How does Scotland's top-six race look with three games to go?

With three matches to go until the Scottish Premiership splits into two, only nine points separate the teams in third and ninth as they fight to squeeze into the top half and potentially secure European football next season.

Even Kilmarnock in 10th have an arithmetic chance of sneaking into the top six. It is a tightly-bunched table and one suspects there will be twists and turns aplenty between now and 12 April.

Heart of Midlothian were the big winners over the weekend, climbing to sixth after a 2-0 win over Ross County - the only team other than Rangers in the top 10 to win.

At the other end of the positivity scale, Dundee United's derby defeat meant they were dragged further into the battle.

Elsewhere, there were draws between Kilmarnock and Hibernian, Motherwell and St Mirren and St Johnstone and Aberdeen.

Scottish Premiership table graphic — [BBC]

How does the split work?

For the uninitiated, Scotland's top flight splits in half after the 12 clubs have played each other three times.

The top six sides then play each other once more, as do the bottom six, taking us to 38 matches played and the final league standings.

The other thing to note is that the teams in each half of the table are set after the split, meaning the team in seventh could theoretically finish on more points than the team in sixth.

Who are all but there?

With third-placed Hibs six points above Motherwell in seventh, and multiple teams in the mix still to play each other, it would take something truly remarkable for the Easter Road side to drop out of the top half.

Opta reckons they are a shoo-in based on the fixtures to come, with home matches against the league's bottom two sides - St Johnstone and Dundee - either side of a trip to Ibrox to face Rangers.

Still, head coach David Gray is taking nothing for granted in the hunt for European football.

"There's no easy games, whether they're home or away, because everyone's got everything to play for still," he said after Saturday's point at Rugby Park. "You look at the league, how tight it is.

"We just talked about that run, 14 games undefeated - yet how tight it still is. We've had to go on that run to put ourselves in this position. So it's all to play for for everyone."

Aberdeen are only a point further back and Opta gives Jimmy Thelin's side a 97.9% chance of finishing in the top six.

They face fellow top-six contenders Motherwell (home) and Ross County (away) before entertaining Rangers.

United, Hearts & Well in charge of their own fate

Dundee United and Hearts occupy fifth and sixth as it stands but will be taking nothing for granted given their remaining fixtures.

Hearts are away to league-leaders Celtic after the international break before crunch matches against United and Motherwell.

United play Ross County and St Johnstone either side of their trip to Tynecastle - the more favourable fixtures on paper.

Motherwell will be desperate to muscle their way into the top six and it is in their hands given they still have to play Hearts.

Michael Wimmer's side are away to Aberdeen and Kilmarnock before that mouth-watering encounter.

Opta - perhaps unsurprisingly - is backing the incumbents to get over the line, but it is not counting Motherwell out. Its model gives the Steelmen a 25.4% chance of moving into the top half.

Who are the long shots?

Kilmarnock's late draw against Hibs just about keeps them in the hunt, but they need to make up seven points on Hearts with matches against St Mirren and Motherwell preceding a visit to Celtic Park.

Three points above them, St Mirren and County have more of a shot, with Opta putting their chances of sneaking into the top half at 9.5% and 4.3% respectively.

Buddies manager Stephen Robinson was left to rue Saturday's match at Fir Park, where his side squandered a two-goal lead.

"Top six is still there, but if we don't win games when we are 2-0 up, we won't be in the top six," he said.

"We go 2-0 up and we're in total control, we don't manage the next five minutes well at all and don't clear the ball for the second goal."

Meanwhile, County boss Don Cowie insisted he is taking it one match at a time when asked about his team's top-six prospects.

"My only focus is Dundee United – the next game that we have in two weeks' time," he said.

"The message has been consistent. We just focus on ourselves and try to get as many points as possible - and that's the next one for us.

"We've been in really good form since Boxing Day really. We thought it was an opportunity to continue that [against Hearts] and we didn't manage to do it."

Topics

Celtic 2-3 Rangers: Scottish Premiership updates – live reaction

Celtic recovered from 2-0 down to draw level with their rivals before Hamza Igamane’s shot found the top corner. Email Taha with your thoughts on the game 3 min: Ooooh, top save from ...
The Guardian - 1d
Weekend Watch: Three More Teams Could Clinch Playoff Spots, NTDP Is On A Roll

Three more USHL teams could clinch playoff spots, while NTDP has a five-game winning streak.
Yahoo Sports - 3d
In the Aaron Rodgers Waiting Game, One N.F.L. Coach Holds the Keys

Three days after becoming a free agent, the four-time M.V.P. remains a quarterback without a team.
The New York Times - 18h
Inter seal huge win at Atalanta to move three points clear at the top

Inter moved three points clear at the top of Serie A with a huge 2-0 win away to fellow title challengers Atalanta in a game that saw both teams end with 10 men. Scorers: Augusto 54', Martínez 87'...
Yahoo Sports - 20h
'Chelsea win round one but Man City retain belief'

One match down, three to go - and it was Chelsea who came out on top against Manchester City to win the League Cup in the first meeting of a quickfire four-game run.
BBC News - 2d
Manager in spotlight: Michael Wimmer

Having won just once in 11 Premiership outings, Motherwell were drifting the wrong way in the table, but suddenly the Fir Park side are back in the top six and looking to win three successive ...
Yahoo Sports - 3d
Three takeaways: Panthers slow Leafs rush game, finding success without key players

The view looks nice from the top.
Yahoo Sports - 3d
The Dundee derby in numbers

Six places and 13 points separate Dundee United and Dundee in the Scottish Premiership going into a key derby at Tannadice.
Yahoo Sports - 1d
Three teams could end the day level at the top of Serie A after Napoli draws at Venezia

Napoli missed the chance to go top of Serie A ahead of the highly anticipated clash between league leader Inter Milan and title rival Atalanta later Sunday. Napoli could only draw 0-0 at ...
Yahoo Sports - 1d

How does Scotland's top-six race look with three games to go?

How does the split work?

Who are all but there?

United, Hearts & Well in charge of their own fate

Who are the long shots?

Topics

Related

Celtic 2-3 Rangers: Scottish Premiership updates – live reaction

Weekend Watch: Three More Teams Could Clinch Playoff Spots, NTDP Is On A Roll

In the Aaron Rodgers Waiting Game, One N.F.L. Coach Holds the Keys

Inter seal huge win at Atalanta to move three points clear at the top

'Chelsea win round one but Man City retain belief'

Manager in spotlight: Michael Wimmer

Three takeaways: Panthers slow Leafs rush game, finding success without key players

The Dundee derby in numbers

Three teams could end the day level at the top of Serie A after Napoli draws at Venezia

More from Yahoo Sports

Bucs attached to Scouting Combine star in new mock draft

Braves' Spencer Strider sparkles in 1st spring start as he comes back from Tommy John surgery

Auburn's March Madness 2025 bracket considered the toughest by USA TODAY's Blake Toppmeyer

How to watch the 2025 Valspar Championship on NBC, Golf Channel and more

Premiership to introduce away ends for rugby fans

More in Sports

Antonio vows to return to football after car crash

Bucs attached to Scouting Combine star in new mock draft

Braves' Spencer Strider sparkles in 1st spring start as he comes back from Tommy John surgery

Auburn's March Madness 2025 bracket considered the toughest by USA TODAY's Blake Toppmeyer

How to watch the 2025 Valspar Championship on NBC, Golf Channel and more