There’s no denying it — Europe needs Trump

The European Union needs to update its web page on human rights. The fundamental right to freeload off American defense seems to be missing.

The EU acts like it is entitled to unencumbered American protection, given the responses to President Trump. I guess that’s what happens when the continent that invented the welfare state gets cut off from American welfare. Too bad all the brave talk about separating fully from the U.S. is just that — a lot of talk.

The basic fact of the matter is that Europe has no good alternative to making every attempt to salvage some partnership with America and Trump.

To start, the Europeans need a history lesson. Since 1917, Europe has been bailed out eight times by the U.S., in situations where the continent could have devolved into authoritarianism, chaos, depression and mass mortality. There have been two world wars, massive famine relief in the wake of World War I, the Marchall Plan after the Second World War, the Cold War, the Yugoslav civil war, the 2010-11 Euro crisis and the current war in Ukraine.

And the bill for the U.S. taxpayer has been pretty high. The Marshall Plan alone cost $135 billion (in 2018 dollars). Two world wars add over $4 trillion to the bill (2008 dollars). Post-World War I famine relief was a relatively cheap $4 billion.

It is absolutely true that the U.S. benefited from these interventions, but Europe benefited far more. Consider the 1919-1921 Hoover famine relief program.

Herbert Hoover and the U.S. government used its food aid program to buy excess American grain, with the political objective of limiting the expansion of communism by feeding those in need in Russia. For many in Europe (particularly on the left), ulterior motives cancel out any credit due to America. However, I would suggest a starving child is probably grateful to be fed even if a farmer in Iowa gets a check out of it.

It is difficult to come up with a major security or economic crisis in the past 100 years Europe has successfully handled on its own. Europe could not go three years past the end of the Cold War for it to need American military force and diplomatic mediation to stop the genocidal Yugoslav civil war, for example.

Even the more recent portents are not good for Europe defending itself militarily and economically. EU members are still buying Russian oil and gas. In fact, EU nations have purchased $220 billion in Russian hydrocarbons since the start of the war in Ukraine. And despite sanctions, Russian weapons are packed with European parts and technology (and American, to be fair).

Worst of all, the EU is sitting on over $200 billion in frozen Russian assets. Only now, after more than three years of war and the prospect of the loss of American protection, are Europeans considering tapping into frozen Russian assets — and they still are not planning on liquidating them. What the Europeans can’t (or won’t) figure out is that weakness encourages aggression when it comes to Russia. The failure to cash in Russian assets is a signal Europe is still not serious.

The EU should have learned this lesson when Russia invaded Ukraine. Much of Europe, but mostly Germany, had become dependent on Russian gas. What the Germans saw as a linking of two economies for mutual benefit and the promotion of peace, the Russians clearly saw as energy dependency that would give them free rein for aggression against their neighbors. The Russians certainly miscalculated, but Europe is paying the price.

So where does Europe go now that Trump won’t pay any more bills? It’s hard to see. There has been defiant talk about partnering with China. Good luck with that.

Economically, China and Europe don’t match up. The EU has a 158 billion Euro trade surplus with the U.S. and 176.9 billion surplus overall. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus for 2024 approached $1 trillion, including over 300 billion Euros with the EU — and that deficit has been on an upward trajectory for over 10 years.

Countries with export-dependent economic models make very bad partners — somebody has to absorb the deficit. There could be a match between a natural resource producer and a manufacturer, but that’s not the case here, with both China and Europe relatively resource-poor and focused on manufacturing.

Worse, China has massive manufacturing overcapacity, and its dumping of products has spurred nations in Asia and Latin America to impose selective tariffs. Trump’s general tariffs add to the pain. China also wants to move up the value chain, which means displacing any European companies sitting at the top. Who knows, maybe the EU will agree to buy sophisticated goods from China and Europe will make the cheap stuff they sell on Temu.

Europe could go back to its pre-Ukraine war model of cheap Russian energy propping up its own manufacturing and consumers. Of course, that means ceding Russia a free hand in Ukraine and any other parts of the old Russian Empire Putin wants to grab. That kind of makes the last three years pointless.

To top it all off, Europe and the EU are stuck with a bad currency, an unwieldy bureaucracy and a decision-making process that is simply impossible in a crisis where difficult decisions must be made. The requirement for supermajorities on many votes and a de facto veto for the “Big Four” (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) slows and de-rails the process.

Spain, run by socialists and far from Russia, has very different concerns than Poland, the Baltic states and other “frontline” countries. France and Italy have massive debts, with France barely having a functioning government. In the midst of a panic attack over J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich, the so-called “emergency summit” called by Emmanuel Macron resulted in no agreement.

Europe is an aging continent too dependent on legacy manufacturing. It has been coasting along under the umbrella of American military protection, while ignoring American security concerns with respect to China and Iran. Their leaders and the voters have shown zero willingness to sacrifice and restructure their economies and security arrangements and there is no one ready to bail them out.

The blunt truth is that their best option is to knuckle under to whatever Trump wants. Europe put itself in this position: It deserves no sympathy.

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.

Topics

Europe needs Friedrich Merz to succeed

The first moves by Germany’s chancellor-designate are bold and encouraging
Financial Times - Feb. 24
Europe can’t just hope for the best with Trump. Ukraine needs all the arms we can send | Frans Timmermans

Member states must stop squabbling over trivial matters – and a firmer stance against states that promote Putin’s and Trump’s agenda is needed too. Frans Timmermans is a former vice-president of ...
The Guardian - 6h
Trump administration lawyers deny plans to dismantle consumer watchdog

The Trump administration denied allegations Monday that it aims to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Government lawyers said in a new court filing that the consumer ...
The Hill - Feb. 25
Trump and Europe Clashed Over Ukraine

Also, the virtuoso Roberta Flack died at 88. Here’s the latest at the end of Monday.
The New York Times - Feb. 24
How do we make Europe more secure? Here are five steps we need to take now

Europe can’t wait to react to Trump’s mood swings but must show we have the will and the wallet to take back control. • Ukraine war live . It’s exhausting and humiliating to have no control – ...
The Guardian - 5d
'What Europe needs is a DOGE,' Deutsche Telekom CEO says in impassioned plea for deregulation

Europe needs its own version of what Elon Musk has done with the Department of Government Efficiency in the U.S., according to Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Höttges.
CNBC - 3d
Trump suggests Musk needs to be 'more aggressive'

President Trump suggested in a new post that tech billionaire Elon Musk, one of his closest allies, needs to be “more aggressive" — presumably referring to his efforts to slash spending, downsize ...
The Hill - Feb. 22
Europe’s elite fears Trump, Musk and the truth

The EU's ruling class has become fanatical in its desire to censor.
The Hill - Feb. 21
Europe should hijack Trump’s revolutionary plans for the world

Liberal nationalists must respond with imagination to US policies rather than gripe at being cut out of Ukraine talks
Financial Times - 6d
Europe Is Left With Hard Choices as Trump Sours on Ukraine

European leaders have been working to support Ukraine and beef up their own defenses. But the blowup between President Trump and Ukraine’s president on Friday made those goals more urgent.
The New York Times - 4d
Europe’s rescue mission on Ukraine: keep Trump engaged

Continent’s biggest powers gathered at London summit to salvage something from crumbling postwar order
Financial Times - 3d
Is Europe misunderstanding Trump on Ukraine? | Stephen Wertheim

The new administration appears to be taking a position that Ukrainian and European leaders aren’t hearing – or are trying to alter. A high-stakes transatlantic miscommunication is unfolding, with ...
The Guardian - 3d
Judge denies bid to block Trump administration from placing USAID workers on leave

President Trump has targeted the U.S. Agency for International Development as part of his plan to shrink the size of the federal government.
CBS News - Feb. 21
Supreme Court denies Trump administration request to cancel $2 billion in foreign aid

The Supreme Court in a 5-4 emergency ruling Wednesday refused to halt a judge’s decision ordering the Trump administration to immediately release nearly $2 billion in foreign aid payments owed ...
The Hill - 1d
‘I did nothing wrong’: NYC Mayor Adams denies immigration deal with Trump

Democrats grilled New York City Mayor Eric Adams at a House hearing on sanctuary cities. Adams denied any wrongdoing and said there was “no quid pro quo” with the Trump administration to avoid ...
NBC News - 21h
In foreign policy, Trump needs to be more like Reagan, less like Biden

The Biden administration's reluctance to take action against Russia in Ukraine has been criticized, while Trump's new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made similar rookie mistakes, potentially ...
The Hill - Feb. 22
Trump needs a lesson on the Monroe Doctrine for US-Colombia relations

The decline of positive U.S. engagement in Colombia had already contributed to the spread of faux-democratic thinking and disinformation-fueled populism throughout the hemisphere.
The Hill - Feb. 25
Starmer to warn Trump that peace in Ukraine needs US military cover

UK prime minister heads for Washington as president reiterates need for Europe to provide the security for Kyiv
Financial Times - Feb. 26
We need a new playbook to oppose Trump’s war on medical science

Despite the existential threat to American health, resistance from our leaders has been remarkably light.
The Hill - Feb. 27
Trump says Zelenskyy needs to be 'more appreciative' before restarting negotiations

President Trump said he believed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy needed to be "more appreciative" of the support coming from the U.S. before negotiations for a mineral deal and further aid continue.
NBC News - 2d
Trump needs a "designated survivor" for speech to Congress. Here's how it works.

With members of the presidential line of succession in the Capitol for President Trump's speech to the joint session of Congress, a designated survivor will be named to stay away in case of a ...
CBS News - 2d
Trump voters say president needs more time to turn economy around

The economy helped put President Trump back in the White House, and it will be a pillar of his speech to Congress. He is expected to talk about lowering prices for Americans, even as his tariffs ...
CBS News - 1d
Al Green on protest at Trump speech: ‘He needs to save Medicaid’

Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) opened up about the moment he was escorted out of the House chamber Tuesday evening, saying he protested at President Trump’s joint address to Congress because “he needs to ...
The Hill - 1d
One big takeaway from Trump’s speech? He needs a weak dollar.

Even though the U.S. dollar has been sliding on international exchanges for weeks, the president didn’t even pay lip service to the idea of a strong greenback — let alone endorse an actual ...
MarketWatch - 22h
Trump pick says US needs to 'adapt' to climate change

Click for more from The Hill. {beacon} Energy & Environment Energy & Environment The Big Story Trump pick says US needs to 'adapt' to climate change President Trump’s pick to lead the ...
The Hill - 19h
Pakistan Needs Support Fighting Terrorism. A Happy Trump Could Help.

The president’s praise of the Pakistani government for its role in capturing a “top terrorist” signaled a possible strengthening of counterterrorism ties.
The New York Times - 19h
Trump’s Rift With Europe Adds Fuel to a Rally in Defense Stocks

A flurry of trading has helped push the Pan-European Stoxx 600 index to a record high as investors expect Europe’s governments to increase military spending.
The New York Times - Feb. 18
Europe’s New Reality: Trump May Not Quit NATO, but He’s Already Undercutting It

European officials knew the president’s win would threaten the fundamental precepts of the post-World War II order. But the speed at which it is unraveling has created a crisis of enormous ...
The New York Times - Feb. 20
Europe’s Moon plans at risk as Trump team reviews Nasa’s Artemis project

Programme aims to beat China in returning humans to lunar surface
Financial Times - Feb. 21
Poland’s Andrzej Duda to meet Donald Trump on Saturday– Europe live

Polish president to fly to Washington, making him the first European leader to be welcomed by Trump in the White House, reports Polish media. A 51-year-old man has been sentenced to eight years in ...
The Guardian - Feb. 21
Trump’s bullshit blitz has Europe on its knees | Stewart Lee

For the US president’s cheerleaders, the whitewashing of the deaths of ten of thousands of Ukrainians is a small price to pay for sticking it to the wokerati. Was it really only a month ago that ...
The Guardian - Feb. 23
Shocked by Trump, Europe Turns Its Hopes to Germany’s Election

Germany’s economy is stalled and its politics fractured. But it sees an opening for a new chancellor to lead Europe’s response to a changing America.
The New York Times - Feb. 23
Europe Prepares to Face Russia as Trump’s America Steps Back

Europeans are debating additional funding and contemplating troops in Ukraine as American support appears ever more at risk.
The New York Times - Feb. 24
Macron walks tightrope with Trump as he makes Europe's case on Ukraine

As the first European leader to visit Trump since his inauguration, Macron navigated potentially testing talks.
BBC News - Feb. 25
How Can Europe Talk to Trump? Macron Tries Flattery, and Gentle Resistance.

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, epitomized how the continent’s leaders are trying to navigate President Trump’s increasingly hostile administration.
The New York Times - Feb. 25
Trump Says Ukraine Should Look to Europe for Any Security Guarantees

President Trump said Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, would visit Washington on Friday as part of a deal for Ukrainian mineral wealth. His position could ultimately embolden Russia.
The New York Times - Feb. 27
Trump's move away from Europe is a win for China, Western officials say

With American reliability in doubt, some European nations and other countries may seek alternative partners and markets, possibly in China, current and former Western diplomats say.
NBC News - Feb. 26
As Trump breaks ranks with Europe, are Asia-Pacific allies next?

The Trump administration's focus on the price, not value, of alliances could affect security pledges and risks to Taiwan, experts say.
CNBC - 6d
Europe’s car suppliers warn they will be unable to absorb Trump tariffs

US shares in Valeo and Forvia fall sharply amid uncertainty over protectionist measures
Financial Times - 6d