2025 NCAA tournament: What you need to know about the Midwest region
[What to know about each region: South | East | West]
With the 2025 NCAA men's tournament upon us, here's everything you need to know about the Midwest region.
Who are the favorites?
No. 1 Houston (+600 to win the national title at BetMGM)
No. 2 Tennessee (+1800)
No. 3 Kentucky (+4000)
Houston has the highest odds of any No. 1 seed, while Tennessee and Kentucky could meet in the Sweet 16 if seeds hold. That’s what happens when a conference gets 14 teams into the tournament. High-seed matchups in the third round of the tournament are inevitable.
No. 8 Gonzaga is the No. 4 favorite in the region at +5000, ahead of Clemson at +6000 and Purdue at +8000.
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When will the No. 1 seed go down?
It’s the third straight season that Houston has been a No. 1 seed. Can the Cougars finally get past the Sweet 16? Houston has lost in the Sweet 16 in each of the past two seasons and both times it’s because the Cougars have had bad shooting nights. In 2023, Houston shot just 38% from the field in loss to Miami. In 2024, the Cougars were just 41% from the field in their 54-51 loss to Duke.
But to get to the Sweet 16, Houston would potentially have to get past Gonzaga. The Bulldogs haven’t been worse than a No. 5 seed since 2016 and haven’t lost before the Sweet 16 in an NCAA tournament since they fell in the second round as a No. 8 seed in 2010.
Gonzaga is one of the best offensive teams in the country and could pose a problem to the Cougars if Houston’s lockdown defense doesn’t slow the Bulldogs down. If the Cougars get to the second weekend, we like their chances of getting to the Final Four.
Who is the Cinderella of the region?
Gonzaga doesn’t count as a Cinderella for this exercise. McNeese is an intriguing candidate. The Cowboys are back in the tournament as a No. 12 seed after losing to Gonzaga a year ago as a No. 12 seed. This year, McNeese draws Clemson.
We’ll go with Utah State, a team looking to make it to the third round of an NCAA tournament for the first time since 1970. The No. 10 Aggies draw No. 7 UCLA in the first round and could put a scare into Tennessee in the second round.
Biggest upset of the region?
Don’t be surprised if Texas or Xavier gives Illinois a run in the first round. The Musketeers and Longhorns play Wednesday for the right to face the Illini on Friday. Texas snuck into the tournament with a 19-15 record thanks to the strength of the SEC. The Longhorns are led by star freshman guard Tre Johnson while Xavier’s Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell combine to average 34 points per game.
Players to watch
Houston G L.J. Cryer
Cryer was a first team All-Big 12 selection and is averaging over 15 points per game for the third consecutive season. He’s also shooting over 40% from the 3-point line for the third season in his five-year career with the Cougars. Houston last made the Final Four when Cryer was a freshman in 2021. If the Cougars get back, he’ll be a big reason why.
Tennessee G Chaz Lanier
The Volunteers’ leading scorer averages 18 points per game and has been excellent over the second half of the season. He dropped 30 in a win at Texas A&M and had 23 to open the SEC tournament in a victory over Texas. Lanier shoots over 40% from behind the arc and 82% from the free throw line.
Purdue G Braden Smith
The Big Ten player of the year averages 16 points and nine assists a game while shooting over 38% from behind the 3-point line. Smith has nine double-doubles this season and also has two 30-point games. The Boilermakers’ offense looks a lot different without Zach Edey in the paint, but this Purdue team is still very capable of making a deep NCAA tournament run.
Who makes it to San Antonio?
A matchup between Houston and Tennessee in the Elite Eight would be phenomenal. But it may not be very easy on the eyes. The first team to 60 — or maybe even 50 — would win in a battle of two of the best defenses in the country.
Assuming Houston can snap Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 streak, we like the Cougars to get to San Antonio. This team is a better shooting one than the last two times Houston was a No. 1 seed. That could be the difference.
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