What to know about the Florida special primary elections on Tuesday

Florida will hold two special election primaries on Tuesday to replace President Trump’s national security adviser Mike Walz in the sixth congressional district and former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) in the first congressional district.

The winners of each primary will likely go on to win in the special general elections, which are slated for April 1. President Trump has endorsed Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Fla.), who are both considered favorites in the sixth and first districts, respectively.

Here’s what to watch in Florida’s special election primaries on Tuesday.

Seats will give Republicans more room to maneuver the House

Gatez’s resignation from Congress and Waltz’s appointment to the Trump administration helped bring Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) already slim majority down to 218 Republicans to 215 Democrats. And with Trump’s UN ambassador pick Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) expected to be confirmed, that majority would drop to 217.

While Republicans are favored to win the seats, the slim majority leaves Johnson with little wiggle room as he seeks to support Trump’s agenda in the House. In the meantime, all 218 Republican lawmakers must be in lockstep in order to pass legislation.

The problem for Johnson is that there are some cracks in Republican unity. House GOP leadership is already working to balance Trump’s agenda wish list with demands from Republican fiscal hawks for legislation to be deficit neutral or deficit reducing. At least two more Republican seats filled with Republicans who have been backed by Trump could give Johnson more room to push the agenda through.

Trump has weighed in

Patronis and Fine both launched their bids after Trump publicly urged both of them to run in their respective districts last November.

Following Trump’s endorsement of Patronis in the first congressional district, a number of formerly announced candidates for the seat quickly dropped out of the race and backed Patronis. However, state Rep. Joel Rudman (R) is still running in the primary.

Fine, who is the only Jewish Republican serving in Florida’s state legislature, made waves in the 2024 Republican presidential primary when he became the first Florida lawmaker to switch his endorsement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to Trump. Fine said he did so because Trump’s actions demonstrated his support for the Jewish community.

Republicans favored to win in general election

Whoever wins Tuesday’s primaries will be heavily favored going into April’s general elections given the strong conservative lean of both districts.

The first congressional district, which is one of the most conservative in the state, encompasses Florida’s western panhandle. It includes Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and parts of Walton counties. Gaetz won the district in November with 66 percent of the vote.

The sixth congressional district is located on the other side of the state along the East Coast. It stretches from Jacksonville to the Daytona Beach area. Waltz won reelection in November with just over 66 percent of the vote.

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