© Julia Demaree Nikhinson and Susan Walsh, Associated Press |
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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are rolling the dice with high-profile events outside the traditional battlegrounds with only eight days to go, as the nation braces for what could be the closest outcome in a generation.
More than 45 million people have already voted — including President Biden — with more than a quarter of those votes coming in the seven battlegrounds that will determine who wins the White House:
AZ: 1.3m GA: 2.8m MI: 1.9m NC: 2.8m
NV: 640k PA: 1.4m WI: 860k Trump and Harris will spend the bulk of their time before Nov. 5 in those states, although both candidates are taking notable detours they hope will push them over the top. -
Harris will make her closing argument Tuesday from the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, D.C., where her campaign has requested a permit for up to 20,000 attendees.
- The Ellipse is notable for being the place where Trump spoke to his supporters before hundreds rioted on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021.
Harris’s closing message has in part focused on calling Trump a “fascist” threat to democracy. Not all Democrats agree that this is the most effective closing message.
The New York Times reports that the largest super PAC working to elect Harris sent an email to allies over the weekend warning that “attacking Trump’s fascism is not that persuasive.”
“Purely negative attacks on Trump’s character are less effective than contrast messages that include positive details about Kamala Harris’s plans to address the needs of everyday Americans,” the email from Future Forward said. Still, Harris’s campaign got an unexpected assist over the weekend in their efforts to frame Trump’s movement as extreme. -
Trump’s Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden featured a warm-up act by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who made several crude jokes about Latinos and at one point described Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”
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Hinchcliffe insists the bit is being taken out of context and that comedy routines should be judged separately from political speeches.
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The Trump campaign is clearly feeling the heat, seeking distance from Hinchcliffe and describing the remarks as being in “poor taste.”
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Several GOP lawmakers also denounced the remarks.
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Harris seized on the controversy, telling reporters: "Donald Trump spends full-time trying to have Americans point their finger at each other, fans the fuel of hate and division, and that’s why people are exhausted with him. … People are literally ready to turn the page. They’re tired of it."
The controversy consumed what should have been a strong moment for Trump’s campaign. - Trump drew tens of thousands of supporters to an event in a deep blue city.
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The rally featured a rare appearance by former first lady Melania Trump.
- Trump unveiled a new policy of extending tax credits to family caregivers.
Trump, meanwhile, is campaigning during the final week as if he’s got a big lead and is looking to run up the score.
The GOP nominee has campaign rallies planned in both New Mexico and Virginia before Election Day. Neither state is seen as a true battleground. - Trump lost Virginia by 10 points in 2020, and the state hasn’t gone for the GOP nominee in 20 years.
- Trump lost New Mexico by 11 points in 2020, which last went for the GOP nominee in 2004.
💡 Perspectives:
The Hill: Polls suggest Trump has the edge.
The Liberal Patriot: Are young men really going to vote for Trump?
The Hill: The GOP’s crackup: A clash between liberty and democracy.
The Hill: Trump’s secret weapon may tip the election.
The Hill: Harris slips in the polls, but not with university professors.
The Wall Street Journal: America is having a panic attack over the election.
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Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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Dems tantalized by potential for Texas-sized upset
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Republicans are favored to win back the Senate, with The Hill/Decision Desk HQ election model giving the GOP a 72 percent chance of a majority. But Democrats are closely watching races in Texas and Nebraska that could limit the GOP’s potential majority — or spoil their efforts entirely.
The latest survey from The New York Times/Siena College finds Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) clinging to small leads and running far behind former President Trump in their home states. - Texas: Trump leads by 10 points, while Cruz leads Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) by 4 points.
- Nebraska: Trump leads by 15 points, while Fischer leads independent candidate Dan Osborn by 2 points.
Can Democrats finally notch a signature win in Texas?: According to New York Times polling analyst Nate Cohn, “A 6 pt gap between Cruz and Trump is the range where you can definitely contemplate Allred victory.”
Harris campaigned with Allred in Houston over the weekend, with an assist from Beyoncé. The event drew about 30,000 people, according to the Harris campaign. Of course, Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue, but it has thus far proven to be fool’s gold.
“Harris is probably wasting her time in the great state of Texas,” former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) told NewsNation’s Blake Burman. -
Even if Republicans were to blow both races, they could still win a majority by flipping seats in red states, such as West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, or by pulling out victory in one of several presidential battlegrounds, including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows the battle for the House in toss-up territory, with Republicans holding a 54 percent chance of maintaining a majority.
The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Emily Brooks detail the seven seats Republicans think they can flip. -
Those seats are currently held by: Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Matt Cartwright (Pa.), Jared Golden (Maine), Mary Peltola (Alaska), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Yadira Caraveo (Colo.) and Susan Wild (Pa.).
Where do Democrats see pick-up opportunities? -
They're targeting: GOP Reps. Brandon Williams (N.Y.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Anthony D’Esposito (N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), John Duarte (Calif.), David Schweikert (Ariz.) & Mike Garcia (Calif.).
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Elections roundup: Drop box fires spark concern; courts prep for Election Day deluge
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Fires at ballot drop boxes in Washington and Oregon are under investigation, with potentially hundreds of ballots destroyed in districts featuring key races. -
In Vancouver, Wash., hundreds of ballots were destroyed in an apparent arson. Authorities are urging voters who may have used the drop box over the weekend to reach out to the Clark County Elections Office. The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman notes the fire in Washington’s 3rd District could be impactful, as Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) is a top target for Republicans after triumphing in her district by 2,639 votes in 2022.
- In Portland, Ore., an “incendiary device” sparked a fire in a drop box, damaging only three ballots. Those voters are being contacted through the unique identifier on the ballot envelope.
Legal fights are brewing across the country as the courts deal with a deluge of challenges in the battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of the election.
The Hill’s Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld detail the states that have been at the epicenter of legal challenges so far. A few notable cases: -
The Supreme Court may decide on the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Virginia, where Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) sought to remove about 1,600 noncitizens from the voter roles. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with a lower court that the names could not be removed this close to an election.
- Nevada’s Supreme Court ruled Monday that late mail-in ballot can be counted, ruling against Republicans in the state.
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"The Supreme Court's future is on the ballot," by the Editorial Board for The Wall Street Journal.
"Why I'm voting," by The New York Times' Editorial Board.
"Bezos teaches Dems a valuable lesson about billionaires," by Matt Stoller for The BIG Newsletter.
"The next administration can reframe asylum rules to address the immigration crisis," by David Strange and Alberto R. Gonzales for The Hill. |
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8 days until Election Day. 84 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Tuesday - Harris will deliver a speech in Washington, D.C., at the Ellipse near the White House.
- Trump will make multiple campaign stops across Pennsylvania.
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There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@thehill.com | |
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