How the US can help to save Georgia from the brink

An outbreak of street protests in Georgia has turned violent recently, as Georgian Dream (GD) party leaders unleashed masked thugs to brutalize peaceful demonstrators. If this continues, the results could be deadly.

The West could do more to stand by the Georgians who are protesting the GD’s authoritarian rule and its refusal to expand ties with the European Union.

Last month, I visited Georgia with a survey group looking at conditions after flawed parliamentary elections on Oct. 26. Sponsored by the McCain Institute, our group met with a range of civil society and political leaders, journalists and diplomats, and with the GD-led Central Election Commission.

We also talked with young protestors who were beaten by masked “Titushky,” as police stood by. The Titushky are named after the thugs employed a decade ago by then-President Viktor Yanukovych to turn back Ukraine’s Maidan uprising protesters, killing scores. Yanukovych failed and eventually fled to Russia.

One young man told us: “The Titushky beat me and then threatened to rape me…They pulled my hood over my face and punched it. After a while your face becomes numb.”

He continued: “I lost consciousness. A guy next to me had a panic attack and I tried to calm him. I lost consciousness again after a blow to the head. When I woke up, my hood had filled with blood. Perhaps thinking I might die, the Titushky turned me over to the police. They filled out a false arrest warrant.”

In the end, he said, “I received a concussion and broken nose. A lot of others were hurt worse.”

The cycle of violence began with discontent over the elections. Georgia Dream orchestrated large-scale voting irregularities. A reliable exit poll found that over 8 percent of votes cast could not be explained by statistical variance.

It also competed cleverly. It framed the vote as a choice between “peace” that friendly ties with Russia would bring, versus the risk of a Ukraine-like “war” if the pro-European opposition were to come to power. Bidzina Ivanishvili, who became a billionaire in Russia, funds GD and pulls the strings.

On Nov. 28, the European Parliament cited “significant” election irregularities and called for a new vote under international supervision. Hours later, GD said Georgia would suspend talks with the EU on membership accession.

This step shocked many Georgians, even though last June the EU put the accession process on hold. It did this after GD pushed through a new, Russian-style “foreign agent” law aimed at suppressing freedoms. Georgia's adoption of the law led to a wave of street protests.

The current protests, which are of a scale and intensity not seen since Georgia regained independence in 1991, stemmed from anger over the GD’s sharp authoritarian turn and popular support for EU membership — four-fifths of Georgians back it.

The installation by GD on Dec. 29 of a new, anti-Western “president,” Mikheil Kevalishvili, may further fuel protests. Respected President Salome Zourabishvili, whose term has just expired, is marching with protesters.

On Dec. 13, French President Emmanuel Macron lauded Georgia’s European choice and called its betrayal “unacceptable.” The EU has potent leverage: visa-free travel for Georgians in the Schengen zone for short visits. The EU has considered temporarily suspending this privilege.

On Dec. 12, the U.S. prohibited visa issuance to about 20 Georgians.

Many of our interlocutors in Tbilisi urged that the U.S. impose more powerful financial sanctions on Ivanishvili. On Dec. 27, U.S. did so. He will be unable to buy or sell U.S. financial assets or access other U.S. financial services, and he and his family cannot travel to the U.S. Other GD leaders could risk sanctions.

Sanctions can substantially raise the costs of misbehavior. Yet, they are not a panacea. As shown by sanctions levied on Russians over the war in Ukraine, even steep penalties may not lead to a reversal of evildoing. The West also must weigh its interest in cooperation with Georgian authorities on issues such as law enforcement and counterterrorism.

Other international actions can be important. Investors and lenders may be more cautious about countries whose top leaders are sanctioned. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights could investigate, as it is doing over torture of protesters in Belarus in 2020. The International Criminal Court could also be asked to investigate, as in Belarus.

Georgians will determine their own fate. But because their hopes are so closely tied to the West, the U.S. and Europe want to help Georgians preserve their sovereignty and secure their democratic and European futures.

William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at the nonpartisan, nonprofit RAND research institution, a former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia and a former senior adviser at the Helsinki Commission.

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