Jockeying kicks off to fill Vance vacancy in Senate

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is facing a key decision on whom to tap to fill the term of Vice President-elect Vance as jockeying among Ohio Republicans for the coveted appointment is set to become a knife fight.

Vance will be departing the upper chamber only two years after winning his seat, creating a vacancy that will have ramifications both immediately and down the line. The appointed senator would be staring down back-to-back campaigns: a high-stakes special election in 2026 and a race in 2028.

With a rare opening, Republicans are expecting an intraparty battle in a state that has become increasingly red in recent years.

“[The] jockeying will be intense,” Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) said.

Discussions are still in their infancy, but speculation is running rampant over whom DeWine may pick, with the governor’s office already receiving a steady stream of outreach from interested parties.

“A lot of people are calling,” DeWine told reporters Thursday. “We’re just going through the process of starting to think about this and see who would be the best person.”

DeWine also acknowledged that whoever is chosen must be ready to hit the ground running and have the ability to run and win the pair of coming Senate races, much like what Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) is trying to accomplish.

The senator is also expected to be a consensus pick, rather than someone either purely in the mold of DeWine, a moderate GOP governor, or cut wholly from MAGA cloth.

“I suspect that DeWine is going to pick someone that's broadly acceptable to the whole party,” a Trump World source told The Hill. “I don't expect him to pick some crazy MAGA person, but also he won't pick someone who will anger Trump and his supporters.”

According to a handful of GOP sources, Jane Timken is widely believed to be among the leading early contenders for the appointment.

The former Ohio GOP chair finished in a disappointing fifth place during the 2022 GOP Senate primary that Vance emerged from, but she has put herself in a solid position for an appointment due in part to her close relationship with DeWine. She ran the Ohio GOP during the opening years of his gubernatorial stint.

Timken was also a top ally of Vance leading up to the 2022 the general election.

One Ohio GOP insider described her as a “bridge builder,” something that would likely appeal to DeWine. But she is also known for her cautious approach and would have to instill confidence that she can win back-to-back Senate bids, especially after the failed primary run.

“Jane makes all the sense in the world. ... But that's also why she maybe won't get it,” one GOP operative with Ohio ties said. “She makes sense as the favorite on paper.”

DeWine also has a history of appointing women to open posts and positions, multiple operatives noted.

But after Timken, there is little consensus. Among the smattering of Republican names being mentioned are Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost, Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Sharon Kennedy and Rep. Mike Carey (Ohio).

Sources also noted that DeWine may opt to use the appointment as an opportunity to cull the herd of potential opponents in the state’s looming GOP gubernatorial primary.

Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) is DeWine’s favored choice as successor, but he could square off against the likes of Yost or Vivek Ramaswamy, the former presidential candidate and a favorite of President-elect Trump. This could lead DeWine to pick either of the two possible challengers, operatives believe, though Yost would be the more likely of the pair.

Strategists are also quick to note that DeWine, a former two-term senator himself, is sure to take the selection process particularly seriously — something the governor acknowledged while discussing the heightened importance of the role, especially given the double dose of elections the pick will face.

“It has to be someone who will serve well in the Senate. I think I have a pretty good idea of what it takes,” DeWine said, adding that he’s looking for someone who will focus on both Ohio and national issues, show strong work ethic and wants to “get things done.” “These are qualifications I think that are very important."

“This is not for the faint-hearted,” he continued. “This is not for someone who just wants to get a seat. This has to be someone who really wants to do the job and do the work and who we think has the ability to do that.”

Two names that are considered unlikely to receive DeWine’s call from the bullpen are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R) and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), both of whom lost the Senate primary to Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno (R) in the spring.

Dolan is unlikely to fall into that boat of being a consensus pick because he is widely viewed as a moderate who would upset Trump and his backers. His selection would also likely prompt a contentious primary challenge — something Republicans of all stripes would like to avoid.

As for LaRose, he put up an underwhelming performance during the Senate run, having led at stages before ultimately finishing behind Moreno and Dolan. He also struggled on the fundraising side, especially against two self-funders.

It also remains to be seen what role Vance plays in who succeeds him. Multiple sources noted that Vance and DeWine have a strong personal relationship despite their political differences, with the Trump World source pointing to the lack of a response from Vance after DeWine called him out for his comments about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio.

While the vice president-elect is likely to have conversations with the governor, DeWine is also expected to lean on counsel of advisers and keep the selection process close to the vest.

Trump's role in selecting Vance's successor is also unclear at this point, but sources say he will have some level of influence.

But one thing that’s universally agreed on is that this is the governor’s choice, no matter how much Vance and others weigh in.

“At the end of the day, it’s a DeWine thing,” the Trump World source said.

The timing of filling the vacancy remains unclear because it is unknown when Vance will officially resign from the upper chamber.

According to a DeWine spokesperson, the governor is mindful of appointing someone as early as possible, especially in order to give the new senator seniority over the incoming class of members who will be inaugurated on Jan. 3.