Can Scotland's 'France-lite' thwart Les Bleus and hand England title?

Guinness Six Nations 2025: France v Scotland

Venue: Stade de France, Paris Date: Saturday, 15 March Kick-off: 20:00 GMT

Coverage: Listen live on BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio Scotland Extra & BBC Sounds, live text coverage and highlights on BBC Sport app & website

When thinking about Scotland's prospects of turning the awe-inspiring, championship-chasing Les Bleus to a sickly shade of green on Saturday night in Paris, a scene from Dumb and Dumber comes to mind.

Lloyd quizzing Mary about the precise nature of his unrequited love. "What are my chances?" he asks. "Not good," says Mary. "Not good, like one out of a hundred?" he wonders. "I'd say, more like one out of a million," Mary replies.

Cue Lloyd, euphoric: "So… you're telling me there's a chance?" Well, yes, but…

It's not just the main protagonists who have skin in this Six Nations finale, of course.

England will be all over it presuming they put Wales away earlier in the day. If they falter then Irish eyes will be like saucers, but only if they've done a job on Italy first.

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend says that the rugby world will be glued to their screens on Saturday night - and he's probably right. France are so watchable, so compelling, so vulnerable at Twickenham and so imperious in Dublin. They're a drama unto themselves.

Everybody loves a flawed genius and here it is in team form. How could such a collection of stellar players only have a championship to win on Saturday night instead of a Grand Slam? The loss to the English is incomprehensible and yet that flakiness adds to France's appeal. They're an eminently loveable lot.

It's not just the creative majesty of their team that captivates, it's the terrible beauty of their 7-1 bench, an idea borrowed from the Boks but, somehow, more impressive when France do it.

Why do we love them? For their collective class - they need four tries to set a new Six Nations try-scoring record. For their individual excellence - Damian Penaud has 12 (or twelve, as the old vidiprinter would present it) tries in his past five games for club and country, with the young maestro Louis Bielle-Biarrey scoring a ridiculous 23 in his past 20.

The Bordeaux flyer has scored 17 tries in 18 Tests. Frankly, it's ludicrous.

What else? For the moments that only great players can deliver - Bielle-Biarrey, again, going for a record-busting eighth try in a single Six Nations. For the absent genius - Antoine Dupont. And for the unsung dogs of war - Thibaud Flament in the second-row, Paul Boudehent in the back-row, just two of their many heavies who can bang and who can play.

France have won their past three Six Nations Tests against Scotland and have won 20 of the last 25 between the sides. They're roaring hot favourites, but what about the Scots? One out of a hundred? One out of a million? A chance?

They can be brilliant and they can be brutal, they can be lethal and they can be wasteful. In a sense, they're France-lite.

They make Jekyll and Hyde look uncomplicated; at times pure thoroughbreds, the Frankel of rugby and, at other times, self-destructive, the Devon Loch of the age.

Shaun Edwards is far too wily to listen to the chat about France being racing certainties. He didn't become one of the most influential coaches of modern times by being a mug.

Edwards will approach Scotland in the manner of a bomb disposal expert making safe an unexploded device. He knows that danger lies within this team and it has to be neutralised. He knows that Scotland, on their very best day, are mad enough to make an almighty game of this.

It was a battle last year at Murrayfield and Scotland thought they'd won with a late Sam Skinner try, only for the officials to moonwalk back from a correct call that would have given them victory.

It was a battle the year before in Paris, when Scotland fell 19-0 behind after 18 minutes but then rallied magnificently to make it 25-21 after 67 minutes. That 50-minute spell - 21-6 to the visitors - was among the most scintillating of the entire Townsend era.

A late misfire out of touch cost them - Gael Fickou sealed it soon after - but that was a scary experience for France. You win your opponent's respect when you take them to the wire the way Scotland did that day.

And on other days. During the Covid spring of 2021, Scotland won in Paris. They weren't supposed to. They hadn't won in France in 12 attempts, going back to when Townsend was in his pomp as a player, but they did that night.

Duhan van der Merwe scored the winner, one of 32 tries he has scored in 48 Tests. Darcy Graham is on the opposite wing on Saturday. Graham has 30 tries in 45 Tests. The pair of them are the finest wing combination in probably the finest Scotland backline there's ever been.

The case for Scotland delivering a scare can be stretched out a little. With Finn Russell, Huw Jones and Tom Jordan all wondrous attackers, they can score from anywhere, that much has been long-established.

Under Townsend, Scotland have had a ton of possession and territory in most of their games against France. In six out of the seven championship games, Townsend's team have had more attacking minutes than France. On occasion, a lot more.

They have three wins and four losses against France in the Six Nations. Throw in World Cup warm-ups and it's five wins and seven losses.

Three of France's victories have been by a score. Only rarely have the French taken the Scots to the cleaners while Townsend has been in charge.

Statistics suggest a close enough contest, but the evidence of our eyes pretty much takes us in the opposite direction. If Scotland play as they have been playing, they will score some wonder tries but won't have the horses to live with France when the power comes on.

And, when that power comes on and pulls Scotland this way and that, enter the French assassins behind the scrum - all clever angles and deception, outrageous vision and ruthless execution.

In the recent past, Scotland have shown an impressive capacity to stay in the fight and make life difficult for France.

This is a different team and a different time, though. Under the disco lights at the Stade de France, Paris is ready to party.

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Can Scotland's 'France-lite' thwart Les Bleus and hand England title?

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