Trump’s foreign policy creates unprecedented global challenges

At the end of the Cold War, a global consensus formed: The U.S., as the world’s sole superpower, would be responsible for ensuring international peace and security, while actively promoting liberal democracy and human rights worldwide.

However, as world leaders found out this weekend at the Munich Security Conference, with the return of President Trump, the post-Cold War consensus is dead.

With its end, an unprecedented set of new challenges now faces both the U.S. and our allies.

Nowhere are these challenges more acute than in Ukraine. As a microcosm of how America’s retreat threatens to upend the U.S.-led world order, the “Trump 2.0” approach to Ukraine is rapidly creating a world that can no longer count on American leadership.

Last week, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and reportedly presented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a proposal to end the three-year-long war, albeit on terms that appear unlikely to bring lasting peace.

According to reports — as well as statements from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — Trump is seeking a peace deal that calls for Ukraine to cede roughly 20 percent of its country to Russia, grant the U.S. access to 50 percent of the country’s rare earth deposits and forgo any hopes of joining NATO.

Moreover, Hegseth made it abundantly clear that American troops will play no part in an international peacekeeping force, a message reinforced by Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellog, who plainly said Europe would have no role in peace talks.

Driving home the point, Hegseth told European defense chiefs that “stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on Europe” and that Ukraine’s return to pre-2014 borders was “unrealistic.”

The administration’s efforts to end America’s role as Europe’s security guarantor are fraying relations between the U.S. and our European allies, a key theme of the Munich conference.

Indeed, after Vice President J.D. Vance admonished European leaders in his speech at the Munich Security Conference, Friedrich Merz — likely Germany’s next chancellor — said that “disagreements between the U.S. and Europe have taken on a completely new quality.”

Across the continent, European leaders got the message.

Ukrainian President Zelensky told the Munich Conference that Europe’s days of guaranteed American support are over, and French President Macron is reportedly calling for a summit to figure out Europe’s next steps absent American leadership.

Trump’s wakeup call to Europe — that they need to stand on their own two feet and can no longer outsource their security to the U.S. — may be seen as an insult, but Europeans bear significant responsibility for the position they’re now in.

For decades, European governments refused to make decisions about how to handle their own national security. They should have been under no illusion about Trump’s intentions.

Nor should they have been surprised when Vance slammed Europe’s incessant crackdowns on what most consider the freedom of speech. As the Wall Street Journal editorial board described Vance’s speech, “the subtext is that if Europeans expect Americans to defend Europe for the sake of democracy, Europe needs to be recognizably democratic.”

In that same vein, Trump is not entirely wrong to figure that the U.S. can no longer wait for Europe to make up their minds on Ukraine. For as much as the Biden administration dithered and slow-walked aid to Ukraine, Germany, France and the United Kingdom have been no better, and arguably were worse.

Nevertheless, for now, the Trump 2.0 foreign policy raises legitimate questions about the future of Europe and of NATO. And, in a world that is rapidly becoming multipolar, it raises questions over the role of America’s alliances and our commitment to those relationships.

"America First" foreign policy will exacerbate Europe’s military and economic vulnerabilities, leaving our NATO allies open to further aggression from Russia and China. In Ukraine specifically, if Trump pursues a deal at any cost — including capitulating to many of Putin’s demands, and putting the responsibility solely on Europe to defend itself — it will severely raise the risk of renewed war in coming years.

Unfortunately, NATO is woefully unprepared to fill the security void left by a retreating U.S., contributing to further destabilization.

Further, there is the very real risk that without American security guarantees, European countries will be unwilling to commit their troops to a Ukrainian peacekeeping force, defanging any potential deal.

It is worth noting that previously, Trump has threatened to increase sanctions on Russia if Putin does not agree to end the fighting, although their impact would be negligible, given that there is a sanction regime already in place.

Similarly, while Trump's foreign policy — especially on Ukraine — is a rejection of traditional American policy, it is difficult to argue it will be less effective than former President Biden's had been.

As Trump proved during his first term, an unorthodox approach to seemingly intractable foreign policy issues can yield results, such as the Abraham Accords.

That being said, we are now in a world in which our allies likely are beginning to feel that they cannot rely on the U.S. to stand by our commitments or uphold the shared values that underpin those alliances.

In turn, the erosion of America’s geopolitical standing will severely undermine our efforts to pursue other foreign policy goals, particularly pushing back against Chinese aggression, or preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Taken together, the withdrawal of American leadership from Europe, embodied by Trump’s approach to Ukraine, has ramifications that will reverberate around the world.

Quite simply, if, as Trump — somewhat justifiably — often claims, the chaotic retreat from Afghanistan made Putin believe he could invade Ukraine without consequences, then America’s much larger retreat from the world stage will empower our enemies everywhere.

Autocrats, freed from their fear of American opposition will seek to subdue neighboring countries, and our allies will doubt whether or not we will come to their aid.

Our leading influence in the international order that the U.S. created will radically diminish, and a world that was already dangerous will become significantly more so.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. Saul Mangel is vice president at Schoen Cooperman Research.

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