Valadao treads lightly on Medicaid as Obamacare vote haunts him

Rep. David Valadao’s vote to repeal Obamacare may have cost him his seat in 2018. He’s not eager to repeat that mistake.

The Republican representative, whose Central Valley district is being bombarded with TV ads pressuring him not to slash Medicaid, is parrying the Democratic-led campaign by withholding his support for a House resolution to cut at least $1.5 trillion from the federal budget — a goal that would be impossible to meet without reductions to the popular health care program.

On Wednesday, he publicly pushed Speaker Mike Johnson not to slash the benefit in a letter signed by seven other House Republicans representing Latino-heavy districts.

“It's a little bit more of a sticky conversation for Congressman Valadao,” his former chief of staff Tal Eslick, now a top consultant in the Central Valley, told Playbook. “From the perspective of [Democrats], it's a great attack, and any claims they can make about House Republicans attacking that program will probably be pretty effective with voters.”

It’s crucial for Valadao — who since his loss has survived several bruising campaigns to narrowly hold his inland California seat — to defend himself against health care-related attacks. Nearly half his district’s residents are enrolled in Medicaid, according to 2023 data.

That’s by far the highest proportion of any district in the state, including other frontline Republicans who are being targeted over the prospect of cuts. Just 12 percent of residents of Rep. Young Kim’s are enrolled in Medicaid, while 21 percent of people in Rep. Ken Calvert’s district use the program.

Valadao recently said he was not alone in his caucus in expressing concern about the House GOP spending plan, and that he would hold back support while he seeks information on the severity of the cuts and how they would impact his constituents.

“There’s at least double digits of people who are severely concerned,” Valadao told the Hill. “And I think as people start to understand the specifics of how it’s going to affect their districts, I imagine that number grows.”

President Donald Trump has given his party’s frontliners some cover to oppose cuts. He told reporters last month he would “love and cherish” Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. He told Fox News in an interview that aired Tuesday night: “Medicare, Medicaid, none of that stuff is going to be touched.”

But Wednesday, on his social media network Truth Social, Trump endorsed the House spending blueprint that would require Medicaid spending be reduced by billions of dollars — placing vulnerable lawmakers back in a tight spot.

Since his return to Congress in 2021, Valadao has been almost invincible politically, fending off challenges from his right flank after he voted to impeach Trump and surviving last fall’s onslaught even as Democrats flipped three California House seats.

Health care has been his glaring vulnerability.

Anti-Republican campaigns including Protect Our Care and the labor-backed Fight for Our Health that are running their 2018 playbook needling him over health care. They’re already running the TV ads, putting up billboards and holding town halls in his district urging against Medicaid cuts.

Valadao clearly felt political pain after his vote for the House GOP legislation, even if it never became law.

“I’ve had people come to my office and say: ‘Did you take away my health care with this vote?’” he told POLITICO in 2017.

Seventeen months later, he lost his seat.

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