B1G Observations in Indy

Purdue Boilermakers forward Camden Heide (23) catches a pass Thursday, March 13, 2025, during the Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament game against the USC Trojans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

The Big Ten Tournament is in full swing and we have had some fun in Indianapolis with seven games in two days so far. Here are some observations as we head into Friday’s session with the top four teams taking the floor for the first time.

Bubble Burst?

If ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is to be believed there is not a lot to play for going forward in terms of getting additional teams in the tournament. As of 6pm last night he has the following eight teams in the field:

Michigan State

Michigan

Maryland

Wisconsin

UCLA

Purdue

Oregon

Illinois

Those happen to be the eight teams that are still playing, as the chalk has mostly held here going into the quarterfinals. Each of those schools are also locks according to the ESPN Bubble Watch as well.

That leaves Indiana and Ohio State as the teams currently on the Bubble from the league, and both don’t have a great case. The Buckeyes have a NET rating of 41, but they were under .500 in the Big Ten, are barely above .500 overall, and they lost all the way back on Wednesday to Iowa. They also lost twice to Indiana, who finished ahead of them in the standings. I think that makes it unlikely they get in.

That leaves Indiana. The Hoosiers are about as bubbly as you can get. The overall record is a respectable 19-13 and they have some very good wins, including one at Michigan State. They are also 4-13 against Tier 1 of the NET. They don’t have any bad losses, but they don’t have a lot of really good wins, either. One of their Tier 1 wins came at Penn State, a team that didn’t even make the Big Ten Tourney.

That’s going to make for a very long wait until Sunday evening. Lunardi has the Hoosiers as the first team out, and each potential bid thief hurts them more and more. What happens if UC-Irvine beats UC-San Diego in the Big West final? The Tritons have a decent at large case and would be 27-5 overall with a top 40 NET should that happen. There is also still potential for some surprise winners in other conferences with locks like the American, the ACC, and more.

I would not want to be in Indiana’s shoes right now. They can do nothing more for their profile and they are looking at a trip to Dayton at best. I would bet their Bubble has burst especially with so many other teams that can play their way in still.

Is Fran Done?

Tom Izzo and Matt Painter are the longest tenured coaches in the conference. They are not going anywhere unless they choose to right now. The next longest tenured coach is Fran McCaffery, who may have coached his final game in Iowa City.

McCaffery has been at Iowa for 14 years, but has never made it past the first weekend of the tourney. They are just kind of… there. The Hawkeyes the 3.6 roentgen of teams (not great, but terrible) for a while. In fact, they are often the Wario to Iowa football (great on offense, horrible on defense).

If yesterday was McCaffery’s final game he left it as he left many: with a double technical and an ejection. Admittedly, it was a weak ejection, but he is known for his antics. That reputation played a role in him getting run.

Ben Johnson has already felt the axe fall. We all know Mike Woodson is gone in Bloomington. Will McCaffery be next?

Who Can Make a March Run

The conference might get just eight teams in, but they are eight teams that are solidly in. That means we should have a pretty good day of basketball today with the remaining teams evenly balanced.

The downside is that each team is flawed, and I don’t think there is a true national contender in the bunch.

Michigan State – The Spartans have the best overall record and 12 Tier 1 wins. They are probably going to get a two seed regardless of what happens in Indy. They are also an excellent defensive team, which can keep them in every game. That said, they are a pretty terrible team shooting the three. That can spell trouble later.

Michigan – The Wolverines have been really lucky in close games. They went 14-6 in their conference games, but ELEVEN of those wins were decided by five points or less. They have also lost three in a row headed into tonight’s game with Purdue.

Maryland – If I had to pick a team to make a run it would be the Terrapins. They have been playing some really good basketball of late and have shown the most improvement of anyone since the start of the season.

UCLA – The Bruins are a yo-yo team. They beat Michigan State, but lost to Minnesota and Rutgers. I just don’t think they have the consistency to make a run.

Wisconsin – Another pretty good team, but losing at home to Penn State is not a good look. They feel like a team that could make the second weekend and lose in the Sweet 16 or lose a 5/12 game.

Purdue – Purdue is capable of beating almost any team in the country. Their wins over Alabama and look excellent right now. That said, this team has a fatal flaw in that the interior defense is atrocious at times. Purdue lost four games where it held a double digit second half lead. You have to wonder where this team would be right now if it had Daniel Jacobsen for his defensive presence alone. The good news is he will return next year, and plugging him in for Caleb Furst in the lineup is an improvement.

Illinois – The Illini are a better version of Iowa. They can drop 100 on pretty much anyone and that offense is explosive. The defense, however… They also can struggle from three.

Oregon – The Ducks have a lot of raw talent, but I feel like they are like UCLA in that the extensive travel all year has worn on them. They are capable of causing some havoc.

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