Quantum computing will be bigger than AI — so why is no one talking about it?
You have probably heard of it, but you likely know nothing about it. Some claim it will be the next technological game-changer, and they are right. It is quantum computing, and its potential rewards and risks are even greater than those of artificial intelligence.
To appreciate what quantum computing is, one must consider the classical computing that we use every day in technologies like laptops and smart phones. Classical computing effectively manages bits — switches that are either on or off, one or zero. Microchips are the foundational electronic devices that allow such bits to be managed. Technologies embedded with microchips use software that enables the functionality that we rely upon.
Both the strength and limitation of classical computing is that every piece of information must be represented using a string (or sequence) of ones and zeros. This allows all information to be digitized (hence the term digital economy). It also restricts the efficiency of systems that use classical computing, which is embedded in every available technology. Think of this as moving within a large city along a grid of streets. It would be more efficient if you could move along the diagonals through buildings, rather than around them on the streets.
Bit string representation of information has its advantages. One is computer security, captured in the field of cryptography. Electronic systems in finance, government, industry and the military can be protected against bad actors because such systems are effectively locked unless one has the cryptographic key to open them. Such security is ubiquitous in the digital world. It is the reason users need passwords that generate the keys to enter such systems.
Bad actors look for ways to access such passwords, allowing them to enter systems for personal gain or mischievous activity.
Digital systems remain secure and protected, provided their passwords can be kept from bad actors. That is why security breaches present such a threat, exposing passwords that can unlock personal and private information. Bad actors can randomly or systematically use trial and error to find passwords and unlock digital systems. With classical computing systems, it would take many years to uncover strong passwords.
Enter quantum computing. The basic unit of quantum computers is not ones and zero, but something in-between, called qubits.
Whereby bits are stable, qubits are not, unless they operate at very cold temperatures, approaching absolute zero (or around -460 degrees Fahrenheit). However, if such cold temperatures can be achieved and maintained, quantum computers offer a pathway to unlock computer security systems and other digital systems for which classical systems are near impenetrable. For example, quantum computing would destabilize cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, posing a threat to the entire cryptocurrency industry.
The U.S. government and industry are investing heavily in the development of quantum computers and the necessary algorithms that can be run on them. If successful, quantum computing may unleash unlimited potential to advance medical research that can improve health care, create unprecedented efficiencies in supply chains, and enhance currently untapped system performances.
Simply put, quantum computers may be able to solve problems that classical computers are unable to tackle in a reasonable amount of time.
It remains unclear which country will be the first to create a fully operational quantum computer that can solve existing unsolved or intractable problems. A recent advance by Japanese researchers shows potential to bring quantum computer functionality at room temperature, providing hope that quantum computing may one day become more practical and ubiquitous. Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip also has the potential to make quantum computing more practical and accessible.
Then there is the quantum computing arms race between the U.S. and China. The nation that reaches the finish line first will gain a clear advantage. It will also carry tremendous risks, given the potential of quantum computing. Quantum computers will be able to unlock classical computing systems by rapidly finding their cryptographic keys. The digital security used today by the government, the military and financial institutions will be weakened. Indeed, password protection as we know it today will become obsolete using quantum computing. That is why quantum-safe cryptography will become the new computer security standard.
Of course, it will likely take many more years before such a thing is possible. Claims that such advances are just around the corner appear optimistic. Putting aside the marketing spin, research to build a fully functional and widely accessible quantum computer still appears to be years away. It is indeed the technology “moonshot” of our generation.
Although quantum computing is out of view from most people, the quantum computing arms-race is moving full speed ahead. Investments by government and industry entities in the U.S. and with its allies are critical to determine who will be the first to reach the finish line.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science in the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.
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