The next stages of the Gaza ceasefire face serious obstacles

Israelis and Palestinians breathed a sigh of relief when the ceasefire began. Now they are holding their breath to see if it lasts. Although there are some signs of hope, there are also far more reasons for concern.

The deal has three phases, each more contingent and fragile than the preceding one. The first phase, lasting six weeks, began with the release of three Israeli hostages in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners. Another 30 Israelis and more than 1,600 Palestinians will be gradually released.

Although the ceasefire is holding, worrying developments cast doubt on Netanyahu’s commitment to implementing the next phase.

The Israel Defense Forces bombed targets until the last minute, killing 73 people in air raids the night before the ceasefire was announced. Benjamin Netanyahu then declared that “both President Trump and President Biden gave full backing to Israel’s right to return to fighting if Israel comes to the conclusion that negotiations on Phase B are futile.”

Perhaps he was answering critics who viewed the ceasefire agreement as a sell-out, but he may also have been indicating his own unhappiness with the deal.

Netanyahu only agreed to it under pressure from Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff. “What happened,” a senior Israeli official explained, “is that Witkoff delivered a stern message from the incoming president of the United States, who unequivocally demanded the deal’s conclusion.”

Developments elsewhere in the occupied territories are also worrying. No sooner had the dust in Gaza settled than Netanyahu began operations in the West Bank.

On Tuesday, Jan. 21, the IDF began air and ground attacks against Jenin, killing 10 Palestinians.

The immediate pretext for the incursion was unclear, but Netanyahu insisted its goal was to “defeat terrorism.”

As with his defiant statement on the eve of the ceasefire, the Jenin operation may have been launched to reassure hardliners of his commitment to combating any threat to Israeli security. However, the attack might be part of a wider strategy to extend control over the West Bank.

The incursion must be understood within the context of Israeli settler violence against Palestinians, which has increased dramatically since Oct. 7, 2023 with the acquiescence (if not the tacit approval) of the Israeli government.

Trump has already lifted Biden-era sanctions on settlers.

That action, coupled with the appointment of Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian who believes the occupied territories are part of Biblical Israel, signals his willingness to allow expansion of settlements and perhaps even Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

During his first term, Trump moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and issued a proclamation recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, reversing long-standing U.S. policy.

Following the collapse of the Assad regime, the IDF occupied the buffer zone between Israel and Syria and approved the expansion of settlements in the Golan, allegedly to enhance security.

These developments do not bode well for the success of the next phases of the ceasefire, let alone a lasting peace. Palestinians consider Gaza, the West Bank and the Golan as part of what should be a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu rejects.

The situation in Gaza also offers encouraging signs and cause for concern.

The killing has stopped. Desperately needed aid is entering the enclave, and people are returning to what remains of their homes.

At the same time, Hamas police officers patrol the streets, a clear indication that the organization is far from being destroyed.

For the time being, the Netanyahu government is allowing this security arrangement as part of the ceasefire deal, but images of armed Hamas members in their distinctive blue uniforms operating openly in Gaza no doubt rankles many Israelis.

Nonetheless, preliminary discussions of phase two have already begun.

Set to begin 42 days after the start of the ceasefire, this phase requires a declaration of “sustainable calm” followed by the release of the remaining hostages in return for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.

That’s a tall order, and many details need to be worked out. By releasing the hostages, Hamas would be giving up its last bit of leverage. For its part, Israel will almost certainly insist on a buffer zone around Gaza and possibly some military presence within the enclave.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the far-right Religious Zionist Party has threatened to leave the government if Israel does not “occupy and create a temporary military government” in Gaza.

Since the other hardliner, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has already quit the government, the departure of Smotrich would deprive the government of its slim parliamentary majority (62 or 63 of 120 seats) in the Knesset.

Given Netanyahu’s determination to hold power at all costs, the finance minister’s threat may be enough to scupper the deal.

However, scenes of joyful reunions between hostages and their families make for compelling viewing. Most Israelis want the rest released. That imperative may lead to a compromise on implementing phase two.

Phase three, which has no set start date, includes rebuilding Gaza as well as the reopening of border crossings and the return of the bodies of Israelis and Palestinians killed in the conflict.

Rebuilding Gaza will be a herculean task, which could cost as much as $80 billion, and it remains unclear who will pay for it.

Governing post-war Gaza will also be challenging.

In December the Palestinian Authority and Hamas reached a tentative agreement to create a joint governing committee, but Israel has said it will not permit a role for either Hamas or Fatah, the group that dominates the PA.

A peacekeeping mission by regional states might be possible, but no one has yet volunteered for that.

Even if all these obstacles could be overcome, a permanent end to hostilities in Gaza leaves unanswered the question of a comprehensive plan that satisfies Palestinian national aspirations and Israeli security concerns.

Without such an agreement, any deal over Gaza will be nothing more than a respite before the next round of fighting.

Tom Mockaitis is a professor of history at DePaul University and the author of “Violent Extremists: Understanding the Domestic and International Terrorist Threat ." 

Topics

Trump inherits fragile Gaza ceasefire

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, expected to begin its first phase Sunday, has brought relief to the international community but questions about whether the truce will hold — an issue that ...
The Hill - Jan. 18
A long overdue ceasefire in Gaza

Moves towards a sustainable Israeli-Palestinian peace must now begin
Financial Times - Jan. 17
Anxiety in Gaza, Israel over ceasefire

As a ceasefire deal is expected to go into effect between Israel and Hamas, Israel's government still hasn't officially signed off on the agreement, creating anxiety over whether it will hold. ...
CBS News - Jan. 16
How the ceasefire deal will impact Gaza

Even with a ceasefire deal on the horizon, the 15-month war in Gaza has left the Palestinian territory in ruins. Emergency medicine physician Dr. Thaer Ahmad joins "The Daily Report" to discuss his ...
CBS News - Jan. 16
Morning Report — Gaza ceasefire: Will it last?

Editor's note: This report has been updated to correct the name of the outgoing CIA director. In today’s issue: Gaza ceasefire: Will it last? Fifteen months of fighting in Gaza is poised to end ...
The Hill - Jan. 16
What have the main obstacles been to a ceasefire deal in Gaza?

Israel and Hamas have been holding indirect talks for more than a year aimed at ending the war in Gaza and returning the hostages to Israel.
CBS News - Jan. 13
What are the main obstacles to a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages?

Israel and Hamas have been holding indirect talks for more than a year aimed at ending the war in Gaza and returning scores of militant-held hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel
ABC News - Jan. 13
A Gaza ceasefire agreement in next 2 weeks? The US is hopeful

Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter {beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story A Gaza ceasefire agreement in next 2 weeks? The US is hopeful The ...
The Hill - Jan. 7
US hoping for Gaza ceasefire agreement in next 2 weeks: Blinken

The Biden administration says it is still hoping to secure a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas in its final two weeks in the White House, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday. ...
The Hill - Jan. 6