Large Senate GOP majority strengthens Trump's hand

Republicans have at least a 52-seat Senate majority and are looking to expand it to 54 seats, as GOP candidates are leading the vote counts in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Such a cushion would strengthen Donald Trump's hand as he fills a Cabinet and other executive and judicial branch positions.

A narrower Senate GOP majority would have put a lot of power in the hands of Republican moderates who didn't support Trump, namely Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), but now with 52 to 54 seats under GOP control Trump will be able to largely bypass these centrists to get his agenda passed through Congress.

A big question, however, is whether Republicans will keep control of the House. A Democratic-controlled House would become a major obstacle to Trump's legislative agenda. But the early results are promising for House Republicans.

Trump allies on Capitol Hill are already discussing speedy confirmations of controversial candidates to serve in Trump’s new Cabinet, such as Richard Grenell, the former acting Director of National Intelligence to head the State Department, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to hold a senior position in the Department of Health and Human Services.

Kennedy stirred the pot again on Wednesday when he told MSNBC in an interview that “entire departments, like the nutrition department at the FDA … have to go.”

Senate Democrats acknowledged on Wednesday they won’t have much leverage to stop Trump’s most polarizing nominees to the executive or judicial branches next year, given the expected size of the incoming GOP majority.

“We really worry about it,” Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.) said of what will be Trump’s largely unchecked ability to make appointments next year.

“With a significant number of senators … we have to be very concerned about the condition of the judiciary, when they have four more years to stack the courts and potentially the Supreme Court,” he added.

The two oldest members of the Supreme Court who may be due to retire next are conservative Justices Clarence Thomas, age 76, and Samuel Alito, age 74, who were the driving forces behind the court’s 2022 decision to overturn the right to abortion.

Beyond that, Republican lawmakers are pushing for hard-hitting legislation to secure the U.S.-Mexico border, something Trump made a top issue in the campaign, as well as proposals to “de-weaponize” the federal government and crack down on career federal employees whom Trump has labeled broadly as members of the “deep state.”

“If we hold the House, we will hit the ground running on budget reconciliation — the best vehicle to jump start the economy and help secure the border,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally, posted on the social media site X.

A Senate Republican aide said GOP leaders may use two separate budget reconciliation bills next year to get around a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, which would otherwise require mustering 60 votes.

“You could do two reconciliation bills, one to deal with the extension of the tax cuts,” the aide said of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which expires at the end of next year.

“You could potentially use the other for the other items the president talked about, de-weaponization of government, civil service reform, border funding,” the source added. “Reconciliation is where the most aggressive legislating is done.”

Republicans would be able to move Trump’s agenda through the Senate with simple-majority votes as long as the parliamentarian rule they have a substantial and non-tangential impact on federal spending, revenues or the deficit.

Republicans are also starting to look more seriously at repealing big pieces of President Biden’s signature legislative accomplishment, the Inflation Reduction Act. Trump has already proposed raising $900 billion in revenue by repealing Biden-era clean energy tax breaks.

They also want to rescind what’s remaining of the $80 billion Congress provided to the Internal Revenue Service to beef up tax compliance among the nation’s wealthiest individuals and families. That direct spending was included in Biden’s IRA, though about $20 billion of it was later diverted to other programs as part of a deal to raise the debt limit in 2023.

GOP lawmakers are also talking about legislation to open vast swaths of federal lands to oil and gas drilling and the extraction of critical minerals needed for semiconductors and other advanced technology.

“Fifty-three is a functioning majority,” said Senate Republican strategist, referring to the widespread view among Senate Republicans that they will need to control 53 seats to overcome any obstacles that Murkowski and Collins, two avowed Trump critics, may throw up against his agenda.

Both senators joined late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to block Trump’s effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Now, years later, many Republicans privately concede that the trio of moderates probably saved their party a big political headache by keeping ObamaCare in place.

Collins said she would write in former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley for president, while Murkowski said last month she wouldn’t vote for Trump or Harris.

There are other Trump skeptics in the Senate GOP conference who could put the brakes on more controversial aspects of Trump’s agenda, such as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump of inciting insurrection in 2021, or Senator-elect John Curtis (R-Utah), who will fill retiring Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) seat.

Curtis called for Trump’s censure after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

At a minimum, Senate Republicans will control a 52-seat majority next year. But they are optimistic that Republican David McCormick will defeat Sen. Bob Casey (D) when officials are done counting the votes in Pennsylvania, which would expand it to 53 seats.

“Pennsylvania is likely R,” said the Senate GOP strategist.

Mark Davin Harris, a consultant to McCormick’s campaign, declared on X that Casey’s campaign has run out troves on uncounted ballots from Democratic areas to catch his Republican opponent.

“Philadelphia has now all but exhausted its ballots. The largest chunk of ballots remaining is Cambria County Election Day. We believe this batch will net [McCormick] at least 20k votes. With Philly now all but completed, the race is over,” he posted on X.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) told reporters Wednesday that GOP leaders are “hopeful” their projected 52-seat majority will “grow” once all the votes are counted.

“We certainly already know we’re going to be in the majority. We’re hopeful that might actually grow some,” he said.

Asked about whether the GOP agenda would expand to become more ambitious with a 53-seat or 54-seat majority, McConnell cautioned that Republicans would still be limited by the need to get 60 votes to pass most legislation unless they use a special process known as budget reconciliation.

“We hear optimistic reports about what might happen in the House,” he said of the possibility that Republicans will keep control of the lower chamber. “If we’re going to legitimately work around the filibuster, it would be through reconciliation.”

Senate Republicans think they can still defeat Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in Nevada, where she is trailing Republican Sam Brown by nearly 4,000 votes.

Brown is ahead there 47.5 percent to 47.2 percent with 93 percent of the vote in.

If Rosen goes down in defeat, Republicans would wield a 54-seat Senate majority in January.