It's not just you, March Madness has been unusually chalky (so far)

The first round of the NCAA men's tournament featured seven upsets, yet it sure feels like we didn't really get any of the madness we were promised this March.

Sure, No. 12 seed McNeese downing No. 5 Clemson was fun — mostly thanks to student manager/master of vibes Amir Khan — but the other 12-5 upset was barely that. No. 12 Colorado State was actually a moneyline favorite in its victory over No. 5 Memphis.

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Which is to say if you left the Round of 64 feeling a little disappointed there wasn't more chaos, you're not wrong. The math actually checks out by a wide margin.

If you add up all the seeds that advanced to the Round of 32, this has been the chalkiest bracket of the last five years so far:

2025: 171
2024: 199
2023: 191
2022: 192
2021: 210

This isn't just taking a 12 seed beating a 5 seed for granted. The 2025 tournament is the first time since 2017 that no seed lower than a 12 has advanced. In 2021 we saw No. 13 Yale defeat No. 4 Auburn and No. 13 Oakland take down No. 3 Kentucky. Those wins felt monumental. In 2023 we not only had a No. 16 seed defeat a No. 1 seed for the second time ever when Fairleigh Dickinson knocked off Purdue, we also had No. 13 Furman stunning No. 4 Virginia and No. 15 Princeton defeating No. 2 Arizona.

Don't get it wrong, there are still plenty of tremendous Cinderella stories left in the 2025 bracket. A No. 11 seed Drake team with a starting five mostly made up of Division II transfers is fascinating. So is McNeese battling despite the fact head coach Will Wade has both feet out the door.

But if the first round this year left you wanting, go ahead and feel vindicated. Or just sit tight. We've only just begun our journey to the Final Four and no one knows what's lurking down this road.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: March Madness math proves it's been so chalky this year

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It's not just you, March Madness has been unusually chalky (so far)

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