Peters retirement scrambles Michigan Senate race for Democrats
Michigan Sen. Gary Peters’s (D) unexpected decision to not seek another term in 2026 has scrambled what was already expected to be a closely fought race in a key battleground.
Democrats knew that next year’s Senate race in the Great Lakes State was going to be fierce, especially after President Trump narrowly eked out a win over former Vice President Kamala Harris even as Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) managed to fend off her GOP rival.
But now, with Peters stepping down, the race is poised to be even more bruising for Democrats, as a flurry of candidates have indicated they might be interested in seeking the party's nomination, while some high-profile names like former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D) are also being floated.
“We had a two-term incumbent there who had a pretty good track record of delivering for Michigan and hadn’t really done anything to offend any major constituencies in the state. And now you’re starting over from scratch if you’re the Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond. “So that definitely makes it more competitive.”
Peters served in the House for six years before first being elected to the Senate in 2014, easily winning by double digits despite the otherwise brutal electoral year for Democrats. His reelection victory in 2020 was much narrower, winning by less than 2 points, as Michigan appeared to be turning increasingly purple.
While only in his second term, Peters became more prominent among Senate Democrats, leading their campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), for the past four years and guiding the party through two cycles, including the 2022 midterms, which saw unexpected success for his party.
“Sen. Peters was tapped to head the DSCC the last two cycles for a reason,” Hemond said. “He’s very good at campaigning, and he is a very diligent, very talented fundraiser.”
That, along with the fact that he’s only 66 years old — young for the Senate — made Peters’s announcement a surprise.
His decision has set off a wide-open race to replace him on both sides of the aisle.
Several candidates who were rumored to be possible gubernatorial candidates to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in 2026 have now expressed interest or at least openness to running instead for Senate.
Perhaps the most high-profile candidate is Buttigieg, who got his start in politics as mayor of South Bend, Ind., but moved to Michigan in 2022, stirring speculation that he intends to run for office there.
A source familiar with Buttigieg told The Hill after Peters’s announcement that he is likely to consider a Senate run. A spokesperson for Buttigieg told CNN that he’s “taking a serious look.”
Members of both sides of the aisle said Buttigieg could be a formidable candidate, as he has a national profile and is well known.
Buttigieg also demonstrated strong fundraising prowess during his 2020 presidential run and a willingness to speak to audiences outside the Democratic base, including on Fox News’s daytime news casts during the 2024 campaign.
Steve Mitchell, a political strategist and the CEO of the polling and political consulting firm Mitchell Research & Communications, said Peters’s decision may have the biggest implications for Buttigieg, who has been rumored a possible gubernatorial candidate.
Mitchell said one poll that the firm conducted in September found Buttigieg with a large lead over Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who has declared her run for governor.
Mitchell said running for Senate may be better suited for Buttigieg given his newness to the state.
“Given the fact that he came to Michigan two years ago, is not originally from here, that running for the Senate is a lot better position than running for governor, which requires an understanding of state government,” he said.
But his relative lack of familiarity with the state compared to other possible candidates may expose him to accusations of carpetbagging, potentially hurting his prospects in a busy field.
“I don't think he brings much to the table from a Michigan perspective,” said Saul Anuzis, a former chair of the state GOP. “His knowledge of the state is looking out their cottage window on Lake Michigan. So that's not really a qualification for representing the state of Michigan. I think the Democrats will have much stronger candidates than him on the horizon.”
Several other Democrats have been reported to be considering bids, including Michigan Reps. Haley Stevens and Hillary Scholten, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and state Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow. State Attorney General Dana Nessel has been voiced as another possible candidate.
Hemond said while Buttigieg would be a strong contender, he wouldn’t clear the field, and the question for deciding the nominee would just be of candidate quality. He added that a crowded field may not be hurtful to Democrats as long as the race doesn’t become too personal.
“For Democrats, a crowded primary, as long as it doesn't get too contentious in terms of tearing candidates down, might actually be a virtue for Democrats coming off a pretty painful loss last year and trying to find their way in terms of reconnecting with some parts of the electorate that have maybe fallen a little bit out of love with them,” he said.
On the Republican side, the list of possible candidates seems just as extensive. The party will be particularly bullish since they’re targeting the seat with no incumbent to oppose.
Rep. John James (R-Mich.) has already been the nominee for Senate in 2018 and 2020 and seems likely to run for statewide office again. Tudor Dixon, the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee, hinted at considering a run.
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) reportedly is considering a bid. Former state Attorney General Mike Cox (R) has formed an exploratory committee on possibly running for governor, but Republicans speculated that he could switch to run for Senate and that former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who nearly defeated Slotkin in the 2024 Senate race, may try again.
“You've got some pretty strong names out there from a name ID perspective and from a fundraising perspective,” Anuzis said. “And so ultimately, it's going to have to play itself out, but when you have more than three people in a race, it really opens up.”
Though Peters’s retirement may give Republicans an opportunity, the party could still have an uphill battle given recent Senate results in Michigan. A Republican has only won a Senate race there once in the past 50 years.
Mitchell also noted the backlash that the incumbent president’s party often sees in midterm elections, causing the party that lost the most recent presidential race to win competitive gubernatorial and congressional ones.
“In terms of the Senate, that’s especially true,” he said.
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