There is no doubt that Max Verstappen’s individual brilliance was the critical factor in his first win of the season at Suzuka. It is a track where the man in the cockpit can make the difference and that is exactly what we saw over the weekend.
The McLaren had the fastest car in Japan, but Verstappen put in an astonishing lap in qualifying to sneak pole position and put McLaren on the back foot. Both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were within a few seconds of the Dutchman for the entire race, but it would have taken a Verstappen mistake for McLaren to win it. And, unsurprisingly, the Red Bull driver did not give them a sniff.
There were, however, several other factors in Red Bull’s first win of the season – and only their third in the last 17 races. Other than his talent and supreme confidence in controlling and taming the car beneath him, how did Verstappen defeat a McLaren that looked so comfortable in the previous two rounds?
McLaren’s strength in wrong part of track
Firstly, overtaking is difficult at Suzuka. Beating Verstappen off the line would have been McLaren’s best bet, but that failed. The MCL39 may have had an advantage in the super-fast first sector but there is not a single overtaking opportunity within it. The run down to the hairpin in sector two is possible, but only really if a driver makes a mistake on the exit of the second Degner corner. In reality a move has to come at the final chicane or with DRS down the main straight.
Norris closed up to within DRS range of Verstappen a few times in the race but Verstappen’s exits from the final chicane meant he never got a look-in down the pit straight. Piastri, in third behind his team-mate, had a similar issue even though he believed he was – and appeared – faster than Norris at some points on Sunday.
Strategy shake-up would not have worked
Given the scant overtaking opportunities and Verstappen’s lack of mistakes, the only possibility for McLaren to win the race was with strategy. McLaren’s approach seemed risk-averse at Suzuka. Piastri first pitted from third before Norris and then Verstappen stopped together on the next lap. Aside from an uncharacteristically slow stop for Red Bull and a skirmish at the pit exit, things stayed exactly as they were.
Yet winning the race strategically was a door that was essentially closed. It may seem like it was worth Norris at least trying to undercut Verstappen, or one of them staying out longer on a contrary strategy but it was not. McLaren could see the undercut would not work after Charles Leclerc stopped for fresh rubber and barely improved his lap times.
