GOP wins back control of the Senate

Republicans have wrested back control of the Senate after four years in the minority, positioning the GOP to play a massive role on nominations and in looming policy battles regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerges victorious in the presidential race.

It’s a massive, if largely expected, win for the GOP, which invested heavily in candidate recruitment this cycle. Armed with a highly favorable map, national Republicans worked competitive primaries in battleground states, hoping to maximize their offensive strength in the general election. It worked.

Republicans flipped West Virginia early in the night and added Ohio to their column around 11:30 p.m. Republican Tim Sheehy has led in most recent polling in Montana, though it is too early for an official call there.

They have other possible pick-up opportunities in states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania. But Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) both won reelection, closing off a path for Democrats to offset their losses by flipping a GOP-held seat.

The party will take control just as longtime GOP leader Mitch McConnell steps down from his role atop the conference, and it’s still unclear who will take his place. Elections for Senate GOP leadership are slated to occur next week, with two longtime McConnell allies, Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas), and conservative Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) running for what will become majority leader next term. Others could still jump into the election.

There is not yet a call in the presidential race, but if Harris wins, the chamber would become an instant logjam for her administration. Republicans have signaled they’ll even make Cabinet confirmations a fight, meaning any major policy initiatives from the current vice president would be an incredibly tough sell.

But a Republican-led Senate would be a boon to a Trump presidency, with the ability to confirm nominees and control legislation on the floor. The size of the majority will matter, since there are still several Republicans in the Senate that regularly broke with Trump during his presidential term, including Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. They’re likely to become outsized voices in this newfound Senate majority, especially if Trump is in the White House. However, if Republicans win more seats, those moderate voices will lose power on nominees and other items subject to a simple-majority threshold for passage.

Republican candidates in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are leading as of early Wednesday and party operatives believe that their fates will largely depend on Trump’s performance. Democratic candidates in those states are largely not outrunning Harris. Wins in those three states could grow a GOP majority to 55 seats since Republicans are favored to win in Montana. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego maintains a comfortable lead and no results are available in Nevada, which is notorious for counting ballots slowly.

Due to the 60-vote threshold for most legislation, the GOP will still have to work with Democrats on certain priorities. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is expected to stay on as the top Democrat in the chamber after four years leading the Senate; he had insisted until the end that his party would defy the odds, as it did in 2022 when Democrats gained a Senate seat.

The party knew this cycle was going to be tougher. They had two incumbent Democrats running in red states — Ohio and Montana — and Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) opted for retirement, effectively handing Republicans that seat. The best pickup opportunities were in red states: Texas and Florida.

Still, the chamber — barring an all-out implosion of the filibuster — will require bipartisan collaboration to get most legislation through. That includes must-pass legislation that will come up next year, like government funding and raising the debt limit. Republicans have also insisted they want to tackle legislation addressing core conservative issues, a mission that would be aided by a Republican presidency and House, neither of which have been called yet. “As a new Republican Senate majority, our focus will be to take on an agenda that reflects America’s priorities — lower prices, less spending, secure borders, and American energy dominance,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), current GOP conference chair, said in a statement late Tuesday night.

With this cycle sealed, Democrats are expected to immediately go on the campaign offensive. The party has been salivating over potential pick-up opportunities in North Carolina and Texas in 2026, and has only a handful of competitive seats to defend, namely Georgia and Michigan.