How do we end the war without ending Ukraine itself?
Let us assume that President Donald Trump is correct and that the war, killing and carnage arising from the war in Ukraine must be stopped. The question is, at what cost and to whom?
Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 and controls about 20 percent of Ukraine covering Donbass and Donetsk. These three regions have substantial Russian-leaning populations.
The hard fact is that Russia is the clear aggressor. It and President Vladimir Putin could argue that Ukraine’s entry into the European Union and especially NATO was a direct threat to Russia. Putin made his complaints about NATO’s threat to Russia and its ignoring of Moscow’s interests known in his 2007 Munich Security Conference remarks.
Yet, Putin’s arguments rest in the notion that Russia is Ukraine and Ukraine is Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia will never be whole. Trump recognizes this view. In October, he said Ukraine was always “the apple” in Putin’s eye.
Sometimes the human element is never understood despite facts and reality. Putin may reflect this vis a vis Ukraine. Trump too has idiosyncratic views that clash with reality. His obsession with tariffs to cope with the deficits in the U.S. trade balance is one. Trump believes that tariffs will build down debt and deficits. Reality defies that.
Trump also ignores that accounting has two balances: the trade and capital accounts. Trade is the balance of all goods and services consumed by a country. Here the U.S. has large deficits. However, in the capital account, the U.S. has over $1 trillion surplus. That is financing U.S. debt and deficits. But Trump does not seem to recognize this.
Trump asserts, some would say hyperbolically, that had he been president in 2022, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine. This is unprovable. But assuming Trump is correct, he has a clear hold over Putin.
Is this because both are like-minded and Putin will accept Trump’s arguments? Does Trump have special leverage over Putin either in terms of willpower or perhaps sufficiently damning intelligence no one else does?
But to be objective, this war must end. The damage being done to both sides is absurd in a rational world. Trump is right.
So how does this war end? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth tipped the administration’s negotiating hand at the Munich Defense Conference in Germany. Ukraine will not join NATO. And there will be no territorial concessions. The White House tried to soften those comments and merely added to the confusion.
Those are not unrealistic terms. The question is what are the quid pro quos to provide to Ukraine if not? As Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted, he and Ukraine will not accept dictated terms for peace.
Neville Chamberlain and Munich’s peace in our time are applied to Trump. If peace is so important, will it come at Ukraine’s expense? Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.), John McCain’s wingman, is taking a tough stand on not abandoning Ukraine. Winston Churchill, he is not. But will he have any influence?
Trump’s response is that Europe must assume the responsibility and burden for Ukraine’s security and support, not the United States. At face value, this is not unreasonable. However, there is no Europe. There are states in Europe.
France and Germany are in political difficulty without strong leadership. How much money could Europe raise for Ukraine — the hundreds of billions to sustain the military and rebuild a devastated country? The United Kingdom is not part of the European Union. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has inferred Britain could deploy troops to Ukraine.
But he has a problem. The U.K. musters an army of 74,000 with cuts possible. Press reports show how the force has been “hollowed out” and lacks capability to fight effectively. Whether correct or not, at most the U.K. could deploy a force of thousands, at best, which will be insufficient.
And there is a larger and possibly untenable matter of NATO and its Article 5 in which “an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.”
Would that apply if war broke out between European NATO states in Ukraine and Russia? That of course raises the question of escalation even if Trump prevails and the agreement makes no concessions on territory or NATO membership. And suppose Europe is not keen to take on this responsibility it cannot afford or risk expanding the conflict?
If he is to succeed, the great dealmaker better have many aces up his sleeve.
Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is United Press International’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, senior advisor at Washington D.C.’s Atlantic Council, chairman of two private companies and principal author of the shock and awe military doctrine. His next book, due in 2025, is “The Great Paradox: Strategic Thinking in an Unstrategic World.”
-
Trump says he will end the war in Ukraine – but how, and who will benefit? Our panel responds | Olga Chyzh and others
The US president is breaking every negotiating rule in the book, to the bewilderment of his allies. Europe is now at a crossroads Continue reading...The Guardian - 2d -
Trump says Starmer and Macron 'haven't done anything' to end Ukraine war
Trump's criticisms come as the UK and French leaders prepare to visit the White House next week.BBC News - 2d -
Why Zelenskyy offered to step down if Ukraine joins NATO, war ends
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to leave his post if the war with Russia ends and if the U.S. ally gets NATO membership. Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's ...CBS News - 7h -
Zelensky says he hopes to end Ukraine war 'this year'
The Ukrainian president was speaking at a summit to mark the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.BBC News - 1h -
How do we defend free speech – without falling prey to extremism? | Kenneth Roth
JD Vance says Europe should not shun far-right parties. He seems to have forgotten 1933, but hits a key conundrum. In his speech last week at the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance pressed ...The Guardian - 3d -
Let’s end remote work without accountability in the federal workforce
It’s important to understand the particulars of the federal employment system that makes remote work so problematic.The Hill - 2d -
Trump: Putin and Zelenskyy 'have to get together' to end the war
President Trump was asked about his comments towards Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin and called on the two leaders to meet in order to end the war between the ...NBC News - 2d -
Can Europe afford to defend itself without the US?
Also in this newsletter: The EU’s peace offering in Trump’s trade warFinancial Times - 3d -
5 Photos Show How the Ukraine War Changed
On the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Tyler Hicks, a war photographer for The New York Times, looks back at five photos he took during the conflict and reflects on how the rules ...The New York Times - 11h
More from The Hill
-
On IVF, Trump’s team should proceed with extreme caution
President Trump has directed his Domestic Policy Council to develop recommendations to lower costs and reduce barriers to IVF, but experts have expressed concerns about the complexity and ethics of ...The Hill - 14m -
OPM tells HR leaders that response to Musk is 'voluntary'
The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) informed agency leaders that employee response to an email asking for a recap of what they accomplished this week is voluntary and that failure to do so ...The Hill - 23m -
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joining Columbia University as fellow
Mike Pompeo, President Trump’s secretary of State in his first term, is joining Columbia University as a fellow starting in March. He will be joining the Institute of Global Politics as a ...The Hill - 35m -
Republican files article of impeachment against judge who ordered agencies to restore scrubbed data
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) on Monday introduced an impeachment resolution against a federal judge who ordered federal health agencies to temporarily restore online datasets scrubbed as part of the ...The Hill - 35m -
Trump’s Russia policy is a dangerous anachronism
This anachronism imposes on the contemporary world a scheme of the two spheres of control, one of which does not actually exist.The Hill - 44m
More in Politics
-
'We paid': Macron corrects Trump when he suggests Europe is offering Ukraine a loan
During a meeting in the Oval Office, French President Emmanuel Macron corrected President Donald Trump when he suggested that Europe offered a loan to Ukraine. Macron responded by correcting Trump, ...NBC News - 10m -
On IVF, Trump’s team should proceed with extreme caution
President Trump has directed his Domestic Policy Council to develop recommendations to lower costs and reduce barriers to IVF, but experts have expressed concerns about the complexity and ethics of ...The Hill - 14m -
Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico are 'on time, on schedule'
During a White House press conference, President Trump told reporters that his administration would move forward with planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico.NBC News - 19m -
OPM tells HR leaders that response to Musk is 'voluntary'
The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) informed agency leaders that employee response to an email asking for a recap of what they accomplished this week is voluntary and that failure to do so ...The Hill - 23m -
Trump and Macron discuss way forward for Ukraine and Russia at press conference
President Trump and French President Macron held a joint press conference at the White House that largely centered around the ongoing negotiations to end the war in Ukraine after Russia's invasion ...NBC News - 27m