Auburn defeated Michigan State on Sunday to enter one of the most challenging Final Four fields in recent memory. Auburn joins Florida, Duke, and Houston in San Antonio, Texas, for the final weekend of the college basketball season. Each remaining team holds at least a +35 efficiency margin and a top-10 ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency according to the popular analytics website, KenPom.
Auburn's first game in the Final Four will be against the Florida Gators in a bout between No. 3 and No. 4 in KenPom. The Gators hold the advantage on offense with a projected output of 129.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranks No. 2 in KenPom behind Duke. Auburn is the better defensive team according to KenPom by holding opponents to 92.3 points per 100 possessions, ranking No. 8. How does KenPom see this game shaking out?
According to the latest data from Thursday morning, Florida has a slight edge with a 52% chance to beat Auburn and advance to the NCAA Tournament championship game to face Duke, which has a 57% chance to beat Houston.
Saturday's game between Auburn and Florida will feature the two fastest teams in the field, with both teams projected to build at least 68 possessions per game. Auburn is also the luckiest team in the field, according to KenPom, by winning more games than its efficiency output and No. 2 strength of schedule would suggest.
Auburn holds the edge in both two-point and three-point shooting percentage, with Florida besting Auburn in free throw percentage. In point breakdown, 34% of Florida's points come from three-point territory, while Auburn's two-point connections make up 49% of its points.
Auburn needs to win the free-throw battle and limit the Gators' success in three-point shooting to escape with a victory. The Tigers and Gators will battle on Saturday at 5:09 p.m. CT on CBS at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: KenPom favors Florida in Final Four matchup with Auburn
