Where Indiana basketball stands in March Madness bracket projections

Indiana basketball had its opportunities to play its way out of Dayton, either by adding quality wins to its resume, avoiding it altogether, or not making it at all.

The Hoosiers find out Selection Sunday its fate, and another Quad 1 loss in Thursday's Big Ten tournament second-round game to Oregon completed IU's resume: No bad losses with a 4-13 Quad 1 record and going 15-0 against Quads 2-4. A NET rating of 54 and strength of schedule of 30 are good, but a nonconference strength of schedule of 158 is among the worst of fellow bubble teams.

Though potential thieves, stealers of NCAA tournament bids, haven't exactly put their masks on. Boise State excluded, though, as the Broncos beat San Diego State, Mountain West regular-season champ New Mexico and reached the league tournament title game against Colorado State.

The surging Broncos led to a bubble slide, first IU but also North Carolina and Texas, out in ESPN's bracketology, ESPN's Joe Lunardi wrote, "In other words, the wait for bubble teams such as North Carolina, Texas and more just got a whole lot harder" at his 3:50 p.m. Saturday update.

But, the Hoosiers figured to be in according to Bracket Matrix's Saturday scrub, which incorporates the late Friday night bracketology. IU was in the First Four on 88 of 112 brackets pulled. But, again, that was as of Friday night. Other bubble teams included San Diego State (104 in), Texas (66 in), Xavier (48 in), North Carolina (46 in), Colorado State (30 in), Ohio State (5 in) and UC-Irvine (2 in) — the accuracy issue being Colorado State is the highest MWC team remaining, thus designated an automatic qualifier Saturday and Boise State as an at-large, which it was in for 61 brackets as a 12 seed.

True to seeding, the Rams won, and Purdue transfer Ethan Morton had a career high in what may keep the Hoosiers out. But Lunardi's update shy of 9 p.m. had IU back in the field in favor of the Broncos.

And so at 6 p.m. Sunday, or more accurately an hour window, the Hoosiers await their fate: Destination Dayton or turning the page on the Mike Woodson era, though a bid to one of the other postseason tournaments could extend it.

Dan Gavitt, NCAA senior vice president of basketball, said Saturday evening on CBS that the selection committee only had four more at-large bids to select. IU, surely being discussed. Then, evidently calling in from Carmel, offered a nugget that left the door open, potentially for Indiana, or North Carolina or another bubble team that seemingly discounted the metrics used.

NCAA Senior VP of Basketball Dan Gavitt:

"Not all Quad 1 games are the same... There are high Quad 1 games and lower Quad 1 games. Games played away from home are particularly important to the Committee... Quad 2 games are also a significant factor..." #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/M4xPB8ZZx3
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) March 15, 2025

And those who want the Hoosiers into the field have good news: Potential bid thieves have not taken advantage of a weak bubble. The seemingly lone opportunity Sunday is if Memphis were to lose in the AAC tournament championship game.

Here are how bracketologists view Indiana's fate.

Will Indiana basketball make the NCAA Tournament? Where Hoosiers sit in bracketology

ESPN: Last team in, playing in First Four

CBS Sports: Last four In, playing in First Four

USA Today: First four out

Delphi Bracketology: First four out

On3: First four out

5-star bracketology: Last four in, playing in First Four

1-3-1 Sports: Last four in, playing in First Four

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana March Madness bracket predictions for 2025 NCAA tournament

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