March Madness betting guide: Maryland vs. Colorado State pick, prediction, odds
After the largest win in its NCAA Tournament history, Maryland men’s basketball takes the court again Sunday with eyes on the Sweet 16. The Terps cruised past Grand Canyon, 81-49, on Friday to set up a matchup with No. 12 seed Colorado State on Sunday at 7:10 p.m.
Betting odds suggest the Terps have an ideal opportunity to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16 against the Rams, who have won 11 in a row. Maryland is a 7 1/2-point betting favorite over Colorado State, according to most sportsbooks legally available in Maryland.
Kevin Willard’s team easily covered the 10-point spread in the win over Grand Canyon. Is another double-digit win on the horizon or can Colorado State pull off the upset?
What are the odds?
Maryland is a significant favorite, even with Colorado State riding its 11-game winning streak. The Rams haven’t defeated a team inside the KenPom top 40 during the streak, however, and Maryland ranks 11th.
- Spread: Maryland by 7 1/2 (FanDuel)
- Total: 142.5 points
- Moneylines: Maryland -320, Colorado State +255
The pick
While Colorado State’s do-everything small forward Nique Clifford makes the Rams one of the more dangerous double-digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament, it’s hard to go against Maryland and the “Crab Five.” The Terps’ starting unit was fantastic against Grand Canyon, with Julian Reese and Derik Queen combining for 30 points and 24 rebounds in the post. Guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie added 16 points, and the bench contributed nicely in the blowout.
Maryland looks like a potential Final Four team — although a possible Sweet 16 showdown with Florida would require an elite effort to advance — while Colorado State looks like a capable mid-major nearing the end of its road. There’s a talent gap between the programs, and the Rams have a recent history of flaming out of the NCAA Tournament.
In both 2022 and 2024 under coach Niko Medved, the Rams were bounced from the NCAA Tournament with double-digit losses. The team also lost an NIT game in 2021 by 23 points. When Colorado State drops out of tournament play in recent seasons, it does so with noncompetitive defeats.
This season, the program is 0-4 in games against teams inside the KenPom top 40. Those four defeats have come by an average of 13.3 points. All four of the losses were by at least eight points.
How to watch Maryland vs. Colorado State: March Madness game time, TV, odds and more
Anything can happen in March, but this game sets up well for the Terps. Since the start of February, seven of Maryland’s nine wins have come by at least eight points, as the team looks comfortable blowing out opponents.
After Reese and Queen owned the paint against Grand Canyon (44-16 edge in points in the paint), will Colorado State’s undersized but athletic lineup have enough firepower to keep it close for 40 minutes? It’s doubtful, given the team’s recent NCAA Tournament history and struggles against top-40 teams this season.
The pick: Maryland to cover the spread, winning by eight or more
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The possible path ahead
If Maryland advances, betting odds believe the Terps will meet the top-seeded Florida Gators in next week’s Sweet 16. A moneyline parlay including both the Gators to beat two-time defending national champion UConn and Maryland to beat Colorado State holds odds of -169 on FanDuel.
Should the favorites both advance, it’ll set up a heavyweight class in the Sweet 16.
FanDuel’s odds suggest skepticism about the team’s ability to make a deep run, given the potential challenge of playing such a strong Florida team in the next round. FanDuel gives Maryland -340 odds to make the Sweet 16 — bettors would be wise to wager on the Terps’ moneyline against Colorado State at -320 instead — but +380 odds to reach the Elite Eight. Maryland is +800 to make the Final Four and +1900 to make the national title game. FanDuel lists the Terps at +6000 to win the national championship.
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.
| 2d 12:16 PM ET ago |
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