The US and Syria: Between strategic success and unfinished business

The US and Syria: Between strategic success and unfinished business

Washington is facing a moment of rare strategic clarity in Syria, a country long synonymous with unending war and geopolitical entanglement. A fragile interim government in Syria is struggling for stabilization. The dilemma for the U.S. is how to choose its level of engagement there without engaging in new conflicts or letting adversarial forces gain ground.

This becomes particularly important for the Trump administration, as Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced a transitional government on March 30, appointing a diverse 23-member Cabinet — an illustration of his growing grip on power. Although past policy has oscillated between intervention and disengagement, the current situation requires a balanced approach between pragmatic diplomacy and enforcing critical red lines. The decisions Washington makes during this period will shape whether Syria develops into a functional state or backslides into instability.

Strategically, the U.S. has achieved major successes in the region. The military presence of Iran has been substantially debilitated. Hezbollah's weapon supply chains have been interrupted and Russia's control over Syrian politics has diminished. The  longstanding “ring of fire” which threatened Israel due to Iranian-backed militias no longer presents an urgent danger. 

These successes, however, do not translate to an automatic U.S. exit from Syria’s affairs. A hasty U.S. withdrawal, combined with rigid policy approaches, would create fertile conditions for its adversaries to regain power in the resulting vacuum. The situation demands careful consideration, because Syria will fall back into disorder from insufficient engagement, yet deep intervention could inversely disrupt the current political equilibrium.

The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 remains the subject of extensive discussion in Washington regarding its potential lifting. The sanctions imposed to condemn Bashar al-Assad 's crimes have been unintentionally blocking Syria's economic revival since the war ended. The U.S. should maintain its human rights enforcement yet Washington should adopt a dynamic approach by offering economic incentives for specific reforms to support Syria's new government in establishing stability.

The U.S. policy must rest primarily on diplomatic relations. Washington has demonstrated its willingness to adjust policies through limited sanctions relief in January and it facilitated essential agreements between the interim government and Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. These efforts should be expanded. The good thing is that there has been some positive development in this regard.

As per credible media reports, the U.S. has presented Syria with a set of conditions for partial sanctions relief, including a firm demand that no foreign nationals hold senior positions in the government. 

Natasha Franceschi, U.S. deputy ...

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