What is Trump really thinking with his Ukraine policy?
There seems to be a common refrain about President Trump’s recent inflammatory rhetoric aimed at Ukraine. Different media outlets, commentators and politicians from across the political spectrum have come at the issue differently, but the message is probably fairly summarized as, “What is he thinking?”
Sadly, in Washington and European capitals these days, that is offered as a rhetorical question. As such, it is fairly worthless in trying to understand what is going on. But if, in fact, the question is asked literally, and with expectation of a reply, I can offer a guess.
What is Trump thinking when it comes to Ukraine? There could be any number of things. He may be blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in part for his first impeachment. He may be wanting to cultivate the strategic unpredictability that is a key part of his repertoire. But there is another possibility that sounds more likely: Trump just sees geopolitics differently from the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post and just about everybody (but not entirely everyone) in Europe.
Ten years ago, hardly anyone in this country knew Ukraine existed. In fact, it wasn’t until just a few years ago that we apparently learned the proper way to pronounce its capital city.
One of the things we did know about Ukraine was that it was notoriously corrupt. So corrupt, in fact, that the U.S. had special programs — referred to as “dekleptification” — tied to any involvement with the country, including foreign aid. Indeed, the topic of “Corruption in Ukraine” even has its own Wikipedia page.
But regardless of that, Ukraine wasn’t really that big a deal — either in global politics or American interests — until Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Even then, it seems the West didn’t care enough about the place to do much more than complain at the UN and levy some sanctions. (So much for “appeasement.”)
Russia, on the other hand, is a very big deal in international geopolitics, even under the notoriously autocratic leadership of Vladimir Putin. That's what the world's largest nuclear arsenal does for your country. So maybe Trump sees it as a higher U.S. priority to have good relations with Russia than with Ukraine.
Of course, the Europeans see things differently, as you would expect. World War II remains close in geographic and political memory, and there is a lot about Russia today that conjures up images of Nazi Germany in the late 1930s.
But that is Europe. Perhaps Trump is looking at the equation differently. Maybe he sees it as the U.S. and Russia on one side of the equation, and China on the other.
As soul-crushing as this would be for our European friends, it isn’t completely impossible to make the case for it. Europe is a mess — pathetic economic growth, arrests for thoughtcrime, a prolonged immigration crisis and unstable governments. Indeed, a stunning number Europeans think climate change — not Russian aggression, Chinese expansionism or the threat of nuclear war — is the single most serious problem facing the world.
Maybe Trump is worried that a group like that cannot be counted on as long-term partners in “big picture” geopolitics.
Yes, China and Russia are very much aligned right now. But there is no reason to think that is anywhere close to a permanent arrangement. The two countries are not natural allies. Indeed, as recently as a generation ago, they had border clashes and Moscow even hinted at a full-scale nuclear attack against Beijing.
The only thing uniting them now seems to be their opposition to the U.S. Maybe Trump thinks he can change that. In a tri-polar world, maybe Trump just wants America to be on the stronger side of a two versus one alignment.
If this is how Trump sees the world, and it is contributing to his approach to Ukraine, he is taking a gamble of epic, world-changing proportions. If he is wrong, and Russia sees Trump’s approach as weakness, indecision, and 21st-Century appeasement, the worst-case result could be World War III, with all the horrors that entails. And in that event, history would rightly treat Trump dramatically worse than it has Neville Chamberlain.
But if he is right, then maybe a new world order of sorts emerges, with the U.S., Europe and Russia (maybe even India?) balancing the growing threat of China. That would make Trump FDR, Richard Nixon, John Foster Dulles and Henry Kissinger all rolled into one.
High stakes poker, indeed — but perhaps that’s part of the job.
And perhaps that is what Trump is really thinking.
Mick Mulvaney, a former congressman from South Carolina, is a contributor to NewsNation. He served as director of the Office of Management and Budget, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump.
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