How the Navy can solve its submarine shortage
One of the key provisions in the Australia-U.S.-U.K. (AUKUS) agreement is for America to sell Australia between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines beginning in 2032. As part of this arrangement, Canberra has committed to contribute $3 billion to support the American submarine industrial base, with an initial payment of $2 billion in 2025 and an additional $100 million for each of the 10 following years.
The Navy plans for Australia’s cash infusion to be directed toward expanding and improving America’s shipyards, reducting, if not eliminating, the current two-to-three year delays in deliveries of the Virginia-class submarines. But even this large infusion of Australian funds may not eliminate the current backlog.
Instead of delivering two boats a year on average, workforce shortages at the shipyards and suppliers have led to the delivery of no more than 1.4 boats on average annually for the past several years. As a result, the Navy’s submarine force level has remained stagnant; it has not been able to operate more than 50 boats for the past decade despite its announced plans for a force of 66 submarines.
In order to meet its commitment to Australia, as well as recover from its own submarine production shortfall, the U.S. must deliver an average of 2.33 boats a year. Only by doing so can it reach its own submarine force goal by 2028. Given ongoing uncertainty about the availability of key shipyard and other workers, however, the Navy may not meet its targets.
It is noteworthy that as late as 1990 the Navy operated over 90 nuclear powered submarines; anything close to that number is clearly out of reach for the foreseeable future. Yet even if the Navy were to meet its 66-submarine force goal, that is still insufficient for supporting operations not only to confront the growing Chinese military threat but also ongoing instability in the Middle East and Russian aggression in Europe. To meet these demands — which are unlikely to diminish for the remainder of this decade or for the next one — the Navy must supplement its force with non-nuclear alternatives.
The Navy is exploring variants of unmanned submarines of various displacements. Smaller unmanned variants are envisaged to carry intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance payloads and electronic warfare systems. On the other hand, a large unmanned submarine, for example the Manta Ray boat, is meant to carry long-range attack weapons, notably the Tomahawk cruise missile. The Navy estimates the cost of a large unmanned undersea vehicle to total about $500 million. In other words, the cost of one of these systems will amount to only one-eighth that of a Virginia-class submarine.
Although it is critical that the Navy procure these boats as quickly as possible, it has already delayed procurement of the first boat for two years, to fiscal year 2027. Further delays cannot be ruled out.
While the unmanned submarine program indicates that the Navy has at last accepted the need for a supplement to its nuclear-powered force, it continues to resist a second potential supplement to that force: diesel-electric submarines. Ever since it began to acquire nuclear-power submarines in the 1950s, the Navy has resisted procuring new diesel-electric variants.
The most modern of these non-nuclear subs have far greater endurance than the conventionally-powered submarines that the Navy once operated. A modern diesel-electric sub, such as the German Type 212, can remain submerged for 30 days and transit about 500 nautical miles. If equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, these submarines, like the unmanned boats, would pose a major additional offensive threat to China and other aggressors. And because they are extremely quiet, they would be exceedingly difficult to target. These submarines would cost about one-fifth or less than the cost of a nuclear-powered boat.
The ongoing Middle East crisis demonstrates that there has been no diminution in the global threats America confronts. Submarines continue to be a critical deterrent, and potent threat, to those that would oppose both American interests and those of its allies.
Put simply, the Navy needs more submarines, and needs them urgently. If it cannot produce considerably more nuclear-powered subs any time soon, it does have non-nuclear alternatives available, and it should pursue both unmanned and manned variants as rapidly as possible.
In addition, America’s allies in both Europe and Asia should increase their own submarine force levels. The AUKUS agreement is a major step in that direction, but it is just one step. Far more has yet to be done if China and other malevolent actors are to be deterred from pursuing their aggressive objectives.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
Date: |
-
World - Financial Times
How the UK can improve its ‘offer’ to the world
Eli Lilly’s chief says the country must do more to attract business, yet budgets are tightYesterday - United Kingdom -
Top stories - NBC News
Compounding pharmacies can resume making tirzepatide as FDA reconsiders shortage
The FDA said in a court filing late Friday that it would allow pharmacists to continue making compounded versions of tirzepatide as it reconsiders whether the drug is in shortage.3 days ago -
Business - Inc.
Here’s How the U.S. Is Handling the IV Fluid Shortage Caused by Helene
The U.S. government and its agencies are providing recovery assistance and granting import waivers to Baxter International, which makes 60 percent of U.S. IV liquids, after its North Carolina ...2 days ago -
Sports - CBS Sports
Group of Five Power Rankings: Boise State, Army, Navy emerge as CFP favorites, but who can crash party?
A look at the hottest Group of Five teams across college football heading into Week 823 hours ago -
Business - Inc.
How Virtual Assistants Can Support and Accelerate Sales
Say goodbye to stress when you streamline sales strategy with the power of outsourcing.2 days ago -
Politics - The Hill
How the US can counter China's economic coercion
The Chinese threat of economic coercion has been effective, but the U.S. has leverage over China due to its reliance on supplying U.S. companies, and can leverage the imbalance in China's export ...2 hours ago - China -
World - The Guardian
Taiwan and trade: how China sees its future with the US after the election
Beijing does not see there being much difference between a Democratic- or Republican-controlled White House. Deciphering the obscure machinations of elite politics is a pursuit that western ...2 days ago - China -
Sports - ESPN
How Tennessee's aggressive defense is carrying the load as the offense finds its way
Known for their high-flying offense, the Vols have flipped the script, staying afloat by keeping opponents off the scoreboard.Yesterday -
Science - The New York Times
Orionids Meteor Shower: When and How to Watch Its Peak
This event is linked to Halley’s comet, and occurs as another comet, Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, remains visible. But a nearly full moon could interfere with some views.4 hours ago
More from The Hill
-
Politics - The Hill
Haberman says Trump's rhetoric becoming 'much more apocalyptic'
Former President Trump's language has shifted to become “much more apocalyptic” than at the start of the election, journalist Maggie Haberman said. “For whatever reason his language, and I think we ...38 minutes ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - The Hill
Trump tells child there will be no cows under Harris
Former President Trump joined "Fox & Friends" on Friday for an in-person interview where he told a 6-year-old child the U.S. “won’t have any cows” if Vice President Harris is elected. In a recorded ...1 hour ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - The Hill
UK Labour Party's efforts to help Harris draw scorn from Trump World
The Labor Party in the UK is sending over 100 current and former staff members to battleground states in the US to volunteer for Vice President Harris, sparking controversy among Republicans who ...1 hour ago - United Kingdom -
Politics - The Hill
The fight for AI labels
The Hill's weekly technology news digest. {beacon} Friday, October 18, 2024 LEADING THE DAY Lawmakers struggle for ways to distinguish real content from AI fakes Image © Getty Images ...1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
How Matt Drudge turned on Trump
“American Psycho,” screamed the banner headline on the Drudge Report this week underneath a photo of former President Trump swaying back and forth listening to music at a town hall in Pennsylvania, ...1 hour ago - Donald Trump