Bat Speed Risers and Fallers: Breakouts coming for Pete-Crow Armstrong and Ryan Mountcastle?

Last year, Statcast gave us some fun new toys to play with when they dropped their Bat Speed Leaderboards. At the time, we discussed that bat speed had a close correlation to power, with every 1 mph of bat speed earning you approximately six more feet of distance on a batted ball. Now that we have multiple years of data on it, we can more easily see who is coming into the 2025 season with more offensive potential than they demonstrated in the past.

Thanks to Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List, we have this awesome chart on bat speed risers and fallersfor early 2025 action that I encourage you to peruse in detail. What Kyle has also added are columns to show the potential added run value and home run value of each hitter's swing. For example, Brice Turang adding 3 mph to his bat speed is great, but it doesn't bring as much potential run value or power value as Brett Baty adding three mph to his swing since Baty is still swinging six mph faster, etc.

Run value chart

Before we dive into the leaderboard itself, I should just note that seeing a player on here does not automatically mean they're in for a breakout season. It's nice for players to gain bat speed because that's a crucial part of offensive success, but bat speed won't help with swing decisions or a hitter's approach or anything else that can factor into success. Some guys with faster swings also need to recalibrate their contact point, and that takes some time to get used to.

We also don’t have any clear data of when this stat stabilizes. Much like fastball velocity, velocity stats tend to stabilize quicker because players are taking their A swings often and doing it many times a game. So these numbers may changes but I think they’re still actionable now. Yet, this is not a waiver wire column where you're running to add the players who gained bat speed or cut the ones who lost it. This is just a starting point for a larger discussion.

Aaron Judge
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