Leon Draisaitl's Milestone Cements His MVP Case
What is an MVP?
It's easy to get into semantic arguments about the nature of MVP trophies. What makes a player valuable? Is that different from being "most valuable to his team"? Do a player's surroundings and team quality make a difference?
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Here's the thing: it doesn't matter. Any way you slice it, however you conceive of the MVP conversation, Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl is the NHL's most valuable player this year.
With his overtime winner on Friday night, Draisaitl hit the 100-point plateau for the fourth consecutive year and the sixth time in his career. He's just two points behind Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead, and his 49 goals are a whopping 13(!) ahead of second-place William Nylander. That would be the biggest lead any player has had in the goal-scoring race since 1999-00.
Even as the Oilers have struggled recently, Draisaitl is riding a 17-game point streak, during which he's scored 14 goals and 26 points. He leads the league with 10 game-winning goals, and tied the NHL record for overtime goals in a season on Friday with five.
That's the traditional argument for Draisaitl as MVP. Nobody in the league has been more dominant, or more clutch, regardless of what's going on around him. He just keeps ticking.
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If you want some more substance, how about this: Draisaitl has MacKinnon beat in primary points (77 to 73), even-strength points (70 to 69), points per 60 minutes (4.2 to 3.99) and non-empty net points (96 to 89--Draisaitl is infamous for his apparent inability to score on an empty net).
Draisaitl also leads all MVP candidates in on-ice goals share (69.4%), as well as expected goals share (66%). With Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers are generating 5.09 goals per 60 minutes while allowing only 2.62. He has the best xG differential in the league this season, at 58.7.
The Athletic's model pegs him as the best player in the league this season, with a net rating of +30, including an elite +6 defensive rating. He's also the league leader in Goals Above Replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. If anything, the analytical argument for Draisaitl is even stronger than the traditional one.
Finally, we get to maybe the most consequential facet of the MVP debate: narrative.
Narrative rules all MVP debates. It's how Nathan MacKinnon was robbed of his first Hart Trophy by Taylor Hall in 2017-18, and it's how he finally captured it last season. We're watching it in the NBA right now, where Nikola Jokic fatigue might rob the superstar of another well-deserved MVP. Don't even get me started on baseball.
The Oilers have looked shaky for long stretches this season. Their scoring depth is essentially non-existent, especially on Draisaitl's line. Connor McDavid has missed time due to injury and suspension, and hasn't looked quite himself at times.
But Draisaitl hasn't slowed down a bit; to these eyes, he's been the best player on the ice every night, all season long. Without Draisaitl, the Oilers would be in very dire straits, McDavid notwithstanding.
That's not to say that the Colorado Avalanche would be fine without Nathan MacKinnon; they obviously wouldn't, he's Nathan MacKinnon. But Draisaitl has stepped up and found another level when his team needed him most, dominating as a do-it-all workhorse night in, night out.
And he's doing this with precious little help--he's scored more goals (9) since the 4 Nations break than all of his wingers combined (8). While MacKinnon has had Cale Makar and either Mikko Rantanen or Martin Necas, Draisaitl has done much of this next to Vasily Podkolzin and a much-diminished Viktor Arvidsson.
If anything, Draisaitl's biggest competition should be Connor Hellebuyck, who is doing frankly ridiculous things in net for the Winnipeg Jets as they challenge for the President's Trophy.
It's not a landslide, and there's still one crucial month left in the season. But standing at 100 points, with 50 goals on the way, it's hard not to see Leon Draisaitl as the NHL's most valuable player this season.
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