Trump’s Russia policy is a dangerous anachronism
Let’s call the Trump administration’s approach to Russia an anachronism. It applies the realism doctrine of the Cold War long past its expiration date.
The theory of realism in international relations took the balance of powers during the Cold War as given, based on the fact that, whether we liked it or not, the aftermath of World War II divided the world into the areas controlled by the West and the Soviet Union as laid out at the Yalta Conference. They were called the spheres of influence, but this notion is deceptive, as they were actually the spheres of control and claims to such.
It was believed that the spheres of control between on the one side the U.S., NATO and Japan and on the other the USSR and the Warsaw Pact nations would create a stable equilibrium with sufficient containment and deterrence. In any case, there was nowhere else to go, which made realism realistic.
Now the U.S.-NATO-Japan sphere has expanded to include the former Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the formerly neutral Sweden and Finland, the nations of the former Yugoslavia (except Serbia), and even former Soviet republics such as the Baltic States formally —and, informally, Ukraine, Moldova and others.
The second sphere has narrowed to Russia and its fair-weather allies Belarus and North Korea. And Russia just lost its Syrian beachhead.
Whereas the first sphere has increased significantly, the second has decreased and practically ceased to exist. Russia's nuclear arsenal is the only thing maintaining its position as a global actor, but there is no sphere of control.
A true realism would recognize this new reality. Russia claims the expired sphere of control as its inherent entitlement, as seen in the ultimatum of December 2021, but it does not exist — at least not yet. Nevertheless, an anachronism has emerged, including within the Trump administration and in academic circles, imposing on the contemporary world a scheme of two spheres of control, one of which no longer exists.
It assumes that the world has not changed over the last 35 years since the Cold War ended in 1989. Anachronism assumes that Russia’s claim to the former Soviet-Warsaw Pact sphere of control is something natural that must be taken at face value, and that it is not just a claim but an entitlement with the right to exist.
But today, the doctrine of the two spheres does not exist geographically, demographically or strategically. It is a fallacy of the wrong map and the wrong time. Anachronists see a map of the world whose time has long gone and which is no more — but, by operating under its assumptions, they risk bringing it back.
This is more than an analytical error — it is a dangerous delusion. Precisely because the second sphere does not exist, the recognition of Russia’s claim to the sphere makes the situation unstable. The struggle for the realization of the second sphere becomes a source of volatility while containment and deterrence lose their power.
Misattribution on the U.S. side may lead to miscalculation on Russia’s side. When the leaders of the USSR had their own sphere of control and stuck to it according to the Brezhnev Doctrine, containment and deterrence held them back. When the leaders of Russia lack what they claim they can and should have — not only according to their own claims but also according to the recognition of the Trump administration — the risk of war for regaining the sphere of control increases. Doling out the entitlement by doctrine makes taking it by force more likely.
Anachronism is a dangerous fallacy that may beget a ruinous reality.
Michael S. Bernstam is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
-
America's Russia policy is a failure of critical thinking and foresight
This persistent inability to appreciate the thinking exposed by another great power is especially striking given that Russia’s policies have not changed at all since the days of Ivan the Terrible ...The Hill - 2d -
Trump's dangerous theory on birthright citizenship contradicts the Founders' goals
By its own terms, the 14th Amendment applies to “all persons” born in the United States, disqualifying no one by parentage.The Hill - 8h -
Trump 'miscalculation' may mean danger for Zelenskyy, win for Putin: Source
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law early on Feb. 24, 2022, under Kyiv skies still tinged black by the smoke from Russian missile strikes.ABC News - 3h -
Trump's Ukraine policy alarming European leaders
There is alarm in Europe as leaders try to come to terms with the major foreign policy shift on Ukraine from the Trump administration. This week President Trump blamed Ukraine for Russia's invasion ...CBS News - 3d -
Ukraine or Russia: Whose Side Is Trump On?
Nick asks former UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt.BBC News - 4d -
Ukraine and Russia mark 3 years of war amid major shift in U.S. policy
A group of European leaders and Canada's prime minister are in Kyiv to support Ukraine's president. He faces a shift in U.S. policy as President Trump moves to end the war by negotiating one-on-one ...CBS News - 10h -
Democrats won’t fight Trump’s tariff policies. On trade, Trump is a Democrat.
President Donald Trump's recent trade policy has been met with surprising support from congressional Democrats, despite his protectionist policies being more aligned with progressive Democrats than ...The Hill - 1d -
Fed Flags Rising Inflation Risks and Rising Uncertainty About Trump’s Policies
Rates cuts are still on the menu, but like many businesses, Fed officials are having a tough time judging the impact of Trump’s tariff and immigration plans.Inc. - 4d -
What are we to make of Trump’s Ukraine policy? | Matt Duss
In Trump’s jungle, the powerful make decisions the weak must simply accept – international law and human rights be damned. It’s been quite a week for US foreign policy. Following a phone call last ...The Guardian - 3d
More from The Hill
-
Trump, Macron project unity amid growing cracks
Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter {beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story Trump, Macron project unity amid Ukraine-Russia divide President ...The Hill - 38m -
Democrats introduce bill to protect transgender service members
A group of Democrats have introduced a bill to protect diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the military following President Trump's January executive order to dismantle such programming. The ...The Hill - 49m -
'This is insane': Democratic senator rips DOJ official calling prosecutors 'Trump's lawyers'
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) strongly criticized the interim attorney for D.C., Ed Martin, for describing prosecutors as "President Trump's lawyers," calling his statement "insane." In a social ...The Hill - 58m -
Trump's AI safety cuts
Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story AI safety institute faces cuts under Trump Potential cuts to the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) are ...The Hill - 1h -
Special counsel determines some probationary layoffs violate law, asks for intervention
The Office of the Special Counsel (OSC) has determined that six probationary employees were improperly terminated, asking an employment body to intervene and temporarily bar the removals in a ...The Hill - 1h
More in Politics
-
Trump, Macron project unity amid growing cracks
Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter {beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story Trump, Macron project unity amid Ukraine-Russia divide President ...The Hill - 38m -
Hundreds protest Iowa bill ending civil rights protections for transgender people
Protesters filled the Iowa state capitol as House lawmakers began fast-tracking a bill that would remove civil rights protections for transgender people from the Iowa Civil Rights Act.NBC News - 47m -
Democrats introduce bill to protect transgender service members
A group of Democrats have introduced a bill to protect diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the military following President Trump's January executive order to dismantle such programming. The ...The Hill - 49m -
'This is insane': Democratic senator rips DOJ official calling prosecutors 'Trump's lawyers'
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) strongly criticized the interim attorney for D.C., Ed Martin, for describing prosecutors as "President Trump's lawyers," calling his statement "insane." In a social ...The Hill - 58m -
Trump's AI safety cuts
Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story AI safety institute faces cuts under Trump Potential cuts to the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) are ...The Hill - 1h