Harris camp thinks she’s regained edge on Trump

Vice President Harris and her supporters believe they have the edge in the final hours of the presidential campaign, after several weeks when the campaign felt it was on shaky ground as former President Trump gained momentum.

The Harris camp points to late-deciding voters who have been breaking toward them in the days before the election and a surprise Iowa poll that showed Harris ahead of Trump in a reliably red state.

They also argue their robust ground operation is primed to carry the vice president to victory, and that they will win a huge advantage with female voters.

“Vice President Harris looks to be in a strong position going into Election Day,” said Jamal Simmons, who served as Harris’s communications director until last year. “The data is leaning in her direction and she’s got the gait of a winner."

“People are ready to turn the page on the Trump era,” Simmons added.

Those remarks reflect what dozens of Democrats — from strategists and political operatives to lawmakers — have been feeling since the summer, when Harris rose in polls after she became the nominee.

Since then it’s been an emotional roller coaster for Democrats, who saw Harris surge only to plateau in the final month of the campaign.

Over the last several weeks, Democrats worried that Harris’s economic message hadn’t broken through and that there were cracks in the critical "blue wall" states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Now, in the homestretch, the party is feeling more optimistic about her standing.

First, the campaign started to notice a shift in their internal numbers on the heels of a Trump rally in New York City, where a comedian made disparaging comments about Latinos. Focus groups showed the former president lost ground following the rally, campaign aides say.

Senior campaign officials said late last week that the campaign’s internal data showed them winning by double digits a critical group of battleground-state voters who made up their minds about Harris in the last week.

And that was before the Iowa poll continued to boost Harris’s prospects. The poll, conducted by The Des Moines Register/Mediacom, showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump, with 47 percent support to his 44 percent.

One strategist close to the campaign said the reason the Iowa poll was such good news for Harris is because they view the survey’s results as indicative of what’s happening around the country.

“Even if she doesn’t win Iowa, it’s a good bellwether for other states like Michigan and Wisconsin and maybe Pennsylvania,” the strategist said. “It shows that women and senior citizens are coming out in full force and that means she’s on the path to victory.”

The latest New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground states released Sunday showed Harris with minor leads over Trump in several states, including Nevada, where Harris leads with 49 percent support to 46; North Carolina, where she leads 48 percent to 46; and Wisconsin, where she’s up 49 percent to 47.

The poll shows her leading Trump by 1 point in Georgia and the two tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The only state where Trump was ahead in the polling was Arizona, where he leads with 49 percent support to Harris's 45.

An NBC News poll Monday also showed Harris with a 20-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion. Harris also has an edge over Trump on the issue of who looks out for the middle class.

Democratic strategist Fernand Amandi, who helped former President Obama win Florida in the 2008 and 2012 elections, was also picking up on a “big vibe shift” from Democrats in the last week.

Amandi attributed the change to a few positive factors but said Trump’s dark rhetoric was contributing to the shift in polling. Last week, Trump called former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) — who has endorsed Harris — a “war hawk” who should be fired upon with guns.

“Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK?" Trump said at a campaign event in Arizona with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. “Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

Trump has argued he was referring to Cheney experiencing combat, not a firing squad.

Over the weekend, while campaigning in Pennsylvania, Trump also told supporters that he shouldn’t have left office when he lost the 2020 election and described Democrats as “demonic.” He also said he wouldn’t mind if a gunman taking aim at him also shot through “the fake news.”

“It’s all very chaotic and disturbing, and it’s confirming all the worst fears coming out of the Harris campaign about him,” Amandi said.

Still, Democrats known for their nervousness aren’t exactly settled. One strategist said that while it seemed the energy had shifted to Harris, polls are within the margin of error and the race is effectively a dead heat.

Democrats also pointed to NBC polling that showed two-thirds of voters say the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Trump also has a double-digit lead over Harris on the economy (51 to 41 percent) and also on who would better deal with the cost of living (52 to 40 percent).

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told The Hill on Monday that while “we’re certainly not the heavy favorites … we do think we have momentum on our side.”

“There’s real concern about this election. When you have that, you’re going to be always nervous. Even if you were the heavy favorite, you would be nervous.”

While Amandi said Harris had more momentum, he stopped shy of saying he was optimistic.

“I’ll feel optimistic when the networks call 270,” he said, referring to the magic number of votes needed to win the Electoral College.

Al Weaver contributed.