This article was first published as the Jazz Insiders newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox each Friday.
Everyone knows that the Utah Jazz have been playing out the 2024-25 season with the hopes of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft (so they can pick consensus top pick Cooper Flagg).
But, since the three teams with the worst record through the regular season all have a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, many fans have been wondering why the Jazz seem to be gunning for the worst overall record. Isn’t bottom three good enough?
No. The worst overall record in the regular season not only guarantees best odds at the No. 1 overall pick, but also ensures that the lowest a team will pick is No. 5.
Using the numbers one through 14, there are 1,001 possible four-number combinations. For the NBA draft lottery, 1,000 of those four-number combinations are assigned to the lottery teams. The three teams with the worst record are each assigned 140 number combinations (14%) and a lower number of combinations are assigned to the other lottery teams.
Ping-Pong balls numbered one through 14 are dropped into a lottery machine and the team with the number combination that matches the first four balls selected is awarded the No. 1 overall draft pick. The team with the next four-ball combination selected gets the No. 2 overall pick, and this continues for the top four picks.
After the top four draft picks are assigned through the lottery, the remainder of the lottery teams are assigned picks five through 14 based on the inverse of regular-season record. This is where the importance of having the worst overall record comes in.
Though the three worst regular-season teams will have the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick (more Ping-Pong combinations than other teams), teams with less favorable odds can jump into the top four. It happens every year.
But, because the fifth pick is awarded to the remaining team with the worst regular season record, that is the lowest possible pick for the team with the worst overall record. That means that the team with the second-worst record will pick no lower than sixth and the third-worst record no lower than seventh in the draft.
But what if two teams have identical records at the end of the season? What are the tiebreakers?
Ties for playoff positioning are determined by a ...
