Shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa: An Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia axis

The recent summit between Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia signals yet another major shift in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa — a region long beset by chronic instability, rivalry and competing interests. This trilateral summit, held in Asmara, Eritrea, was ostensibly intended to put up a united front amid regional security challenges. And the big elephant in the room was Ethiopia — Africa's second most populous nation and a major player concerning regional trends.

While the summit projected itself as an alignment in each country’s strategic interest to maintain a semblance of stability; it was actually intended to encircle Ethiopia — waiting next door — with tensions over its activities and influence continuing to simmer underneath. Officially, the main subject of talks was a pact to boost cooperation and shore up autonomy in the region. The trio of leaders, Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki, Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somalia's Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, emphasized the importance of maintaining territorial integrity and resisting external interference in the joint statement.

The Horn of Africa is riddled with complex alliances and historical grievances. Ethiopia has often found itself at the center of these power dynamics, particularly given its controversial deal with Somaliland and ongoing tensions with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. A proposed deal under which Ethiopia would acquire a piece of Somaliland shoreline, to be used by its navy and for commercial purposes, has been the subject of controversy. The feud over the port has elevated existing tensions with Somalia, which has not recognized Somaliland’s independence since its 1991 secession.

Somalia inked a military pact with Egypt in August, adding to its ongoing security relationship with Cairo. In return, Egypt has supplied Somalia with arms and military equipment to bolster that country's fight against an al-Shabaab insurgency. It seems that Ethiopia's ties with its neighbors are weakening as the Cairo-Mogadishu axis gets stronger. While there is much left unsaid, Somalia's move toward Egypt indicates the next chapter of alliances evolving and changing with political winds.

While Ethiopia was not specifically named, it was apparent that the summit discussions were aimed at addressing worries triggered by Addis Ababa's actions in the region. Egypt’s longstanding rivalry with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continues to be one of the most serious tensions in the region. Cairo views the dam, being built on the Blue Nile, as an existential threat to its water supply. Negotiations between the two countries have therefore reached an impasse.

Ethiopia’s filling of the dam has only aggravated Egypt's fears. These water politics bring to the fore Egypt's deepening regional alliances. The Egyptian army's continued presence in Somalia is an essential part of the country's strategy to challenge Ethiopia's growing influence in the area. Egypt's dispatch of arms to Somalia, as well as the country's participation in UN peacekeeping and anti-terrorism missions against al-Shabaab, demonstrate its ostensible efforts to the stabilize the Horn of Africa while promoting its strategic ties.

For Eritrea, this alliance is a conferment of power and influence in the area. Often dubbed as the "North Korea of Africa" because of its isolationist policies and strict authoritarian rule under the Afwerki regime, Eritrea has always tried to become an eminent regional actor. Eritrea legally got its independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a long fight, but the border disputes and regional rivalries continued, preventing the two countries from normalizing their relations for years.

Eritrea’s proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, makes it a critical player in securing this key waterway. Eritrea’s participation in regional security, especially its cooperation with Egypt, serves as a broad-based strategy to balance the rising power of Ethiopia. Similarly, Somalia’s fury at the Somaliland deal has driven it closer to Egypt, a traditional adversary of Ethiopia.

The Asmara meeting could mean that the Horn of Africa’s power is being redistributed. The gathering indicates a shift away from the traditional alliances in the region. Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia are establishing themselves with the aspect of military and regional control not only through cooperation but also by asserting the importance of regional influence as a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s rise. Whether this newfound partnership leads to greater stability or exacerbates existing tensions remains to be seen.

Egypt’s involvement in the Horn of Africa, despite not sharing borders with Somalia, Ethiopia or Eritrea, raises eyebrows — and some alarms. Their joint statement talks of "bringing peace to the region," but it’s hard to ignore the deeper undercurrents. Egypt, long frustrated with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, may be positioning itself for a proxy war, using Eritrea to destabilize its neighbor without engaging in direct conflict. This alliance heightens Ethiopia’s security concerns, especially given Eritrea’s historical rivalry with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front.

Increased aggression could be brewing, with border clashes and the possibility of extremist groups in Somalia targeting Ethiopia. It’s a volatile mix.

Ethiopia, for its part, needs to act swiftly. Diplomacy is key — both with Egypt and Eritrea and on the global stage. Engaging with international organizations and securing the support of the U.S., which remains invested in Egypt’s cooperation as long as it doesn’t threaten Israel, will be crucial. Ethiopia may also strengthen ties with Kenya and Sudan to form a regional counterbalance.

A proposed framework for managing Nile waters could help cool tensions, but Ethiopia must also invest in public diplomacy to clarify its intentions. In an already fragile region, how Ethiopia tackles these alliances will shape its future security and stability.

Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.