Ukraine's fate hinges on US need to drive a wedge between Russia and China again
Former President Joe Biden left President Trump a mess in Ukraine, with Russian forces continuing to occupy one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and advancing along the front lines. The U.S. faces diminishing options after three years of deepening entanglement in a brutal war that has devastated numerous Ukrainian cities, towns and villages.
The war has distracted America from pressing challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, the world’s emerging economic and geopolitical hub that is poised to shape the new international order. Worse still, China has emerged as the big winner, as the conflict has ensnared NATO and Russia.
China, significantly stronger than Russia in economic output, military spending and other strategic metrics, remains America’s chief global rival. As Biden’s national security strategy acknowledged, China is committed to achieving global dominance by surpassing the U.S. as the foremost world power.
The U.S.-led “hybrid war” and unprecedented sanctions against Moscow have inadvertently strengthened China’s hand, including by making it Russia’s banker. Russia now conducts much of its international trade in Chinese yuan and deposits the proceeds in Chinese banks, effectively granting Beijing a share in its financial returns.
More concerning is China’s strategic maneuvering to co-opt Russia in an unholy alliance against the U.S. Their “no-limits partnership,” declared in 2022, is creating a two-against-one geopolitical competition that threatens to accelerate America’s relative decline through strategic overreach. A formal Sino-Russian military and strategic alliance could produce a pan-Eurasian colossus — America’s worst geopolitical nightmare.
Given this backdrop, the U.S. needs to return to its old grand strategy, which helped the West win the Cold War by driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. Ending the Ukraine war would also enable the U.S. to reallocate military resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, where its global primacy is truly at stake.
Trump’s diplomatic outreach to Moscow — aimed at resolving the Ukraine war, as he promised to do in his campaign — has created not only a furor in some Western capitals but also a toxic and divisive political discourse at home. Even before the efforts to end the war have made any tangible progress, Trump already faces fierce criticism. Opponents accuse him of giving Moscow a free pass and endorsing a “Ukraine sellout.” Some claim he has lifted Russia’s international isolation, despite evidence that the West never succeeded in actually isolating Moscow.
But diplomacy between adversaries is crucial to defuse tensions and prevent direct conflict. Biden firmly shut the door to diplomacy with Russia, prolonging Ukraine’s suffering. Only after a change in U.S. leadership did the American and Russian leaders resume direct communication, agreeing to explore pathways to peace.
Ending the Ukraine war will require a complex and carefully negotiated resolution — one that is “enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all parties,” as Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it. But the political backlash from pro-war factions in the West is making the search for peace even more difficult.
Regardless of how the peace process unfolds, the transatlantic alliance is set for a major transformation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth bluntly told European leaders recently to take “responsibility for [their] own security” so that the U.S. can focus on “deterring war with China.” Consequently, tens of thousands of American troops currently stationed in Europe may be redeployed to the Indo-Pacific.
The European Union, which dutifully followed Biden’s lead in escalating the Ukraine conflict through transfers of increasingly sophisticated weapons, now seeks a role in peace negotiations. But the EU is rudderless and deeply divided, grasping for common ground. Its inclusion would be a drag on the negotiations, which may explain why the U.S. and Russian delegations met not in Europe but in Saudi Arabia.
The fact is that the Ukraine conflict remains in many ways a proxy war between Russia and the U.S., with Ukraine caught in the middle — a pawn in the geopolitical chess game. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has worked to snuff out the country’s nascent democracy through draconian measures, admitted this month that, without America’s continued military aid, it will be “very, very difficult” for Ukraine to “survive.”
By opening direct dialogue with Moscow, the Trump administration has demonstrated both its commitment to ending the war and the marginal role China plays in securing peace in Ukraine. The only nation that benefits from prolonging the war is China, which has more than doubled its nuclear arsenal since 2020 and is expanding its conventional forces faster than any other country has since World War II.
Trump’s decision to extricate America from the Ukraine conflict aligns with long-term U.S. strategic interests. The war, through the flood of Western arms supplies to Kyiv, has exposed the West’s military shortcomings, such as its depleted stocks of critical munitions and air defense systems, as well as America’s struggle to ramp up weapons production.
As Biden himself acknowledged, a “negotiated settlement” is the only viable path to ending the war. A U.S.-Russia peace deal must be reached before Beijing and Moscow can cement a strategic axis that erodes America’s global primacy and increases Taiwan’s vulnerability. A Chinese annexation of Taiwan would reshape the global order, ending America’s global preeminence and undermining its alliance system.
Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books, including the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground.”
-
China supports 'recent consensus' between US and Russia on Ukraine war, foreign minister says
China supports “the recent consensus” between the U.S. and Russia on the war in Ukraine, said Wang Yi, the country’s foreign minister, amid ongoing discussions about bringing an end to the nearly ...The Hill - 3d -
Russia and US could meet again within weeks to discuss Ukraine, Moscow says – Europe live
Moscow and Washington held their first talks on ending the nearly three-year war in Ukraine on Tuesday. Donald Trump’s shocking and mendacious attack this week on the Ukrainian president, ...The Guardian - 2d -
US, Russian officials to meet again within 2 weeks to discuss Ukraine war: Russia
U.S. and Russian officials will meet again within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine after re-establishing diplomatic relations this week, Russia says.ABC News - 2d -
Is China investable again?
It always was — at the right price and for those with eyes wide open to the economic downsideFinancial Times - 15h -
US votes against UN resolution condemning Russia for Ukraine war
The U.S. voted against a resolution condemning Russia as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine that passed the United Nations General Assembly on Monday, marking three years since Russia’s launched ...The Hill - 2h -
Former UN ambassador warns of potential repercussions of Russia-Ukraine rhetoric on China, Taiwan
Former United Nations ambassador Susan Rice warned that President Trump’s actions with ending the Russia-Ukraine war could have potential repercussions with China and Taiwan. Rice joined MSNBC’s ...The Hill - 16h -
Musk may be the wedge Democrats need to separate Trump from his working-class base
Elon Musk is dominating the media and the political landscape, with his influence over President Trump and his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) raising concerns about his ...The Hill - 1d -
Rare Minerals Deal Between U.S., Ukraine Progressing
U.S. officials have pressured Ukraine to provide access to its rare earth minerals as a form of compensation for aid.Inc. - 16h -
Preparations under way for meeting between Trump and Putin, Russia says
Russian and US leaders will meet face to face in move towards normalising relations, deputy foreign minister says. Preparations for a face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin ...The Guardian - 2d -
China’s private sector needs more than warm words
Reviving the nation’s animal spirits will require consistent efforts to win investors’ trustFinancial Times - 1d -
Ukraine or Russia: Whose Side Is Trump On?
Nick asks former UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt.BBC News - 4d -
Italy’s Meloni torn between supporting Ukraine and pleasing Trump
Prime minister opts out of G7 call as dream of mediating between US and Europe fadesFinancial Times - 3d -
Tesla’s stock is back to red: Why China full-self-driving boost was short-lived
Tesla shares are trading about 30% below a December high as concerns about Elon Musk and DOGE swirl.MarketWatch - 2h -
As Trump Courts Putin, China’s Leader Xi Emphasizes Close Ties With Russia
The Chinese and Russian leaders reaffirmed their relationship in a video call on Monday, an apparent rebuff to the idea that the Trump administration could drive a wedge between them.The New York Times - 3h -
Xi says China, Russia true friends as Trump pursues Putin talks
Chinese leader Xi Jinping says China and Russia are true friends after speaking on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Xi reportedly said history and reality show the two countries are ...The Hill - 39m -
In reversal, Trump says Russia attacked Ukraine
President Donald Trump reversed course on Friday and said Russia did in fact invade Ukraine, and that Kyiv would soon sign a minerals agreement with the United States as part of efforts to end the ...NBC News - 2d -
Ukraine’s uncertain future on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion
G7 nations gather to discuss an end to the conflict, French and UK leaders meet Trump and Hollywood hosts the OscarsFinancial Times - 1d -
Trump, Macron take questions on Ukraine-Russia war
President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron met at the Oval Office and took questions about the future of Ukraine and the possibility of a deal with Russia. Mr. Trump also took questions ...CBS News - 46m -
Ukraine war briefing: Trump turnaround as he acknowledges Russia invaded Ukraine
US president earlier drew criticism after saying Kyiv ‘should have never started’ war; Trump predicts Ukraine will soon sign minerals deal with US. What we know on day 1,095. Europe live: latest ...The Guardian - 2d -
If we want to win the 5G war with China, we need to fully embrace American capitalism
The race to dominate 5G technology is a decisive battle for economic supremacy in the 21st century. Unfortunately, the U.S. has fallen behind.The Hill - 3d -
The US must protect vital information from enemies like China
Congress should prioritize passage of the DETERRENT Act.The Hill - 1d -
Spain calls for EU to forge China policy without US
‘Europe must take its own decisions’, says foreign minister José Manuel AlbaresFinancial Times - 15h -
Trump says he ‘had very good talks with Putin’ and again criticizes Ukraine – live
US president also accuses Kyiv of talking ‘tough’ but having few bargaining chips in latest remarks in feud with Ukrainian president Zelenskyy. French far-right leader cancels CPAC speech over ...The Guardian - 2d -
Trump calls Zelenskyy a "dictator" after blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion
"A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left," President Trump wrote.CBS News - 4d -
U.S. Objects to Calling Russia ‘Aggressor’ in G7 Statement on Ukraine Invasion
The American opposition to a draft of a Group of 7 statement marking the third anniversary of Russia’s attack on Ukraine comes after President Trump blamed Kyiv for starting the war.The New York Times - 3d -
As Russia Talks Peace, Moscow Threatens New Ukraine Region
Moscow’s forces are three miles from Dnipropetrovsk, a province they have never invaded. If they cross in, the advance would be a morale blow to Ukraine and complicate any territorial negotiations.The New York Times - 3d -
Tens of thousands fighting for Russia dying unnoticed on Ukraine frontline
The Kremlin’s recruitment policy is shielding society from the true impact of war.BBC News - 1d -
Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine on eve of third year of war
The attack came as leaders in Kyiv and across Europe are seeking to navigate rapid changes in U.S. foreign policy under President Trump.CBS News - 1d -
Van Hollen says Trump's approach to Ukraine and Russia is "terrible negotiating"
Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland faulted President Trump for undermining Ukraine in any eventual peace talks with Russia, saying that taking several Ukrainian demands off the table is ...CBS News - 1d -
Two Trump officials decline to say Russia started the war in Ukraine
Two Trump administration officials publicly declined to say Russia started the war in Ukraine in 2022, despite Russia launching a full-scale invasion.NBC News - 1d -
Ella Baron on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – cartoon
Continue reading...The Guardian - 1d -
In Russia, Anniversary of Ukraine War Draws Little Public Mention
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is not scheduled to attend any events on Monday to mark the anniversary of the full-scale invasion that he ordered.The New York Times - 7h -
A British politician is charged with taking bribes to boost Russia's agenda in Ukraine
Yahoo News - 4h -
United Nations rejects shocking U.S. resolution on Ukraine-Russia war
The United Nations General Assembly rejected a U.S. resolution urging the end to the Ukraine-Russia war. The drafted resolution included no acknowledgment of Russian aggression or Ukrainian ...CBS News - 1h -
3 Years Into Russia-Ukraine War, Trump Ushers in New World for Putin
Fresh possibilities have emerged for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with a change of power in Washington.The New York Times - 32m -
Why is Ukraine negotiating a minerals deal with the US?
A minister says nearly all key details have been finalised for a deal giving the US access to the country's minerals.BBC News - 4h -
Europe and US clash over Ukraine in G7 and UN
EU and Trump administration differ over blaming Russia in rival draft resolutionsFinancial Times - 2h -
Top shale boss says US oil companies will not flock back to Russia
Harold Hamm warns executives will be wary of any peace deal between Trump and PutinFinancial Times - 2d -
Trump says US open to forging ‘economic’ deals with Russia
Remarks come after president said Russian counterpart would allow peacekeeping troops in UkraineFinancial Times - 3h
More from The Hill
-
Live updates: Trump suggests Ukraine mineral deal is close; praises Musk 'genius' email
President Trump hosts French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday at the White House, a meeting that comes on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and amid fraying ties between ...The Hill - 23m -
SEC ends investigation into Robinhood's crypto arm
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has closed its investigation into the cryptocurrency arm of Robinhood without taking action against the online brokerage, the company announced Monday. ...The Hill - 24m -
Johnson makes 'prayer request' ahead of critical vote on Trump agenda bill
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) asked for prayers as he prepares to bring the House’s budget reconciliation resolution, the vehicle for President Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda, for a floor vote ...The Hill - 29m -
Nearly 200K sign petition to revoke Musk's Canadian citizenship
Thousands of individuals have signed an online petition urging the revocation of tech billionaire Elon Musk's Canadian citizenship over his involvement in the Trump administration, which the ...The Hill - 32m -
Xi says China, Russia true friends as Trump pursues Putin talks
Chinese leader Xi Jinping says China and Russia are true friends after speaking on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Xi reportedly said history and reality show the two countries are ...The Hill - 39m
More in Politics
-
Live updates: Trump suggests Ukraine mineral deal is close; praises Musk 'genius' email
President Trump hosts French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday at the White House, a meeting that comes on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and amid fraying ties between ...The Hill - 23m -
SEC ends investigation into Robinhood's crypto arm
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has closed its investigation into the cryptocurrency arm of Robinhood without taking action against the online brokerage, the company announced Monday. ...The Hill - 24m -
Johnson makes 'prayer request' ahead of critical vote on Trump agenda bill
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) asked for prayers as he prepares to bring the House’s budget reconciliation resolution, the vehicle for President Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda, for a floor vote ...The Hill - 29m -
Nearly 200K sign petition to revoke Musk's Canadian citizenship
Thousands of individuals have signed an online petition urging the revocation of tech billionaire Elon Musk's Canadian citizenship over his involvement in the Trump administration, which the ...The Hill - 32m -
Xi says China, Russia true friends as Trump pursues Putin talks
Chinese leader Xi Jinping says China and Russia are true friends after speaking on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Xi reportedly said history and reality show the two countries are ...The Hill - 39m