football, stop their stadium from falling apart, respond to hundreds of allegations, lawsuits, investigations, and complaints. But this kind of all-in? Being good and trying to be great? This is very different. And I love it. Seriously. I LOVE IT. And thanks to some of the moves they’ve made so far this offseason, there’s every reason to think Jayden Daniels will be a top three fantasy quarterback in 2025. Last season, Washington ran the second-most wide receiver screens in the NFL, and Deebo Samuel – no matter how washed or out of shape you think he might be – is still an upgrade as a YAC option over Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown. Samuel is also in a contract year, so I’m betting on him pulling it together as a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden’s offense. So, that’s a big upgrade for Daniels' offense, as are bringing back clutch security blanket Zach Ertz, and in a massive move, getting Laremy Tunsil as a huge upgrade on the offense line. Last season, Tunsil was top 10 among tackles in pass block win rate. And when Jayden Daniels has time, anything can happen. Just ask Chicago. Speaking of Chicago...

Caleb Williams, Chicago

Detroit’s offense ranked top five in total yards and points scored in all three seasons in which Ben Johnson ran the show. In addition to hiring the offensive-minded Johnson who immediately said everything he does will be with Caleb Williams' skill set in mind, the Bears also significantly upgraded their offensive line with the acquisitions of Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman. The Bears have no intention of leading the league in sacks allowed again (68) like they did last season. The 2024 Bears also surrendered the eighth-most QB pressures, and Caleb Williams had a 65.9 passer rating when pressured versus a 95.5 rating when not. The Bears are clearly surrounding Williams with the right pieces. Now, that doesn’t guarantee success, of course. You can surround me with healthy food options, and I will still order chicken fingers. But I am weak and hopefully Williams and the Bears are not. Either way, things are definitely trending in the right direction with Williams in Chicago. Right now, I have him as a low-end QB1 in 2025, and yesterday I actually considered a salad. 

Justin Fields, New York Jets

Justin Fields looks like the clear QB1 for the Jets in 2025. Beyond that? Who knows. So, let’s capitalize on the present. Get this: In Fields’ six starts with the Steelers last season, he was QB7 in PPG (18.9). Last season, seven of the top 10 quarterbacks in PPG averaged 20-plus rushing yards per game. Fields? Over his 44 career starts, he averages 55 rushing yards and 17.2 PPG. I also like the fact that Fields will be reunited on the Jets with Garrett Wilson, his former Ohio State target. Like Williams, Fields is a low-end QB1 in 2025 for me. And yes, if you’re looking for an example of how insane the times, we are currently living in are, I’m actually excited about the quarterbacks of the Commanders, Bears, and New York Jets.

Others receiving votes: The Bengals have extended Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki. On the other hand, they have not extended 2024 NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson. And I’m all for it. I mean, we’re playing fantasy football here, not tackle football. Anyway, those re-signings are obviously great news for Joe Burrow. Last season, Chase, Higgins and Gesicki accounted for 67% of Burrow’s passing yards and touchdowns. Considering there was a chance of holdouts or a trade, Cincy getting the Big 3 back for Joey B solidifies Burrow as an easy top five fantasy QB heading into 2025. … Back in 2022, Geno Smith had his career-best season under Pete Carroll (17.9 PPG, QB9). Now, Carroll and Smith are reunited in Las Vegas, where they’ll run Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. Kelly utilizes zone-read and option plays, which should play to some of Smith’s strengths. Smith averaged 15-plus rushing yards per game in two of his past three seasons. I prefer Smith playing in a dome for Chip Kelly’s offense with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Myers than outdoors in Seattle with whatever was gonna be left of the Seahawks, so this is an improvement for Smith and makes him a solid mid-tier QB2 with some weekly upside in the right matchups. … Over the past two seasons, in games in which both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were active, Matthew Stafford averaged 16.4 PPG. Last season, that would have been good enough for QB15 in PPG. And yes, Cooper Kupp is no longer around, but I think it’s fair to argue Davante Adams is an upgrade. ... As I mentioned in the open, Daniel Jones gets an upgrade to his fantasy value by going to the Colts. Indy is clearly willing to replace Anthony Richardson via open competition and Jones, despite all of his struggles, still had a higher passer rating and QBR last season than Richardson did. And while obviously not the ball carrier that Richardson is, Jones retains the ability to run. A full 30% of his career fantasy points are on the ground and he averages 31.5 rushing yards per game over his 69 career starts. I could easily see Jones being fantasy-useable in Shane Steichen’s offense.

Free Agency Quarterbacks I Hate

Sam Darnold, Seattle

Sam Darnold signed a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seahawks, with $55 million of that guaranteed. Impressive. Yet as the saying goes: “Money can’t buy you a place on the free agency edition Love/Hate list.” Even if Darnold is now a legit quarterback, leaving Kevin O'Connell, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson is a huge downgrade. Even if Cooper Kupp stays healthy (no guarantee), I much prefer Minnesota’s overall offensive weapons to Seattle’s. So, it’s a downgrade for Darnold, as is playing behind Seattle’s line, which gave up the second-most QB pressures last season and allowed the third-highest pressure rate. And as we have seen, when Darnold is under pressure, bad things happen. I also don’t love going from playing indoors on the turf to having to play half his games outdoors in the cold and windy Seattle weather. Happy for Darnold the person to get paid, but fantasy wise? Bleah. After a year as a top 10 fantasy QB in Minnesota, I currently have Darnold as a low-end QB2 in 2025, putting him down at the QB18-24 range.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard are under pressure to show progress in Indianapolis, and so far, Anthony Richardson hasn’t developed. Richardson could easily lose the QB1 job in camp to Jones, especially because Jones’ mobility means Indianapolis can keep its core offense in place (unlike with comeback player of the year, but statuesque Joe Flacco). But hey, even if Richardson wins the job, it’s impossible to overlook the fact that he was last among qualified QBs last season in completion percentage, off-target rate, and passer rating. Richardson’s running ability remains impressive. But his passing and the threat of getting benched (as happened last year with a lesser talent behind him) limits his ceiling and keeps him as a mid-tier QB2. So, in Richardson, you’re looking at a quarterback with a capped upside who may get benched any given week. Hard to feel any confidence drafting him.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

The Patriots have been an organization in turmoil the last few seasons, going in short order from Bill Belichick to Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel. But in all the chaos, at least one thing has held consistent: New England’s absolute refusal to acquire competent wide receivers. They simply won’t do it, and you can’t make them. After a season in which the Patriots ranked 32nd in wide receiver yards, and with a young quarterback they presumably wish to surround with weapons, the Patriots signed … Mack Hollins. I love Mack Hollins but, you know, he’s a depth piece, not your big free agent acquisition. Now, granted, the NFL draft is still to come, but right now I have Drake Maye slotted as no better than a low-end QB2 in his second year. (And I know they are hosting Stefon Diggs for a visit as of this writing. Proves the point. If the best guy is an over 30 WR coming off a major, major injury…)

Free Agency Running Backs I Love

Chase Brown, Cincinnati

The status of Zack Moss for 2025 and beyond remains up in the air due to his neck injury, and the only running back the Bengals added in free agency was Samaje Perine. Incredible beard aside, Perine is nearly 30 and had just 48 touches last season. So, as things stand right now, Chase Brown is looking like the RB1 in an explosive Cincinnati offense. Don’t forget: Brown was outstanding last season down the stretch. From Weeks 9-18, he averaged 23.6 touches per game, 116.3 scrimmage yards per game, 20.6 PPG, and saw a 13.3% target share and 85% snap rate. All of those were top eight at the running back position. I have Brown as a low-end RB1 in 2025. 

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh

Najee Harris moving on vacates 299 touches in the Pittsburgh offense. That’s 17.6 per game. Crazy. Plus, if you think about it, the lack of a legitimate quarterback on the Steelers essentially vacates ALL the touches in the Pittsburgh offense. They could just snap it directly to Jaylen Warren every play! Somewhere, Arthur Smith just got a little too excited thinking about that scenario. For now, let’s focus on this: In Warren’s eight career games with 15-plus touches, he’s averaged 92 scrimmage yards, along with 13.8 PPG and a 15% target share. Meanwhile, since entering the NFL, Warren ranks top 15 (minimum 300 touches) among running backs in fantasy points per touch. I love that efficiency, especially when his only competition on the depth chart currently is Kenneth Gainwell and Cordarrelle Patterson. Give me Warren as a low-end RB2 in the RB18-24 range. 

Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers

If you’re reading a Matthew Berry Love/Hate column in mid-March, you probably know me well enough to know that I’ve never written or said a ton of positive things about Najee Harris as a fantasy producer. You also know that I’ve said probably zero positive things about Hassan Haskins or Kimani Vidal. As things stand right now, Haskins and Vidal are the only two other backs on the Chargers' depth chart after Harris. Meaning: Harris is the obvious lead back for the Chargers. That’s significant, because last season the Chargers ranked top 12 in both RB carries and RB rushing touchdowns. They were also top 10 in overall rush rate. As for Harris, he has never missed a game in his four-year career and has gone for 280-plus touches and 1,200-plus scrimmage yards in each. So, even if it’s just counting stats that Harris compiles with the Chargers, there will be a lot of opportunities for counting and compiling. He’s a low-end RB2 for me at this stage in the offseason. 

Others receiving votes: Last season, Aaron Jones was on a one-year “prove it” deal with Minnesota. He parlayed that into a two-year “okay, you successfully proved it” deal this offseason with the Vikings thanks to putting up 75 scrimmage yards in 13 of his 17 games. His 306 touches last season were seventh among all backs, and he was top 8 at the position in both receptions and receiving yards. The Vikings like Jones, and I like Jones as a fantasy back in that RB18-24 range. … All that said, the Vikings also acquired Jordan Mason from San Francisco. In Mason’s seven games with 12-plus touches last season, he averaged 14.3 PPG and 96 rushing yards. With Jones turning 30 in December and coming off career highs in usage stats, Mason has a lot of upside as insurance. … Dallas’ acquisition of Javonte Williams didn’t exactly thrill Cowboys fans hoping the team would make a big splash in free agency for the first time in approximately forever. But IF the Cowboys don’t draft a back early, Williams is likely to get the bulk of the work in that offense, considering Rico Dowdle is gone and only Miles Sanders and Deuce Vaughn are behind Williams on the depth chart. Williams, by the way, has received a double-digit target share in all four of his career seasons. … As fantasy managers know quite well, Christian McCaffrey has a long injury history. He also turns 29 in June. After car, life, and home insurance, Christian McCaffrey insurance is the most important insurance a person can have. So, give me some Isaac Guerendo. In his four games with 12-plus touches last season, he averaged 17.9 PPG and saw a 12% target share. With Mason sent off to Minnesota and Elijah Mitchell signing with the Chiefs, Guerendo is the guy behind McCaffrey. 

Free Agency Running Backs I Hate

Joe Mixon, Houston

Houston ranked 22nd in yards before contact on RB carries last season. Since then, the Texans traded away offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil and Kenyon Green, while only adding Laken Tomlinson. It’s hard to see that as an upgrade to the line. Then there’s the fact that Mixon also saw his production dip as last season wore on, averaging 3.4 YPC from Weeks 10-18, compared to 4.8 YPC from Weeks 1-9. Considering he turns 29 before the season, there are a lot of red flags here. That’s why I can’t put him any higher than a mid-tier RB2 right now.

Rico Dowdle, Carolina

Rico Dowdle grew up in South Carolina and North Carolina and played in college at South Carolina. So, it makes sense that he signed with Carolina as a homecoming. It just doesn’t make much sense otherwise. At least not in fantasy. Chuba Hubbard is already comfortably entrenched in the Carolina backfield. In fact, last season Hubbard ranked third among RBs in snap rate (77%) and touches per game (19.5). The Panthers also ranked just 21st in total RB fantasy points, so even if Dowdle gets some of Hubbard’s workload, I’m not sure it will lead to much. Dowdle went from the starting RB of the Cowboys to RB depth for the Panthers and is now outside of my top 40 at the position. 

Free Agency Pass Catchers I Love

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville

New Jaguars head coach Liam Cohen said this offseason that the passing game will “run through” Brian Thomas, Jr.  And since Liam Cohen has never been misleading in any way, I’m going to take him at his word. But, even if you ignore Cohen’s endorsement, it would be hard for that Jaguars offense to go through anyone but Thomas. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are gone, and they both accounted for target shares over 20% last season in their healthy games. Plus, get this: In the four games both Kirk and Engram missed in 2024 from Weeks 15-18, Thomas averaged 25.5 PPG - making him WR1 over that span.  I have him as a top 10 fantasy WR in 2025. 

Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

Davante Adams will get a ton of work in the Rams' offense. They have had multiple top 24 fantasy wide receivers in PPG in three of Stafford’s four seasons in Los Angeles. In fact, the Rams have led the league in WR target share in three of the past four seasons and were top five in that department in the other. And sure, maybe Davante Adams lost a step somewhere between Green Bay and Las Vegas, or Las Vegas and North Jersey, but he still has seven straight seasons with a target share of at least 29.5%. He’s also been a top 10 WR in PPG in six of those seasons. And I’d argue, at this stage of their respective careers, Matthew Stafford is a QB upgrade over 2024 Aaron Rodgers. So, yeah, I’m confident in Adams as a high-end WR2 in 2025. 

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay

I get the concerns over Chris Godwin’s dislocated ankle, but the Buccaneers have been monitoring it since the beginning, and if they had concerns … I submit to you that they would not have re-signed Godwin to a contract with a $44 million guaranteed. So, while I get the concerns, I’m also not at all concerned. And yes, while the Bucs have a new offensive coordinator … it’s Josh Grizzard, their 2024 passing game coordinator. No concerns there either. Because Tampa Bay’s 2024 passing game was very good to Chris Godwin. Through Week 7, before his injury, Godwin was top five among wide receivers in PPG (19.7), receptions per game (7.1), receiving yards per game (82.3), and targets per game (8.9). I have Chris Godwin as a productive WR again in 2025, coming in somewhere in that WR20-30 range.

Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas

If you get a Toyota Corolla, no one is going to say they’re jealous of you. No one is going to ask to take pictures with it. But it’s a very solid car. (Big Toyota fan here). And, if your previous vehicle was a scooter, it’s a massive upgrade that will make getting from place to place much more efficient. Which brings me to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Last season, Bowers put up a 112-1194-5 line as a rookie and was TE1 in fantasy. And over the last two seasons, Meyers was WR21 in PPG. That was with Bowers’ quarterbacks being Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder, and Meyers’ catching passes from those guys plus Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not saying Geno Smith is a future Hall of Famer. But he’s a big upgrade to a Corolla from a scooter, and that can only help the production of Vegas’ top pass catchers. During Smith’s three seasons as a starter, Seattle ranked ninth in yards per pass attempt, while the Raiders ranked 24th over that span. Smith also has three straight seasons with 3,500-plus yards and 20-plus passing touchdowns, while the last Raiders QB to do that was Derek Carr in 2022. I see Bowers as TE1 again this year, and Meyers somewhere in the WR30-36 range. 

Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco

Brandon Aiyuk is unlikely to be 100% by Week 1 and Deebo Samuel is gone – along with the 20% target share he had in healthy games last season – so I like how things are shaping up for both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall in San Francisco. In the nine games Jennings played last season in which he saw more than 70% of the snaps, he averaged 17.9 PPG. And in the five games in which Pearsall got a target share of at least 15%, he averaged 68 yards per game and 16.3 PPG. 

Evan Engram, Denver

After signing with the Broncos, Evan Engram posted a GIF of the Joker. I’m 99% certain this was in reference to Sean Payton saying weeks earlier that the Broncos' offense needs a “joker” weapon that can create mismatches underneath, and not that Engram plans to terrorize Gotham. But I guess time will tell. While we wait for the answer, know this: Engram has back-to-back seasons with a target share of at least 23%. Over that same span, his aDOT is fourth lowest among tight ends. Considering Bo Nix ranked 26th among qualified quarterbacks in aDOT last season and had the fifth-most pass attempts under 10 yards, he will likely be looking to Engram often underneath. All that makes Engram a low-end TE1 in 2025. 

Others receiving votes: Before the Jets acquired Davante Adams last season, Garrett Wilson averaged 16.2 PPG (WR11) and saw a 30% target share. After Adams arrived? Those numbers dropped across the board to 14.1 PPG, WR25 and 23.5%. I should note that I’m also not too concerned with Justin Fields being the guy responsible for getting Wilson the ball, and it’s not just that Ohio State connection. Back in 2023 in Chicago, Fields did well enough to support DJ Moore as WR9 in PPG. … With Stefon Diggs a free agent and looking unlikely to return, and Tank Dell working through serious injuries, Christian Kirk is now the clear WR2 in Houston behind Nico Collins. Don’t forget: Before the injury, Diggs was WR16 in PPG in this offense, running a lot out of the slot and was seeing a 24% target share. I also like the fact that new Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley comes from offenses that utilized the slot heavily, which plays to Kirk’s strengths. … Get this: It’s rumored that the final season of Stranger Things will be released in September, which is the exact same time as … you guessed it! … the breakout season for Brenton Strange is scheduled to begin! What synergy! With Evan Engram gone from Jacksonville, Strange is in line to be the TE1 on a team that last season ranked eighth in TE target share. Strange has at least nine fantasy points in seven of his nine career games with a double-digit target share. … While Travis Kelce’s decision to keep playing got a smidge more publicity in the Taylorsphere, don’t overlook Zach Ertz. Ertz will be back, too, on an improved offense and last season he was top 12 among tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. … While Ertz is looking like a high-end TE2 in 2025, I have Mike Gesicki just behind him in that TE16-20 range. In the five games Tee Higgins missed last season, Gesicki averaged 13.4 PPG and had a 19% target share. So, sure, Higgins going elsewhere would have helped Gesicki from a fantasy perspective (if not a real football perspective). But on the season as a whole, Gesicki still had a career-high catch rate of 78% and was tied for eighth among all tight ends in receptions (65). He will remain productive in that offense with Joe Burrow.

Free agency Pass Catchers I Hate:

DK Metcalf and George Pickens, Pittsburgh

Before I get too deep into the numbers here, I should note that this is all contingent on the Steelers deciding to run an offense that includes someone capable of playing the quarterback position in the NFL. If the Steelers run a 10-man, quarterback-less offense – as they are currently constructed – I would downgrade DK Metcalf and George Pickens further. (Apologies to the Mason Rudolph truthers). Anyway, in the six seasons in which Arthur Smith’s offenses (HC or OC) have had a quarterback, they’ve ranked 25th or lower in pass attempts in five of those. Only once has a WR on an Arthur Smith offense finished higher than WR30 in PPG. Last season, Pickens averaged just 8.7 PPG in games in which he had a target share below 25% and, for all his talent, Metcalf has only once finished a season higher than WR22 in PPG. It’s hard to see Metcalf changing that history with Arthur Smith. And without a quarterback, both Steelers WRs are low-end WR3s for me. 

Cooper Kupp, Seattle

Before joining the Seahawks, Klint Kubiak was offensive coordinator with the Saints in 2024 and the Vikings in 2021. Neither of those teams ranked higher than 18th in pass rate. Those offenses also used 11 personnel (3 WR sets) at bottom four rates. That’s a very different kind of offense than the pass-heavy attacks that featured Cooper Kupp with the Rams. Kupp also has a similar, overlapping skill set to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kupp has an aDOT of 7.9 over the past two seasons, compared to 7.6 for JSN. So, it’s unclear how they’ll fit together. While it breaks my heart to write this, Kupp is in that WR40-48 range. 

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay

Jalen Hurts = the quarterback who won the Super Bowl. Jalen hurts = what possibly describes Jalen McMillan’s feelings when the Buccaneers re-signed Chris Godwin. Because listen, when Godwin went down last year, McMillan broke out. In games without Godwin, McMillan averaged 14.4 PPG. He also had a 16% target share and 85% route participation. But when Godwin was active, McMillan had a 9% target share, 63% route participation and his fantasy PPG average was – excuse me while I dry heave here for a few seconds – just 4.1. McMillan is better suited to play in the slot, but when Godwin was healthy, only 24% of McMillan’s routes came from the slot. Yes, McMillan helped a lot of fantasy managers make a playoff push last season, but don’t draft him too early this year now that Godwin is back. 

Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Even if you ignore Andrews’ crushing late-game performance in Baltimore’s AFC Divisional Round defeat, Isaiah Likely out-produced Andrews in both of Baltimore’s playoff games. More usage has to be coming Likely’s way. I also see negative TD regression coming for Andrews. Last season, 35% of his fantasy points came on touchdowns, whereas he averaged only 4.4 PPG in games without a score. The Ravens have also added DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, who led the Kansas City Chiefs in end zone targets during his tenure with KC. Reduced end zone targets will cut Andrews’ production even more. He’s no more than a low-end TE1 for me in 2025.