Election forecaster moves North Carolina presidential race to 'toss-up'
![Election forecaster moves North Carolina presidential race to 'toss-up'](https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/08/Harris-Donald-Trump-08.10.png?w=900)
A leading election forecaster shifted its rating of the presidential race for North Carolina to “toss-up,” marking another gain for Vice President Harris’s campaign.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Tuesday that it was moving North Carolina from the “leans Republican” column to a toss-up, as support for Harris builds not only in the Tar Heel State but across the country.
According to the election handicapper, North Carolina now joins Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania as toss-up states.
President Biden won all of those states in 2020 except for North Carolina. They have been a critical focus of the 2024 election cycle, as they were each decided by 3 points or less last election.
“This is the first time this cycle that we have moved any electoral votes away from the Republican column into the Toss-up column,” analysts wrote.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted that there has been a “longer-running argument” that North Carolina would be more in play for Democrats than Georgia in this election.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was considered to be a potential running mate for Harris, and the two have campaigned together recently.
The forecasters said Harris is polling better in North Carolina than she is in Georgia, but they believe the Peach State will swing more left this November “despite the polls.”
The larger Black population and Democratic support in Atlanta outweighs North Carolina’s growth in recent years, they said.
“All that said, both states are close enough — and similar enough to the other key swing states in this election — that we don’t think it makes sense to rate one as Toss-up and the other as Leans Republican anymore,” they wrote. “Hence our rating change today.”
North Carolina is still the “reddest” swing state of the bunch, the analysts say, and they are skeptical it could turn blue for Harris, but that could change in the next two months.
“Now that the election is getting closer and we are almost past the conventions, the polls probably should carry more weight, imperfect instruments though they are,” they wrote.
If Harris can maintain or build upon the momentum generated during the state of her campaign, “it may be that one or more of these ‘Magnificent Seven,’ to borrow the famous movie title, won’t be Toss-ups anymore.”
Date: |
Topics
-
NBC News - Politics
Harris seeks to build on debate momentum with push to flip North Carolina
The Democratic presidential nominee will hold two rallies in the state on Thursday, followed by a pair of events in Pennsylvania on Friday.4 hours ago -
Financial Times - World
Japan gears up for ‘wild west’ leadership race
Crowded field to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as ruling party chief could crown first female or youngest-ever leader10 hours ago - Japan -
The Wall Street Journal - World
Is the 2024 Presidential Election Over?
Trump has a communication problem, but Harris has a character problem. It isn’t over.16 hours ago -
The Guardian - World
Taylor Swift’s Harris endorsement has thrilled fans – but will it move the election needle?
US Swifties who were waiting for their idol’s statement are ‘hopeful’ about its impact as Republicans criticize the move. Addy Al-Saigh had already gone to bed on Tuesday night when her phone woke ...19 hours ago -
NBC News - Politics
The first general election ballots of the presidential race are in the mail
The first ballots of the 2024 general election are heading to voters, as Alabama officials started mailing them out on Wednesday, kicking off presidential voting.19 hours ago -
ABC News - Sports
IOC move on election rules puts up legal hurdles to Coe running for top Olympic job
The IOC has clarified its complex election rules in a move that could block Sebastian Coe running for the top Olympic job21 hours ago - Olympics -
ABC News - Top stories
Fact-checking Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's 1st presidential debate
ABC News live fact-checked Harris and Trump's statements for answers that were exaggerated, needed more context or were false.22 hours ago - Kamala Harris -
ESPN - Sports
Brazil, Argentina stumble as CONMEBOL's World Cup race heats up
Tim Vickery takes a look at what was yet another topsy-turvy round of FIFA World Cup qualifiers in South America.23 hours ago - World Cup -
The Hill - Politics
GOP race to replace McConnell heats up
The leadership race to replace retiring Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is heating up as Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) announced Tuesday that he will transfer $4 million ...Yesterday -
ABC News - Top stories
Key takeaways from Harris-Trump ABC News debate
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump debated for the first time on Tuesday, a consequential matchup with just eight weeks until Election Day.Yesterday - Donald Trump
More from The Hill
-
The Hill - Politics
Koch-affiliated Libre Initiative makes endorsements in Michigan, Connecticut
The Libre Initiative Action is rolling out endorsements for three tight congressional races on Thursday, hoping to win elections to the House and Senate for Republicans in Michigan and Connecticut. ...25 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Most in new survey wary of AI-powered election information
Most Americans say they don’t trust AI-powered chatbots to produce accurate information about the 2024 election, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs ...27 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
When America welcomes refugees to its shores, we all win
The United States has long been a beacon for those fleeing war, persecution and violence. We must keep this legacy alive.27 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Black voters in key battleground states highly motivated to vote in November: poll
Black voters in key battleground states are highly motivated to cast their ballots in this year’s election, according to new polling, following Vice President Harris’s ascension to the top of the ...33 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
A cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza will require a change of framework
The negotiated deal’s framework allows Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who does not want the war to end, to sabotage it every step of the way.57 minutes ago