AUGUSTA, Ga. — The green jacket is now Rory McIlroy's to win ... or lose.
In the span of two days, McIlroy has gone from favorite (entering the tournament) to heartbreak (after seemingly ejecting himself from contention with a pair of back-nine double bogeys in Round 1) to back in the hunt (after a second round 66) to overwhelming favorite (thanks to a second straight 66).
He'll head into Sunday's final round at 12-under par, two shots in front of Bryson DeChambeau and with one massive question hanging over his head: Can he finally end the major drought that's been hanging over his head for more than a decade?
How did we get here after a wild Round 3 at Augusta National? Well ...
How it started
At the start of Round 3, the leaderboard looked like this:
1. Justin Rose -8
2. Bryson DeChambeau -7
T3. Rory McIlroy -6
T3. Corey Conners -6
T5. Matt McCarty -5
T5. Shane Lowery -5
T5. Scottie Scheffler -5
T5. Tyrrell Hatton -5
Less than 15 minutes after the final pairing teed off, it looked like this:
1. Rory McIlroy -9
T2. Justin Rose -8
T2. Bryson DeChambeau -8
T4. Shane Lowery -7
T4. Corey Conners -7
T6. Jason Day -6
T6. Viktor Hovland -6
T6. Scottie Scheffler -6
Less than an hour into Round 3, it looked like this:
1. Rory McIlroy -11
2. Bryson DeChambeau -8
T3. Shane Lowery -7
T3. Justin Rose -7
T6. Jason Day -6
T6. Sungjae Im -6
T6. Scottie Scheffler -6
Win probability entering Round 3
Per Datagolf.com, McIlroy was the probable favorite to win the tournament as Round 3 began, followed by DeChambeau, Scheffler and Rose.
BetMGM odds also pegged McIlroy (+340) as the favorite, also followed by DeChambeau (+360), Scheffler (+400) and Rose (+900).
After McIlroy chipped in for eagle at No. 2, his probability had risen to 36.6%. When he dropped another birdie at No. 5 — giving him the first 3-3-3-3-3 start to a round in Masters history — his probability had ballooned to 60.3%.
