Harris maintains double-digit lead over Trump with youth voters in Harvard survey

Vice President Harris has a 2-to-1 advantage among voters aged 18 to 29 over former President Trump, but that advantage shrinks to only a 9-point lead in battleground states, according to the last Harvard Institute of Politics survey before Election Day.

Harris’s 28-point lead over Trump is 3 points lower than in the September poll, but support for Harris is still almost double that of President Biden, according to Harvard’s polling from earlier in the year.

“Young Americans’ attitudes, concerns, and candidate preferences come through loud and clear in our latest Harvard Youth Poll,” said Setti Warren, the institute's director. “As we approach the final sprint to Election Day, we see that young people across the country are continuing to pay attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard.”

The new poll also found a growing enthusiasm gap among young Harris and Trump voters: 71 percent of Harris voters said they plan to vote compared to only 59 percent of Trump voters.

In swing states, 1 in 2 voters said they plan on voting for Harris, while Trump registered 41 percent in support. Additionally, 4 percent said they'd vote for a third party, and 6 percent were undecided.

Close to 3 in 5 young voters said they planned to vote or have already cast their ballot, which is consistent with previous polling showing a marked increase in youth participation in elections since 2018.

The gender gap between Harris and Trump has also continued to widen, with the vice president holding a 10-point lead among young male voters and a 30-point lead among women. In the spring, that gap was only 8 points.

“The political gap between young men and young women has emerged as a key feature of this election. The Harris and Trump campaigns have deployed extensive resources to reach both groups. Overall, young voters break strongly for Harris in this poll,” said Anil Cacodcar, chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project.

Harris has dedicated considerable campaign resources to reaching younger voters, including a commitment to visit 150 college campuses. Her staff has also created numerous memes and video edits on social platform X, Instagram and TikTok to boost youth engagement.

Much of her messaging has focused on reproductive access, and of those polled by Harvard, Harris holds a 46-point advantage in trust about reproductive rights.

Trump has focused on reaching out to younger male voters, especially white men, visiting SEC football games and participating in events with the NELK Boys and podcaster Joe Rogan.

Young white men are also the only group that believes Trump is a stronger, more patriotic and funnier candidate compared to all other young voters.

Young voters believe Harris is more competent, honest and reliable, among the most important traits for those polled when deciding whom to vote for.

Only 1 in 5 Americans polled expressed confidence in a peaceful transition of power after the election.