The top issues Trump 2.0 will need to tackle

In January, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as our 47th president. He joins Grover Cleveland as only the second president to ever serve two noncontiguous terms.

Though new presidents may be given some slack as they acclimate to their new role, Trump will effectively hit the ground running, with a growing list of staff and appointees who have all demonstrated loyalty to him. He is also reportedly communicating with world leaders as if he is already in the White House.

Independent of whether he seeks retribution against his detractors, given his choice of attorney general, there are several pressing issues that should be on the top of his agenda and demand his immediate attention.

For one, the federal national debt is fast approaching $36 trillion — that is, 36 followed by 12 zeroes. To put this into perspective, this amounts to nearly $110,000 for every man, woman, and child in the nation. In comparison, the nation’s gross domestic product for 2023 was just over $27 trillion, or just over $81,000 per person. That means that the national debt is now greater than the amount of goods and services produced each year.

More concerningly, the federal budget deficit in 2023 was around $1.70 trillion, with $6.16 trillion spent and $4.47 trillion taken in as revenue — and over $650 billion spent on interest alone. It does not take advanced economics to know that this is a threat to our national security and well-being.

That is one reason he is creating a Department of Government Efficiency, to be headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. There is no doubt that government waste is ubiquitous. Many government policies are designed to prevent fraud by a few, which invariably leads to inefficiencies and inconveniences for the many. The challenge is separating the “husk from the grain” so that the necessary government services can be delivered more efficiently and effectively.

The hope is that such efforts will resolve the imbalance between federal spending and federal revenue. Trump has also talked about making his prior tax cuts permanent. The challenge is how this will impact the federal budget deficit and, ultimately, the national debt. With a Republican House and Senate, he will enjoy free rein with the nation’s purse strings.

Staying with finances, the Social Security Trust Fund contains about $2.9 trillion. The problem is that it is now running year-to-year deficits that will exhaust the reserve in less than a decade. A similar issue exists with the Medicare Trust funds that back up programs providing health care for seniors and the disabled. Making modest changes to the program today could avert significant disruptions down the road.

Trump must work with the House to get this issue resolved. Simply following the path of least resistance and maintaining the status quo will yield disastrous results for seniors (which most people will be one day) and the most vulnerable.

We all know that Trump will need to pay attention to the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts. Left alone, the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. Trump may not be inclined to continue to support Ukraine, given his amicable relationship with Vladimir Putin. That means Ukraine will need to seek support from other Western allies, or risk assuming a much-weakened position as the war approaches its third year.

The Middle East conflict is perhaps even more problematic. As Israel has launched attacks into Iran, the Iranian supreme leader has promised retribution against both Israel and the United States, given that the Israel Defense Forces rely heavily on U.S. arms to carry out their mission. Avoiding an event on the same magnitude as 9/11 must be a priority.

At some point, the risk of attacks against Americans — most concerningly, on U.S. soil — becomes nonnegligible. Possible domestic targets include our nation’s power grid, food supply, water supply and financial system. Biological weapons can also create widespread chaos and casualties. Any U.S. response will carry the risk of the conflict becoming global, with potentially disastrous ramifications.

Meanwhile, World War III has begun — not on a physical battlefield, but in cyberspace.

The race to harness the powers of artificial intelligence in society and the economy is now becoming more apparent, with China a formidable near-peer competitor. This became more visible over the past year when generative AI large language models incorporated into ChatGPT was launched. On the other hand, ongoing misinformation and disinformation efforts using AI have also become a weak point for our nation’s democracy and social stability.

To further exacerbate this digital arms race between the U.S. and China is quantum computing. This has the potential to be used to solve problems that are currently intractable with classical computers embedded in all common technologies. For example, if quantum computers and algorithms advance to the point that existing computer security can be overcome, the risks across society would be overwhelming.

The quantum computing arms race demands a moonshot investment. The risks of finishing second in this race are too great to be ignored. How Trump manages this technology war could make or break his legacy, and the wellbeing of the nation.

Immigration will also be among Trump’s most pressing issues. In early 2024, the Biden administration brokered a deal with the Republican-majority House for immigration reform. It was eventually nixed when Trump did not want to give Biden a “win” on immigration. With Trump in power, and Republicans controlling the House and the Senate, Trump can institute any immigration policy that he favors.

One policy he offered during his campaign and appears willing to follow through on is to deport undocumented immigrants. The biggest challenge is finding such people, the cost of doing what he proposes, and the unintended consequences on the economy of such workers no longer being in the country. Finding sensible immigration policies that will work for all stakeholders is in Trump's best interest, given the importance of immigrants in numerous industries. How he receives such advice and acts upon it will determine the success of his efforts.

The two months leading up to Inauguration Day are certain to be fraught with many surprises and a smattering of drama. Focusing on key issues that impact the nation’s well-being should be Trump’s top priority — not just appeasing the people who put him in office.

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.