There's no such thing as a truly safe pick in the NFL draft.
With so many variables at play as players make a sizable jump in their careers, the trajectory for every prospect comes with little certainty. But whether it's due to subpar production or unrealized potential, several future picks annually stand out from their peers by sparking particularly divisive evaluations. It's up to team decision-makers, then, to weigh their risk tolerance against the payoff for any particular player, who can either make franchises look foolish either for drafting them or passing on them.
With this year's class igniting several notable debates among big-name players, here are the 10 biggest boom-or-bust prospects in this year's NFL draft, ranked by just how much risk – and upside – they entail:
10. Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech
As a likely mid-round draft pick, Tuten might not be as risky as other players who will necessitate a heavier investment of draft capital. But the volatility in his game is readily evident.
A transfer from North Carolina A&T, the former track star averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season and ripped off the fastest 40-yard dash time (4.32 seconds) of any running back at the NFL Scouting Combine. Not just an outstanding linear athlete, Tuten can keep runs alive by making defenders miss in the open field and fighting through contact.
But it should come as no surprise that a player with singular explosiveness has a problem with patience. Rather than letting blocks develop in front of him, Tuten too often is content to bounce the play to the outside. That approach won't be tenable at the next level, so the 5-9, 206-pound ball carrier will need to be more decisive and take what's given to him on the inside. If he can manage that, he could stay on the field regularly while making his mark as one of the league's pre-eminent big-play threats. But if he struggles to adapt – or continues to be plagued by fumbles – he might end up as an all-or-nothing runner.
9. Shavon Revel Jr., CB, East Carolina
If not for a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered in September, Revel could easily be in the conversation for the first round. The 6-2, 194-pounder evokes comparisons to Richard Sherman and Antonio Cromartie as a smothering coverage presence who's at his most comfortable jockeying with receivers, whether that's at the line of scrimmage or the catch point. Between his hyperphysical approach and penchant for finding the ball, Revel can handle either zone or man assignments.
But even though Revel is expected to be ready in time for training camp, his injury can't be ignored. Beyond sparking concerns about his ability to stay on the field, it also robbed him of the opportunity to polish his game. Like most taller corners, Revel has lapses when he can get too upright, leaving him susceptible to being shaken in man coverage by quicker receivers. And with a significant jump in quality of competition ahead, flags could follow him early if he doesn't dial back his handsy approach.
8. James Pearce Jr., DE, Tennessee
A fixture of way-too-early mock drafts one year ago, Pearce now might be teetering on the edge of the first round. What happened? The 6-5, 245-pounder hardly disappointed last season, notching his second consecutive first-team All-Southeastern Conference honor after tallying 13 tackles for loss and 7 ½ sacks. Rather, Pearce's final showings only underscored the ways in which he would come to be seen as a polarizing prospect for teams.
There's no questioning Pearce's explosiveness off the line of scrimmage, which allows him to zip past blockers or jolt them back when they're on their heels. Yet that same aggressiveness at the start of his ...
